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powayseller
ParticipantThe Carmel Valley story proves that optimism is still high in San Diego. Those of you wanting to buy, wait until the optimism has turned to pessimism. When nobody turns out for the next release in Carmel Valley, start looking for bargains.
ParticipantPD, I think the consumerism is related to the importance of TV and overvalued housing. Every landscaper in Iowa sees the Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous and wants that for himself. And he can – with a 1005 financing loan or equity pull-out. The large percentage of Americans in bubblicious cities (I LOVE that phrase) is banking on their overpriced homes to be their retirement. That dream is being shattered this year.
June 14, 2006 at 12:14 PM in reply to: Foreign politics/policy discussions on this forum – a suggestion #26859ParticipantI actually appreciate this thread. I don’t have strong military opinions, only questions. I dislike our foreign policy, which is based on OFFENSE. That’s what I dislike. I am learning from reading others’ viewpoints.
I would like to know why the US has targeted Iran as a threat, and not the other nuclear-power producing nations.
Why are we in Iraq? It was supposed to be WMD, but if they had them, they would have used them. None were found. Why not say, “Oops, sorry, we’ll go home now”. What is the REAL reason for invading Iraq?
Why is the war in Iraq so long and unusuccessful?
Should we have such a large military when we have to print dollars and increase our debt to fund them? After all,they don’t respond to threats, they’re pre-emptive and offensive oriented.
Why is is so hard for Bush to get along with Iran and Iraq? Other countries get along great with them, even trade with them.
I have no agenda other than wanting to learn.
ParticipantLookOut, did you mean to say that if you love your job, you won’t mind working until you die?
This video points out that you need to save 18-20% of your income, or obtain 8x your salary in your account, to be able to retire at age 65 and live the average 17 years. The EBRI manager said that Americans ages 60-65 have only 4 years of expenses in their accounts, and then they will subsist on Social Security. There is going to be a huge disappointment as old folks, who counted on the cash in their homes, wakes up the realization that they should have garnered their savings the old fashioned way: by delaying consumption and actually saving.
I felt bad for the retiree who lost more than half his savings in the 2000-2001 stock market crash. This is one of the reasons I am so interested in my financial security, and want to share what I learn with others. My heart goes out to that man, but it’s too late to help him. It’s not too late for me, and for you all on this forum, to learn from his mistakes.
ParticipantI don’t know anything about foreclosures, but would like to respond to waiting for a price drop.
Past real estate cycles in SD took 6-8 years to go up and the same time to go down. If you are waiting for the bottom, it will take many years.
The rash of foreclosures will hit in 2007 and 2008, because in 2007 we have $1trillion of ARMs resetting in the US, and presumably most of those borrowers will be forced to sell. That is when prices will really drop.
As Rich once said, RE is a slow moving ship. We have just started turning in the other direction. Once we turn completely, and sentiment is negative, price drops should go much faster. Sentiment is still positive today.
Once prices drop in earnest, you still have to decide whether to catch a falling knife. If the answer is no, you’ll end up waiting 4-6 years for the bottom.
Foreclosures and ARMs will put pressure on this market, but it will happen in 1-2 years, not now. Imagine you are racing a car and you want to go 100 mph from a stop light. How long will it take you to attain maximum speed? 4 seconds? 6 seconds? That’s my point. It cannot be attained in 0 seconds. Everything of maximum speed takes time to accelerate. Think of RE like a slow moving ship or like a car that must accelerate.
The stock market does the same thing. Slow drops. 1/2%. Another day 2%. Before you know it, 5%. As of today, the major indices are negative for the year. This will get a momentum of its own. So will housing.
I would say this is still a seller’s market, because if they price it just 1-5% below market, they can sell. Buyers still want to buy. We’ve got many optimistic buyers out there.
ParticipantWould this be another city on the list of CA investors? Or is this where the the SD exodus is heading?
ParticipantNo reply to thread skimmers…
Participantsdr, you’re made more comments about Bob than on my analysis of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. I would be more interested in hearing a realtor’s perspective on my analysis of the Forecast, than on looking up and gossiping about his colleague. You criticize his beginner’s track record, without commenting on his techniques: internet appeal, writing 4 offers at a time, his clients getting the lowest prices on their purchases with his techniques.
You are silent and absent on the threads I start on Zeal, gold, foreign banks, federal funds, weak/strong dollar. For a successful businessman like you, wouldn’t this be an expertise you can share with us?
Perhaps you can ask yourself why you feel like you have to put Bob and me down, if you are so much better than we are. What’s your problem with me? Be a man and say it to everyone.
ParticipantI read the Sprott report. It was good, but they make the same flawed conclusion that I eluciated in my Zeal thread from last week.
ParticipantAnother tip – just make sure it’s FDIC insured. The Vanguard money market is not FDIC insured.
ParticipantHi sdr – the skimming refers to my post about seeing an attorney to review my lease and you wrote something about me having landlord problems. Another poster commented on you not reading it accurately, as she explained it to you.
I disagree with real estate as a noble profession. I don’t think anyone should be selling real estate right now, but at least he is honest and tells his clients that real estate is going down, and his website has the data to prove it. That’s why I can overlook what he does. He tells his clients to buy only if they can afford the payments and can ride out the cycle. I’ve had other realtors tell me that RE only goes up.
Like you, he has to convince himself that people need homes, or neither of you could continue your jobs. He is new in the business, and has fewer sales behind him, but as I said, he is so busy now, he is turning away business. Instead of congratulating him, you look him up, and try to find flaws. You attack his data, his sales history, the races of his clients. Why? Are you jealous? Are you feeling left out? I am impressed with his character, and he’s really nice. Please don’t feel left out. If you keep being nice to me, I will praise you also. Promise!
I also like Bob because he is like a business mentor I never had, and I can learn so much from him. He’s wise, he’s funny, and he’s interesting.
June 13, 2006 at 5:02 PM in reply to: Foreign politics/policy discussions on this forum – a suggestion #26743ParticipantI think defense is good, but our military is all about offense now. I fault our leaders in Washington for provoking international relations. Aren’t we clever enough to find a better way of getting along with other nations? Or must we resort to guns and bullying?
Take the Iran example. At first I was glad to hear that Bush had “all options on the table”. I was convinced by the media reports of a bad Iran. Then I heard the other nations were against our tactic, and started questioning why that is. Perhaps Iran does have peaceful intentions? Now Bush has been pressured to forego his nuclear bunker buster. But he was trying to force Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions by threatening force. Iran threatened to disrupt oil supplies. We weren’t being smart about it! Now get this: Bush sweetens the pot by offering airplanes and airplane parts in exchange for Iran’s cessation of the nuclear program, and Iran is interested in negotiating. This is exactly what should have been done from the beginning.
It is only due to our ally interference that Bush switched from nuclear bunker busters to offering airplanes in trade. But this was an intelligent solution.
I was proposing that we do more of this kind of stuff. But PD likes the weapons approach, probably because she is a military wife. Go figure…
ParticipantAre you military? hs had a good lead for military.
Otherwise, try bankrate.com.
World Savings in Rancho Bernardo has a 5.01% APY CD, 4 months, for walk-in clients. After the Fed raises their rates, I’m sure it will go up again.
ParticipantMy friend’s company has contracts with the military for BRAC work. I read that housing prices are going up in NC (?) as bases there are increasing in size.
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