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powayseller
ParticipantVCJIM, ??
I offered to send Ms. Wedner a list of questions, and her response:
Thanks for the offer to report my stories for me. But as a veteran, respected reporter, I prefer to do my own work. You should try to do some freelancing on this subject. You seem to have a great many sources and ideas and opinions—give it a try.
Diane Wedner
July 25, 2006 at 9:53 AM in reply to: Sources Needed for “why commodities can’t sustain their bull run” #29563Participantjepsd, can you elaborate on the similarities/differences between the US/China deficit/export relationship compared to the US and Europe in 1921? Do you know about the history of collapse of various currencies, and how likely it is for the euro to become the next reserve currency?
ParticipantBobbyD, you seem very anxious to buy. Did you read privatebanker’s and Bug’s posts about the bottom of the last SD real estate cycle, which occured in years 5 or 6 of the decline? Banks had so many REOs, they hired entire REO departments, and homes were boarded up. I was told that some homes sat on the market for ONE year with NO ONE even looking at it! Why don’t you wait until we see that dire situation once again? It will be 3-6 years away, but that is when you will find the types of bargains you seek.
ParticipantThis is Barratt American’s ad for its Seahaus development. Just a bunch of marketing hype.
ParticipantThe post I made is about the end of cheap oil. Very important difference. What will $100 or $125/barrel oil do to our economy? It will take a decade to provide enough alternative cars and nuclear power plants to reduce our demand for oil. Demand keeps rising, as China wants to have everthing we have.
Your statement that it’s been said for 10 years doesn’t hold weight either – some economists have been talking about the housing bubble popping for 5 years and they were wrong too, until it happened. I appreciate your response. Well, what do you think about the impact of the END of CHEAP OIL?ParticipantThanks for posting. I read Bill Fleckenstein too, and subscribe to his daily column. It’s pretty cool – you can e-mail him questions, and he always answers them, but will not give investment advice. Does anyone have a question I should ask?
Why does Fleck keep saying the Fed will pause? I doubt they will. Inflation risks are too high. They’ll keep raising. But why does he keep saying they are “done now”, and he’s been wrong for months.
ParticipantThe low-end is $400-$500K and below. I think the $1 million and below are buyers sensitive to interest rates.
The above $2 million is a different market. Those people buy when they want to, and don’t care about interest rates.
ParticipantOne of my realtor friends told me that he has several buyers waiting on the sidelines until September, because he thinks that in the fall, the motivated buyers will have to face reality. So will the builders. The peak summer selling season will be behind us, and there will be fewer buyers out there. Inventory might go up. Although the testing-the-water sellers may retreat, the ARM holders and Nokia people will be very motivated sellers. Those who need to sell will lower their prices to compete against the few buyers out there.
Our market prices are determined by 30,000 homes that are sold. All you need are 30,000 motivated sellers, and prices will drop very fast. The other 1 million homes will be repriced automatically.
I am surprised that these builders are not lowering prices. Builders are well aware of the cyclical nature of real estate, and are quick to adjust when they see the cycle change. I wonder what’s going on with this particular group?
Participantsduuuuuude, thanks. Can you elaborate, i.e. is there a certain answer you’re looking for?
ParticipantMaxedOutMama, are you a loan officer? There’s a quesiton on another thread about how borrowers are qualified for adjustable loans, such as ARMs and I/Os. Are they qualified based on today’s rate, or on the maximum cap rate?
ParticipantBob Visini, vice president of marketing at Loan Performance, LLC in the Bay Area, and Will Carless talked about the impact of resetting ARMs. Will concluded that “some 50 percent of money borrowed through mortgages in the region will be wrapped up in reset interest-only or negative-amortization loans by 2010…if home prices rise reasonably over that period — and lots of people think they will — many of those borrowers will be absolutely fine.” But what happens to those borrowers if home prices keep falling? Even if home prices stay flat or rise, what will be the impact on our economy when “the holders of at least a quarter of all the borrowed money for housing suddenly lose several thousand dollars a month in disposable income?” Look at what happened when gas prices rose, and multiply that several times over.
A long question, but it gives the reporter the background for the question, and she can choose to just ask the last sentence.
ParticipantOften, the reporters do interview realtors, but they get so much BS! Realtors will say, “People want to live here, so they prices will keep rising”, or “They’re not making any more land so prices will never go down”, or “The economy is good so prices can’t drop”. I think realtors are worse than the economists in saying things which are simply not supported by the facts.
Now if they would interview you Jim, we’d get a straight story. Have you ever contacted a reporter? Perhaps you think it’s hopeless.
ParticipantJohn, could you run the Rancho Bernardo (92127, 92128) and Rancho Penasquitoes (92129) data? Both are in Poway schools. RPQ is very old, but close to Hwy 56 access and at least 8 miles closer to the coast. RB is considered a retirement community.
What I’m really curious about is which factors are helping homes keep their value better. Coastal one stories are a shoe-in, right? But inland, which areas are better for holding value? Second, does Poway’s reputation for their good schools show up in housing prices, either in higher prices or in lower DOM? I would think lower DOM equates to higher price.
John, Bugs, does either of you have time to check this?
ParticipantAlan Gin, I was hoping you would prove me wrong. Does your lack of response mean you are speechless?
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