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powayseller
Participantjg, I made a 530% profit on the downpayment money invested in my house in just under 6 years.
Thanks for the question about my website. I can see you are very anxious, and I appreciate that and hope you will like it.
The question in this thread was who is a good market timer, and I tookt he liberty of excluding myself and real estate bloggers. Yes, Roubini is excluded too.
I’ve posted many many times, that I missed out on participating in the greatest real estate boom in recent history. I did not know about exotic lending or real estate cycles. I didn’t know I could buy 5 rental properties with no money down. I didn’t know neg-am loans existed. I had no clue about stated income. I’d been scared off by family members who said real estate is a messy investment, filled with deadbeat tenants, expensive repairs, a lot of oversight, and small profits. So I put real estate into a back burner and invested only in the equities market. Consequently, I missed on the real estate and gold booms.
I’ve also repeatedly thanked Rich (and my brother) for showing me there was a bubble. I think many times people who spot a bubble decline to participate in it, and thus miss out on the profits. Like I did not catch the Dow wave, because I thought it was overvalued. So my brother and Rich did not buy real estate in this boom, because they saw the bubble. Dean Baker warned of a bubble for many years, while it was still going higher and higher. None of us understood at the time that there would be plenty of time to get out, that real estate is very sticky on the way down. We are all learning.
I was just talking to EH, a 50-something real estate investor at the gym, who doesn’t want to sell any of his San Diego rentals, because they are paid off and he makes money on the cash flow. He doesn’t need the money. I asked him why he doesn’t cash out, and he said, “then what would I do with my money?” He told me he earned 11% annual over the past 20 years in his real estate deals, made 16% last year in 2nd deed trusts, and 11% last year in his stock market portfolio. He bought his house with money he made in the dot com bubble, because he cashed out every time the stock doubled. His secret he says is discipline and a system: he buys one house ever year, regardless of the market. History has been kind to his approach. He’s a real nice guy, and even if his properties drop in half, he’ll still make money on the rental stream. Now he’s buying commercial builder loans, subordinated to banks.
ParticipantRich, I was quoting the Wall Street Journal story about you, and I’ve not heard that you disputed their story. They said you didn’t buy any real estate when you moved here because you thought it was overvalued, but you kept your house in Texas as a rental.
ParticipantThe best market timer is my friends bds (see more below).
Campbell’s track record is mediocre. His sell signal came in 2002, way too early. He had a buy signal in 1994, a sell signal in 1995.
I think too many real estate bloggers have alienated themselves in an ivory tower. Campbell included. They pore over data, which is months old and lagging by one year or more. While it’s all very interesting, they miss out on what is happening, because they’re not out showing homes, talking with people, identifying new trends, changes in activity, or talking with someone doing those things.
Which real estate blogger made money during the real estate boom? Our host, Rich, didn’t buy any real estate at all, and missed out on the biggest real estate boom in San Diego history. I also failed to participate, but the point is that bloggers are also late in understanding the cycles. Not talking with realtors makes it even more difficult for them to spot changes in the trend.
The best market timer in this cycle is the person who identified spring 2004 as the peak in the San Diego housing market. The only people who got that right are sdrealtor, Bob Casagrand, and my friend bds. Even Rich and I missed it, because we were relying on the data. As I’ve learned, in real estate, the data lags and is biased. You simply cannot time the market by poring over data. You’ve got to be out in the streets working with clients and showing homes, or regularly talking with people who are.
My friend bds used market timing in her own real estate investing, buying at the lows and selling at the top in 3 real estate cycles in Southern CA. She is clever enough to get *two* (that’s right, 2) $500K capital gains tax write-offs in this housing cycle!
So anybody who claims to be a good market timer, should have profited handsomely from this housing boom, not just writing about it. Who fits that description?
ParticipantTo what do you attribute the higher returns of UNWPX vs the Vanguard fund? Have you read any of Zeal’s reports (mining companies outperform gold by many times)? That’s why Bill Fleckenstein raves about Newmont Mining and not about gold as far as I know. The mining companies amplify gold’s return. Zeal has a bunch of junior mining companies on their recommended list, but after I got burned with Chevron and Ivernia, I quit my subscription.
