- This topic has 8 replies, 6 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 2 months ago by no_such_reality.
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August 15, 2006 at 1:34 PM #7207August 15, 2006 at 3:29 PM #31977(former)FormerSanDieganParticipant
“Note: I noticed that CTX and LEND both had extrodinary advances in the market today. Who are these investors? I have a bridge I’d like to sell them.”
Maybe the short sellers are buying the shares to lock in their profits. Not sure you want to sell a bridge to those guys.
August 15, 2006 at 3:44 PM #31979(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantInteresting tidbits from this article:
Monthly Carrying Costs
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Southland buyers committed themselves to paying was $2,437 last month, the same as the previous month and up from $2,052 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are about 6.2 percent above typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle.
Interesting that we are ~ 6% above the last peak in this number. I’d like to see a long-term plot of monthly mortgage cost over the last two SD or SO Cal real estate cycles.
Anyone know where we might find ?
Statistical Anomaly … Not
The article has the following statement “Southland sales have declined for eight consecutive months on a year-over-year basis.” followed by a comment that the drop may be “nothing more than a statistical blip,”
Doesn’t the first comment indicate that it’s a trend. A statistical blip would be a data point that deviates from the trend, not one that confirms it. What a dope !August 15, 2006 at 3:51 PM #31981rocketmanParticipantI can imagine that they might be buying for that reason, however if they can move volume like that, then yes, I would like to sell them a bridge like the one I sold Robert McCulloch.
August 15, 2006 at 5:50 PM #31986anParticipantWow, I’ve been following DQNews data for awhile now and the declining rate of appreciation is increasing. It’s -1.8% in San Diego now. It was 0.8% last month.
August 15, 2006 at 9:22 PM #32000powaysellerParticipantWhat ever happened to Rightside’s short trade of LEND? Do you guys think he’s still hauling in the dough on that trade? I missed out on a good trade…, but I was too chicken to short any stocks.
an – increasing and decreasing rates of change (now I know why we had to study derivatives in calculus) forecast the direction of the market, right? Real estate prices slowly top rising, top out, slowly turn down, then pick up speed. I think it will accelerate onthe way down. Maybe next month it is -4%.
August 16, 2006 at 7:11 AM #32010CaliforniabrownbearParticipantThis story made it to the Drudge Report yesterday!
August 16, 2006 at 12:25 PM #32037rocketmanParticipantThanks Powerseller
I am glad you said that you were nervous to short LEND. I am a little too nervous to jump in right now as well. I think we missed the boat on LEND (down .01% today) until the Fed makes another cut.
As another note, the Network’s up here in the Bay area have been running short news stories on the decline of real estate prices up here in the Bay area. Someone (of RE authority) has been sending them PR reports that prices have declined 25% (what a bunch of baloney) and that this is a “good time to jump in and buy”. I was thinking of sending them a statement indicating that they need to check their sources for accuracy before releasing such news.
August 16, 2006 at 3:15 PM #32057no_such_realityParticipantsending them PR reports that prices have declined 25%
Actually, that’s not that far off. There is a major difference between what people thought the market was at and where houses are actually selling. Link
Not to mention where houses are now selling, and houses that get bought this month, really close at next month and reported the one after that. Remember, July numbers are really for homes agreed to in June. So a home “bought” in August, closes in September and is reported just before Halloween…
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