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powayseller
ParticipantKristine, this sounds very interesting. I would love to apply for a job like that. My e-mail is [email protected]
ParticipantOPEC doesn’t like the high prices, I am sure. But if we are at peak supply of cheap oil, that explains why the price cannot be lowered. Zeal made a case, in the link above, that the high price is independent of geopolitical uncertainty, since oil has been rising since 2004? See Zeal graph.
So you all think that in a recession, oil demand weakens and prices drop back to $50/barrel? How can people cut back on oil use? Are they going to stop driving to work? How much price reduction can you get from conservation?
ParticipantIt’s a shame that no nation, us included, wants to relinquish its “right” to be in the nuclear club.
Participantlostkitty, e-mail me at [email protected]. I’d love to meet you while you’re in town.
ParticipantYes, that’s the point. Read Zeal, because they have lots of ideas, but you have to subscribe to get the stock tips. I posted Leeb’s recommendations a few days ago.
Participanttheplayers, why did you choose kitco over GLD or the coin dealer in Pacific Beach recommened by 4plexowner? Thanks for all the advice so far.
ParticipantYeah, I got screwed on that value pricing thing. The realtor said I should get $830K for my house, but we need to bring in the buyers doing the MLS search up to $799K, so we have to put in a value of 780-830. The buyer who found my house on the MLS doing a search up to 799 or 800K, will fall in love with my house and come up with the extra 30K. That was the plan.
This is how it really worked: the buyers saw I would accept 780-830, so why offer 830? Both offers were for 780.
These bottom-range offers came in December. Hasn’t this gotten out to all realtors yet? Isn’t the NAR and CAR supposed to educate y’all on this? You pay them dues, right?
Value range pricing basically is an invitation to get an offer on the bottom end. Why bother with the upper number? You’ll NEVER get it, and it just confuses people.
Great post, SD Realtor.
ParticipantI used the wrong word, Jim, but just go back and look at my math. I did it correctly.
The new number is 300% of the old number, but the difference is 200%.
What I wanted to show you is that today’s prices are 3x the price of 1999, or 300% of that number. Sorry if the words were inaccurate.
ParticipantMr. Perry lives on the East Coast, where home values are still rising. You won’t see a mini refinancing boom here, because homes values have fallen, and banks won’t lend you more than the home value. Mr. Perry also must have used stated income or had a 50% raise, because today’s ARM refi borrower needs 50% more income to afford a 50% higher payment at today’s rates.
Nice try, murray, but your’re tangoing with the wrong person. I actually know what I’m talking about.
July 23, 2006 at 4:57 PM in reply to: Differences Between The Tech Bubble and the Real Estate Bubble #29372ParticipantThe ARMs made in the last cycle occured in a period of high, falling interest rates, so they were not suidide loans like today’s ARMs which were made at a time of the lowest interest rates our country ever had. So the ARM you had probably reset at lower rates?
ParticipantBugs, you and Rich have talked about the psychology of the market often, and I wonder if you could explain that with regard to possible lower Fed interest rates. Wouldn’t lower interest rates provide a stimulus again?
Perry, I think this market can keep going down until the last of the ARM holders is forced into foreclosure, which would be 2011 for someone who got a 5/1 ARM today.
ParticipantThis is indeed a reversal of past trends. The leasing agent who listed my current rental house told me the supply of rentals goes up in the summer, because that is the time when people move. She said I would have much more to choose from over the summer, and that January is a time of fewer rentals. So this summer should have 60 or 70 rentals in Scripps Ranch, not 13. Any comments from the realtors?
ParticipantDon’t treasury bill values fluctuate, so you could lose some principal if you sell before the end of the term? It seems too risky to hold treasury bills if you want only a 4 month or 1 year holding period. If fewer investors buy treasury bonds at auction, making the price go up, you are compensated with a higher yield at maturity, but who wants to hold treasury bills for 10 or 30 years? This is why I have not bought treasury bills before, but perhaps I am wrong?
Chris, when you say the bond market rallies, you are talking about the 30 year bond price increasing, not about the yield increasing (i.e. lower price). That’s what caught me off guard when we discussed this yesterday, because in the newspaper, they talk about the yield not the price. As long as the oil price stays high, and the oil nations have so many dollars to invest in treasury bills, the bond will keep rallying. But this is offset by declining imports as consumer spending slows, and that would lower bond prices. Which side will win: rising oil prices or declining goods? There’s an economic boom in the Middle East, as the high oil prices are really enriching them. If they do as China does, i.e. print money so they don’t have to convert the dollars into their own currency, then they have to return the dollars to the US to invest, and where to put it? – US treasury bonds.
ParticipantI read this story yesterday and wanted to start a thread on it. The only reason that Mr. Perry could refinance with an ARM, instead of being forced into foreclosure, is because home prices are still rising in his market. So he had the equity to qualify for a new loan.
In San Diego, with home prices falling, I would guess that all 2005 and most 2004 buyers cannot refinance because they lack the equity. Also, rates are so much higher today, that you need the higher income to qualify for the higher rate. I guess Mr. Perry’s current income is high enough, or did he go stated?
I really wish we had a mortgage officer in our forums. We need it badly.
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