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rankandfile
ParticipantThis upswing is different, however. Nobody really knows if there will be a crash or a soft landing. My guess is that there will be a crash of sorts. No hard data, just a hunch. The laws of nature tend to reciprocate and reach equilibrium. If there is a slow and gentle rise, there tends to be a slow and gentle fall. If there is a fast and high rise, perhaps there will be a faster, harder fall.
The levels of inventory seem to boil down to the percentages of different people who are likely to sell and extraneous factors such as interest rates, employment, etc. Maybe we can try to create a breakdown of the percentage of those likely to sell in the next 6 months to 3 years, let’s say. This should include all sellers, even those who bought decades ago (old buyers). Here’s my stab at it:
Old buyers = 20%
Investment buyers = 25%
Unqualified buyers = 40%
Others = 15%The Old buyers are those who are at or nearing retirement and are selling to move elsewhere or cash out for money to retire on. Investment buyers are tricky. Some might be willing to wait things out, while others will likely try to cash out before prices go too low…just as they do with stocks. The Unqualified buyers are those who used exotic loan vehicles to purchase b/c they couldn’t do so otherwise. These are the folks who might not be able to afford to ride the market out if interest rates rise or the job market cools down. The Others are those that don’t fall into any of the other categories.
This is just a start and is by no means complete or definitive…it’s just my own guess. Cross-referencing something like this with population and inventory figures (from San Diego and other markets), however, might help us to make a better guess on inventory and prices. Then again, it might just be a waste of time!
PS: Where is a good place to find data on homes? I see some of these posters citing statistics such as the percentage of reduced listings. I’d love to get my hands on this info.
ParticipantHey, I am as much a proponent of the housing bubble as anyone else. I also think that many realtors have poo-poo’d the drop in RE prices recently. But to go on and on about hijacking the thread is pointless at this juncture. The thread has already been hijacked. The person who started the food fight deserves the lion’s share of the blame. Now that the rest of us are covered in 2% milk and runny mashed potatoes we might as well have some fun.
ParticipantChris Norton’s “sesuality” is classic. I don’t think I’ve heard of Roland Schwinn. The preteen boy you mention is RC Collins from Bradley Military Academy, the vigilante guy is Jay Santos, Brigadier Admiral for the Citizen’s Auxiliary Police (one of my favorites), and the old black woman is Mavis Leonard.
Another of my favorites is Steve Bosell. He’s the hyper-sensitive construction contractor from Corona who, along with his attorney Doloris Blasingame from Riverside, sues everyone for everything. There was one skit where Steve wanted to sue a man for saying “Aw, who died” after he pinched a loaf in the restroom at Outback Steakhouse. Classic!
You have to watch the Phil do his thing on the webcast…it’s nothing short of amazing. He also screens the calls during commercial breaks.
Forward me your email sometime…I have a backstage pass to his website and over 10GB of archived clips.
Maybe we should start a “So Long Phil Henrie” thread?
ParticipantAny fan of Phil Hendrie is a friend of mine. Ted Bell rocks! Its too bad they beeped out his jingle.
ParticipantI second that, PD. I am not always in agreement with SDR’s comments, but it’s nice to get that change in perspective to keep us on our toes. As for highjacking the thread, whoever contributes to the bickering going back and forth (including me) can be considered hijackers. I like PS’s shorter comments, but there’s something that makes me think Powayseller is the host in disguise. Like Phil Hendrie acting as Bobby Doolie or Margaret Gray. Call me crazy.
What was the poster’s question?
ParticipantI agree with the above posts about natural gas coming from the West Coast. I was pulled over in my Ford Taurus the other day for illegally driving in the car pool lane coming back from lunch. I told the occifer that I had some pretzels and beans with my meal and that I really did have natural gas in my car. He didn’t fall for it.
ParticipantAlthough this is just one instance that we actually know about, I’ll bet you all a beer that there are more like it, and many more to come. The interesting thing is that I’ll bet you all another beer, a nice 22oz. pale ale, that this home will not even sell at it’s “priced to sell” price.
ParticipantAny data on how many of the sold units in San Elijo were done with ARMs, interest only, or negative amortization financing?
ParticipantI am not nearly as well versed in the countless financial variables that affect home prices. I think it is quite clear that rapid increases in home prices, gas/energy prices, and the general costs of living have outpaced most people’s ability to increase their earnings. It’s that simple. Why else would banks become so lenient in lending their money? Because most people couldn’t qualify under normal lending conditions.
The pissing contest between sdduuuude and powayseller is just that. No matter how many statistics they throw at us, they are really no more in the know than people like me. It’s like the stock portfolio managers who bragged that they could predict what would happen to the market back during the dot com boom. I recall an experiment that was done where a chimpanzee was given the chance to select stocks during that period and it actually beat many fund managers! It just goes to show you how effective all those stats and charts were.
Yes, making an informed decision based on sound data is a better bet than just guessing. But there is also such a thing known as paralysis by analysis.
May 12, 2006 at 12:23 PM in reply to: San Diego Housing Market = Dead Zone, 67% overpriced !!! #25269ParticipantThere was a significant drop in price for a 3B/2.5B 1741sf condo located on Romeria Street in Carlsbad, 92009. This is a non-scientific study performed by a neighbor who lives in the area. About a month ago, the price was $700K. Today it is listed for $550K-$580K.
ParticipantRed or green, the price for these apples is way too high for me. I’ll eat something else for now, or buy an apple from another store.
ParticipantI agree that maybe there should be a reasonable cap limit of X words. I do know that one of the first posts I read on this website was pretty long (I can’t remember who posted it), but it taught me like 5 or 6 things about the housing industry that I didn’t have a clue about before. That’s what got me hooked on this site.
ParticipantI think that if there is a recurring problem with long replies, and a lot of people don’t like it, then the host can put a cap on the word count, if it hasn’t been done already. I don’t think it would be wise to handcuff respondents by forcing them to make 2-3 sentence replies. I personally have found a lot of good information in, and enjoy reading some of the longer replies. This depends on who wrote the replies, of course. And if I don’t want to read it, I simply scroll down and move on to the next page. The irony here is that you aren’t forced to read the replies, yet you are trying to force how others reply. I’m not so sure that is a good approach. The repliers are only hurting their own reputation when they post long, meaningless comments. Doing so will make readers less likely to read what they have to say…simple supply and demand.
PS: Sorry for going over the 2-3 sentence reply limit.
ParticipantI hear you, PowaySeller. Being frugal is a smart choice. The instances I am speaking of, however, were after our company had performed contracted work for the City. We billed the City for our services and they took forever and a day to pay us for them…for no apparent reason. That’s all.
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