[powayseller]

The housing market is slowing. Why would any sector of the housing market be a good buy, whether it is carpets, air conditioners, roofing tile, or manufactured homes?

Second, the biggest cost of a home is land. Why would anyone buy land now for their manufactured home? I think buyers are on the fence on buying land now.

Leasing space in a trailer park is expensive too. In Poway, we have several trailer parks. Yesterday, while at the dog park, I met a lady who is an accountant. She pays $750/month for her space. She paid $40K for her trailer, and thinks it is worth $80K now. I think it is a very high rent.

I would check out the realistic prospects for manufactured homes, not from some manufactured home sales rep, but from someone you trust to tell you the truth.

As asianautica said, each industry has its own PEs. Look at Chevron with a PE of only 6 or 8 (??). Oil is going up, but such a low PE. Car companies have low PEs too. Software companies have much higher PEs.

Buying any stock now, you are running against the crowd. In a declining market, you are betting that your stock is going to go against the crowd. It is like running into a stampede of cattle. Maybe you will emerge on the other side, but most likely, not.

I don’t see any reason to buy any stocks now, except a sure winner like an energy company that is undervalued. I would run far from anything housing related. That’s just me….

[powayseller]

The bubble started in 1999, 2 years before the Fed dropped rates.

[powayseller]

I read in the paper today that Walmart’s president blamed lower sales on higher gas prices.

In the paper also: Home Depot’s earnings were up 5%, and the company said they would return to reporting same-store sales. The story did NOT mention revenue increases, so I am concluding that the earnings increase was due to some accounting gimmick or land sales, but it is NOT related to increasing sales, that’s for sure.

Also, did everyone catch Barry Ritholtz’s analysis of what is hidden in the lower PPI? PPI dropped because of heavy discounting by the auto makers. It made up for the 40% rise in material input costs. 40% rise in quarterly material input costs! Is that inflationary or what?

This just goes to show: you can’t let yourself be fooled by a headline. Always dig inside the story. Whether it’s median, CPI, PPI, earnings increases: the number often hides an opposite reality.

[powayseller]

I was scared off also by the “bidding” process at the government website. theplayers told me they bought Tbills, and that got me interested.

So for anyone who bought Tbills, was it complicated? Where did you buy them?

[powayseller]

Spelling is a weak point for many people. So are writing skills. So I do not judge a person’s inteligence by their spelling, unless it is really bad. However, if someone speaks poorly, saying “ain’t” or double negatives (I don’t have no time), then I think they are uneducated.

I found a realtor on RealtyTimes, with so many bad spelling mistakes, I made fun of her and put her article in a post here. Some people thought I was too rough on her. “She’s a foreigner, give her a break” I was told. Well, “she needs to get someone to proofread a report that she publishes on Realty Times”, was my response. That lady was an example of a stupid realtor.

But people like SD Realtor, Bob Casagrand, John Hokkannen, and sdrealtor are intelligent people. They are still making a living in these hard times.

[powayseller]

I think the swiss franc is the best place to invest, then canadian dollar, then euro. Once gold prices drop a bit, gold is good too. Since we don’t know which will do best diversification is prudent. I am going to investigate buying government bonds of those currencies. I need to make calls to e-trade or large banks. My credit union doesn’t deal with international currencies.

If the dollar keeps falling we will see inflation, as prices of imports rise. But with the renminbi pegged to the dollar, it won’t affect prices of Chinese goods. Roubini makes a good case for China revaluing the renminbi before the Sept. deadline for the senator’s proposal for 27.5% tariffs for chinese imports. I think China has too many uncertainties in its banking sector, so I am unsure about buying yen.

Why did Bank of Italy buy british pounds instead of euros? Shouldn’t that tell us something?

[powayseller]

What puzzles me about George is this: aren’t you supposed to be good-looking to be a newscaster? That guy’s yellow skin, greasy hair, and slurpy speech (doesn’t he ever swallow his spit??) grosses me out. I’ve wondered for years why he isn’t laid off for his disgusting mannerisms. If I were the station manager, I would put him on print media, only. I have not listened to him long enough to know anything he had to say, since he grossed me out so badly. Now that we know he is Alan Gin on steroids, why in the world does he still have that job?