January 3, 2007 at 5:21 PM in reply to: Shoddy Construction of 2000-2005 Housing Boom: Beware of National Builders #42638ParticipantConstruction Attorney, do you have a website or e-mail address? My brother is an attorney at Shepherd Mullin, and I’ve been trying to get him interested in starting his own practice, profiting from the huge fall-out of the housing bust. Your field is one such area. He’s not interested in bankruptcy law, because you’re dealing with clients who are broke, plus he is ethically opposed to the new BK law which makes people debt slaves according to him. But construction litigation holds more promise for high fees. If you’re not busy now, you soon will be.
My husband is an engineer by training, so he knows how to do/supervise all the soils tests you’re referring to. The County did not require us to do any soils or compaction testing when we built our house, but we did them anyway. It cost less than $1K. Our neighbors did not do any at all!!! Can you believe it? But we did tested our soil, and we also put extra reinforcement in our foundation: exra rebar to make the foundation stronger. Even if you build according to the building codes, as you mentioned, your house is inferior. I feel sorry for anybody with a tract house, unless of course they got it for pennies on the dollar.
Even $1 mil houses could be just paper boxes built most likely on poor soil, not properly compacted, missing roof vents (because remember that building inspectors do NOT climb on ladders or crawl through attics since they are too good for that). You cannot know what is in your house, because it is covered with some cheap stucco and a nice coat of paint. But underneath that pretty paint and smooth stucco, is who-knows-what? Cracked 2×4 framing? Soil not compacted properly? One will never know.
Does anyone know if construction used to be of higher quality? Was there a certain year when the quality deteriorated? Are some builders still craftsmen?
ParticipantSo gas prices fell $4.20 per barrel ($.10 per gallon) while prices at the pump fell $.61 per gallon. Consumers, me included, fell for the line that the cost per barrel had gone down, not checking into the # of gallons per barrel (reminds me of the Off topic thread about inertia – we simply don’t use our minds enough these days). So I didn’t realize that drop in the price per barrel was much less than the drop at the pump.
Why are we subsidizing oil anyway? Last time I checked, the oil companies were making record profits.
ParticipantSo the Yahoo Finance entries are incorrect then… they must not have updated their prices to include that last distribution.
Mining companies amplify the returns of gold, at least according to Zeal. Again, nice job on those gold mining stocks.
January 2, 2007 at 7:51 PM in reply to: nesting young 4s Ranch experiences and puzzling questions #42563ParticipantWe replanted the plants into larger pots, using potting soil. If you use regular planting soil, the plants won’t thrive. Our orange tree is bearing fruit, the ivy is starting to cover the back fence, and the bougainvillea is just stunning. I purchased fabric from Ethan Allen that matches the fabric on my dining room chairs, and had valances made. I bought some cheap closet organizers. I can take all that with me in the future.
Participantjg, I was just bragging about your spectacular returns on Roubini’s blog, and upon checking the returns myself, came up with different numbers so I had to erase my post.
For 1-year, the UNWPX returned 20%, and the VGPMX returned about 21.7%.
UNWPX, adjusted for dividends and splits
12/29/06 $27.26
12/29/05 $20.27
Return = 34%. How did you calculate 51%?This is the VGPMX Price, adjusted for dividends and splits
12/29/06 $ 28.05
12/29/05 $ 23.05
Return = 21.69%. How did you calculate 35%?Both funds climbed 60% in the first 5 months of 2006, but then gave up half to 2/3 of their returns and stalled for the rest of the year. They are highly correlated, so how did you decide on these particular funds?
