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powayseller
ParticipantWhereas Thornberg tells people not to sell their homes and move in with their parents, one of PIMCO’s Executive VPs did just that! Sell the home that is, and rent.
Now why does Thornberg link selling a home to moving back in with mom and dad? He’s ridiculing the idea, that’s why!
Read the bio of the PIMCO VP. Very impressive.
sdrealtor, I am dying to hear your take on my analysis of this conference. Ask your buddies who were there, what they think. Everyone’s speechless, since it’s so obvious how bad Thornberg really is at his forecast, and it took a housewife to expose him.
ParticipantFrom 2000-2004, LA County experienced annual average -22% domestic migration. Natural increase played a greater part in population growth in the coastal counties, whereas domestic migration was the main cause in the Inland Empire. Since 2000, Orange County experienced 14,000 net domestic outmigration. Domestic migrants to the Inland Empire came primarily from Los Angeles. Government Study
“Most of have these shaky loans can sell their homes”.
1) Why do we have record foreclosures? It is up 60% in California versus last year? Couldn’t these people sell?
2) Most people with “shaky loans” don’t even know they have them, think they’ll be able to pay the higher payments somehow, or don’t realize the market is going down and they will be upside down when it’s time to sell
3) House prices have fallen 5-10% already, so anyone who bought in the last 2 years, has a high probability of being upside down on their mortgage. The shaky loans have prepayment penalties, and I know several people who are not refinancing from their ARM into a fixed rate mortgage because they don’t want to pay the 3 months interest that is the penalty.
4) The term “population stampede” is erroneous reporting. Please show your sources for this claim.
5) Which economists have you spent “weeks talking to”?ParticipantHow do you buy COP Nov 60 calls? Why not just buy COP?
ParticipantI think your situation is a personal decision. You sound like you would get more pleasure from using your money in investments than in consumables. Are you asking for verification? Would you feel guilty selling that truck?
I have a few questions about Zeal. First, I made the stupid mistake of buying Ivernia through Vanguard, instead of opening a Canadian brokerage account. Since I purchased it as a pink sheet, I couldn’t put on a stop loss. I hope that will be okay… I’ve never bought anything with a stop loss, so I hope this won’t be my first big mistake.
They list Conoco Phillips in the Speculator list of stocks, yet they say it is one of the best buys around. I am surprised the oil stocks are so cheap! COP is trading at only PE 6.4! Barry Ritholtz recommended it on yesterday’s Forbes interview, and Warren Buffett has a stake also. What would be a good stop loss? The Zeal newsletter doesn’t say. Should I just use 15%? Do you keep adjusting the stop loss upward? How many of the investments on their long-term list do you have? Have you tried the ZS also? I am not going to buy options, calls, puts, stuff like that. I’m only going to buy long.
Have you checked into Chris Johnston’s futures trading? He has a 50% YTD return, and similar for past years. He trades only 40-50 times a year, he’s pretty conservative and quite good at what he does.
ParticipantI agree with all of you.
Our circumstances are due to our karma from our past actions, in this and past lives, and from our current actions.
ParticipantWhat is the Kelly Blue Book Wholesale Trade in value (the amount the dealer would give you)? Add 2-3%, and that’s what you could expect in a private sale. I wonder how much you would come out ahead selling the truck. It would have been better to buy a 2-3 year old vehicle. Most of the depreciation of the vehicle is in the first 2 years.
What are your other liabilities? You rent, right? Are your expenses low enough that you can afford the truck and boat, and still save for retirement, save for a rainy day? You have health insurance, a will/trust and term life insurance for any dependents? If everything else is lined up, probably you can afford your toys. I think toys are great for people who don’t have to leverage their futures to obtain them. My husband bought a 5-year-old 911 Porsche Carerra, cash, and neither of us felt guilty about it. It’s okay to spend money now and then.
On the other hand, every dollar you get out of that truck could double over the next few years if invested in some oil and commodity stocks. I’m looking over the Zeal recommendations, and Chris Johnston’s trading service, and realize that I want more money to invest. Cut back on spending for a few years, and leverage my money. I could pay cash for that trip to Europe, off the gains on my investments, so why take the cash for that now?
I once read that Warren Buffett (who is too frugal, it’s kind of an addiction with him to hoard his wealth), refused to buy a TV when he was younger. He kept thinking the $500 “wasted” on a TV, could compound in an investment.
I hope I gave something to think about.
ParticipantThere are some on this forum who are great at tracking price reductions. Perhaps someone else will come forward…
ParticipantHope you enjoyed the Organic link; that’s my other passion, besides housing/investing. Sorry for the wrong link though.
ParticipantThanks, Bugs. Do you think beginning of 2002? What median price should I use for the rest of the analysis, in your opinion?
My next part is about employment. What level of employment for contractors should we assume in 3-5 years? Will we revert to 2002 levels? Or are we so overbuilt, that we need to go back to 2000 levels or before?
ParticipantThat’s what I said, too.
June 4, 2006 at 6:42 PM in reply to: Financial book review – “The Creature from Jekyll Island – A Second Look at the Federal Reserve” by G. Edward Griffin #26188ParticipantThe money is coming from the global liquidity glut: central banks printing money, and needing a place to invest it. China prints yuan to buy the dollars we send for all their exports, so the manufacturers can trade in the dollars they get for yuan, and the renminbi doesn’t appreciate. Those dollars come back to the US to buy MBS (mortgage backed securities), treasury notes, stocks. Some money came from the Japanese yen carry trade, which is unwinding in the 3 months ending June 30, 2006.
I think the real problem is the low risk premium that these investors require. With so much money chasing so few opportunities, people were not requiring to be paid for taking risk. The bought MBS that were of low quality, for little return.
I made a mistake in writing that the 1% Fed Reserve rate was to blame. That certainly started it. But the global liquidity glut, and the American consumer buying more than they produce, caused it to continue.
ParticipantI felt more financial security before I sold my house. Now I constantly worry about my money. Can anyone else relate?
ParticipantHas anyone checked the Classifieds or craiglist to see if people are trying to sell their Hummers, Tahoes, Excursions? I bet by year’s end,you’ll see those, plus all those boats people couldn’t really afford. They’ll start selling anything they can, to get out from under the debt, adjusting CC, adjusting HELOC, adjusting ARM. How busy are the pawn shops?
ParticipantLA_Renter, thanks for sending that letter. I have called and e-mailed many journalists, both to correct and compliment them. Will Carless gets congrats, as does Ms. DiMartino at the Dallas News. KPBS talk show host Tom Fudge and U-T’s Roger Showley needed some education.
I bet this lady Diane will be more careful in checking her facts in the future. Journalists have egos too, and nobody likes to look foolish for writing a bad story!
The media prints what they hear from realtors. There is no propaganda, just lack of education. They are believing the same as most people still do: RE can only go up. Journalists did not study business in college; they are mostly clueless about the economy.
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