(I would get a kick out of Alan doing a google search on his name, and finding “Alan Gin on steroids”, hahahaha)

[powayseller]

Josh, why do you think people will leave FL? If the job is there, wouldn’t they stay? Also, why doesn’t San Diego do more to lure biotech companies here? We really need to invest in jobs other than real estate, lending, construction, and tourism. We need to bring more biotech and high tech companies here. What is preventing San Diego from doing so?

Perhaps SD is too broke to offer incentives. Can you imagine how SD’s budget will look in 3 years, after people have their properties reappraised to lower their taxes, and sales taxes keep falling? Missed property tax payments will hurt too. The cities get part of the property tax money, so this will hurt San Diego.

I’m thinking that cities like Carlsbad or Poway (lot of space in the Poway Business Park) could try to bring companies here.

We really need to revive our economy. What’s keeping us from doing so? Josh, Lindi, anyone else, any thoughts?

[powayseller]

How solvent is American Share Insurance, and who pays if they go belly up? Does the government back them? I check the solvency of my life insurance, homeowner insurance, and auto insurance companies before I sign up; there are plenty of insurance companies which are not solvent in case of big losses.

I’m wondering why more people dont’ use Weiss ratings or Treasury bills. Both add a degree of confidence.

asianautica, thanks for the tip on the liquid CD. I will keep some money in a liquid CD. It’s a good idea to have an emergency fund, in case the car breaks down or something.

[powayseller]

What ever happened to Rightside’s short trade of LEND? Do you guys think he’s still hauling in the dough on that trade? I missed out on a good trade…, but I was too chicken to short any stocks.

an – increasing and decreasing rates of change (now I know why we had to study derivatives in calculus) forecast the direction of the market, right? Real estate prices slowly top rising, top out, slowly turn down, then pick up speed. I think it will accelerate onthe way down. Maybe next month it is -4%.

[powayseller]

I think it’s time to start our own metrics for the housing slowdown. Somebody was tracking craigslist postings that say Reduced. How about adding craigslist and union-tribune ads for boats, cars, jewelry? Does someone want to do that, and keep a chart that can be updated monthly and posted here?

[powayseller]

You bring up an interesting point, that isn’t discussed much. How much will blogs, online sites like ZipRealty and RealtyTimes,foreclosure.com, snooping on your neighbor’s tax payments on the County Assessor site, snooping on your neighbor’s property values in zillow, checking out what people paid for their homes on zillow, comments on blogs feeding back to journalists, ability to view homes (and see # of inventory), affect psychology? As Rich and Bugs wrote, psychology was what brought up prices, and what will bring it down. Rapid dissemination of information is accelerating this decline.

Without piggington, I would NEVER have found out this was a bubble. I would still be living in my house. I would not have met all these people who taught me about real estate, like my best friend SD Realtor (ok, there you are, in the limelight:)), and Bob Casagrand. I would not have learned from Bob C. that months inventory is the best way to track changes in home prices, that the median is lagging, etc. I would not have known this is a national housing problem, that foreclosures are rising, the problem with ARMs. I would be another sheeple.

A journalist should do a story on the influence of the internet on the housing bust.

[powayseller]

waiting hawk, you’ve gotta loosen up. Meet me at Fashion Valley sometime, and I will show you how to shop!

[powayseller]

Too many people, in remodeling their homes, make it look like it was remodeled. A good remodel is not obvious; it fits into the floorplan. In the example of changing a 1.5 bath to a 2 bath, a bedroom lost its closet; thus technically it is no longer considered a bedroom. Now you went from a 3/1.5 to a 2/2. This lowers the resale value, as fewer people would want to buy a 2 bedroom home.

Personally, I would not buy any home that was built without permits or has permitted remodels with weird layouts (like having to go through the bedroom to get to the kitchen). My favorite tacky remodel is converting a patio or garage into a room. What are people thinking? If it looks like a remodel, people shouldnt’ do it. Doesn’t anyone consider sensible architecture and floor plans?

Some people have not taste. Why would I want to buy their tacky remodel, or their unpermitted house? And why should we? With inventory high and growing, there will be plenty to choose from. So no need to settle.

[powayseller]

I will get any available data on inventory and sales, and then post it. I may wait until September, when my kids are back in school.

[Author]

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