ParticipantPaul Craig Roberts, PhD – Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury under Ronald Reagan. “Father of Reaganomics.” Former Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal. Currently Chairman of the Institute for Political Economy
and Research Fellow at the Independent Institute.a.. Essay: “We know that it is strictly impossible for any building, much less steel columned buildings, to ‘pancake’ at free fall speed. Therefore, it is a non-controversial fact that the official explanation of the collapse
of the WTC buildings is false.” http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/…– from jztz’s link
Just to clarify my personal position: I am not accusing anybody of orchestrating the 9/11 attacks. I have no idea who was behind it, what a motive would be, etc.
I am merely questioning ONE part of the offical story because it doesn’t make sense.
How can the Twin Towers violate the law of inertia? They collapses at the speed of an object falling at free fall in a vacuum. I think some posters here must have a physics or engineering degree and can explain this for me.
Once you explain it, you can post it to all the 9/11 websites, and send it to NITSC for inclusion in their report, since they failed to address that at all. Just ignored that problem (like Thornburg ignoring exotic loans in his economic forecast).
In summary, anybody defending the offical story must be able to explain how the Twin Towers collapsed at the speed of freefall in a vacuum. Zero resistance from lower floors, as if they did not exist, and falling at a speed more akin to controlled demolition.
Participantjztz, interesting link. High ranking US government officials are criticizing the official report.
Also check out the video Loose Change at http://www.loosechange911.com/
Just to clarify my personal position: I am not accusing anybody of orchestrating the 9/11 attacks. I have no idea who was behind it, what a motive would be, etc.
I am merely questioning ONE part of the offical story because it doesn’t make sense.
How can the Twin Towers violate the law of inertia? They collapses at the speed of an object falling at free fall in a vacuum. I think some posters here must have a physics or engineering degree and can explain this for me.
Once you explain it, you can post it to all the 9/11 websites, and send it to NITSC for inclusion in their report, since they failed to address that at all. Just ignored that problem (like Thornburg ignoring exotic loans in his economic forecast).
In summary, anybody defending the offical story must be able to explain how the Twin Towers collapsed at the speed of freefall in a vacuum. Zero resistance from lower floors, as if they did not exist, and falling at a speed more akin to controlled demolition.
Participantjztz, interesting link.
Also check out the video Loose Change at http://www.loosechange911.com/
Just to clarify my personal position: I am not accusing anybody of orchestrating the 9/11 attacks. I have no idea who was behind it.
I am merely questioning ONE part of the offical story because it doesn’t make sense.
How can the Twin Towers violate the law of inertia? They collapses at the speed of an object falling at free fall in a vacuum. I think some posters here must have a physics or engineering degree and can explain this for me.
Once you explain it, you can post it to all the 9/11 websites, and send it to NITSC for inclusion in their report, since they failed to address that at all. Just ignored that problem (like Thornburg ignoring exotic loans in his economic forecast).
In summary, anybody defending the offical story must be able to explain how the Twin Towers collapsed at the speed of freefall in a vacuum. Zero resistance from lower floors, as if they did not exist, and falling at a speed more akin to controlled demolition.
ParticipantThis post shows Standard Pacific homes were selling at 82-95% of list price, but we don’t know what the true price is if incentives are included. So the true price could well be under 80% of list price.
ParticipantPoverty is related to education, not race.
On a related note, did you hear about the totalization program that the Social Security Admin had to release under the Freedom and Information Act. Bill Handel talked about it this morning (6-9am, 600 AM – lawyer who delivers exciting stories).
Under the totalization program, illegal aliens from Mexico get full Social Security benefits in the U.S. It’s going to be retroactive. Bush is expected to sign it soon, and Congress has 60 days to reverse it but is expected approve of it as well.
I’m all for helping the poor, but it just bothers me that we are helping someone who is illegal. If we’re going to treat them as citizens, let’s make them citizens and stop treating them as criminals by calling them illegal. And while we’re at it, why are we holding down the quotas of educated people who come in by plane? I guess it’s a way of keeping down supply of educated professionals, and raising the supply of uneducated laborers, further widening the wage gap.
Anyway, this SS legislation is plain wrong. Why promise even more benefits, when we can’t even pay for the ones we’ve already promised?
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