[poorgradstudent]

Walmart’s weak weekend sales numbers scared the market today.

As a non-Walmart shopper and Target loyalist, I tend to look at weak Walmart numbers and say “huh, maybe people figured out that shopping online, at Target, anywhere but Walmart is more fun. I could shop at Walmart, but I’d rather hit my head against a wall for a couple of hours.”

I suppose you could argue it was partially profit taking, partially fueled by another dip in the dollar and raise in oil prices. I think the rest of this week may be very telling for where we’re headed in the very short term.

A weak overall holiday season is going to scare the market far more than the decrease in the housing market (justified or not).

[poorgradstudent]

Hmmm… I’m torn. I do believe we need traffic laws, and penalties that are firm enough to enforce said laws. But the penalties need to be fair.

I’ve gotten a few parking tickets in my day, and the prices were ridiculous. I guess it depends as a society what we expect traffic penalties to be for. A deterant? In that case, they should be steep fines? A punishment? Probably not so much. A source of revenue for the city? Gosh, I hope not (not sure how San Diego works, but the city I grew up in in Minnesota routinely made more stops at the end of the month so that the cops could hit their ticket quotas…)

[poorgradstudent]

Many churches do wonderful social work. Helping the poor was one of Jesus’s most important messages (along with loving one’s neighbor and tolerance). It’s sad to me that G.W. Bush hypocritically promotes himself as a christian while taking money from the poor and giving it to the richest Americans in the form of tax breaks and corporate welfare.

There are some fantastic liberal churches out there that accept homosexuality and understand that promoting birth control, not abstinence is the best way to lower the abortion rate.

I do wonder how the donation statistics would skew if you factored out general donations to churches as charitable giving. (I’d allow giving at church to specific charitable causes to still be counted, but not those that pay pastor’s salaries, building and maintainence costs, etc).

[poorgradstudent]

jg, the links you posted largely use apples to oranges comparisons.

The first pretty clearly states at the top that data on homosexual parenting is largely incomplete and spotty. The reality is that there just isn’t enough long term evidence to know for sure if there are any effects, especially once you control for other variables.

Promiscuity has nothing to do with one’s ability to parent.

Comparing legally married heterosexuals and all homosexual couples is ridiculous. I’m 28, heterosexual, never married, and my average relationship has been less than 2 years. A far fairer comparison would be of all heterosexual relationships and homosexual relationships, but that wouldn’t futher the agenda.

The rates of abuse in lesbian relationships cited is comparable to those in heterosexual couples.

Mental health issues for homosexuals is a huge issue in this country. It’s pretty clear that the depression, substance abuse and suicide are largely caused by being part of an oppressed minority.

[poorgradstudent]

Man, I feel fortunate that I view cars as a tool rather than some sort of statement on who I am, or method to make up for some inadequacy.

15% of monthly after tax income sounds really high for a car. I spend 0% of my monthly income on a car. It’s a ’96 Grand Am I bought used for $1500 cash a year and a half ago after my last used car needed $3000 worth of repairs just to stay on the road.

Maybe at some point in my life I’ll value nice cars more. I’m lucky right now that I can ride a convienient, short bus ride to work, so I only drive to my friend’s houses and places like the grocery store (I could walk or bike, but I like to make large shopping trips less frequently).

It’s so beneficial to my financial situation not to have a car loan.

[poorgradstudent]

I actually love the Chargers analogy.

“Real Estate Prices never go down” is sort of like saying “The Chargers are good this season, so they will be good forever”.

Of course real estate prices are actually more predictable than football teams. I’m a Vikings fan, and I don’t know how many years in the past 5-10 where we’ve looked really strong coming into the season and ended up pitifully mediocre. At least the Chargers tend to be boom or bust.

[poorgradstudent]

The smartest thing to do is to wait and save up to make a bigger down payment at a lower price.

Do you see yourself living in a condo for the next 10+ years? Or do you want to eventually move into a house? If the latter is true, maintaining flexibility is probably a good strategy.

What’s the difference between renting and having an interest only mortgage?

Waiting and watching for the next 6 months to year has no real danger, and can only benefit you. Interest rates aren’t going to skyrocket, prices will drop, and you can save the difference in what you’d pay on your mortgage and your rent in a dedicated down payment savings account.

[poorgradstudent]

Daniel is correct.

[poorgradstudent]

People who make enough money to be affected by AMT probably aren’t going to be the one’s sqeezed by massive mortgages. I’m sure there are some people who make $200,000 a year and still buy way too much home, but I don’t imagine there is a huge overlap between those under AMT and people who think 0% down, ARM loans are a good idea.

[poorgradstudent]

“No family values anymore.”

I’m always confused by this sentiment. Maybe because I’m younger (born in 1978), but I haven’t percieved some radical shift in values. A rise in cynicism, sure, but that’s largely because technology has given us access to information that in the past Americans would have been blissfully ignorant about.

Americans are better educated today than they were when I was born, so I’m not sure how the average american is “Stupid”, or if they are, how this is a change from the past.

Fat? Yeah, people are getting fatter. For better or for worse, we have some of the fattest poor people in the world. Thank a plentiful cheap food supply, McDonalds and friends, High Fructose Corn syrup, and a lack of physical activity, especially at work.

I guess when people talk about “family values” they usually aren’t speaking against a culture of overconsumption. In fact, overconsumption is arguably a tradional American family value.

[poorgradstudent]

Are you expecting some huge collapse in the economy? Radical tightening of spending?

I bet that people will spend 5-10% less on holiday shopping this year. Enough to put a dent in overall numbers, enough to affect retail stocks, but not enough for a real visual difference in store crowding.

Also, mall traffic is heavily driven by teenagers, who aren’t as affected by housing prices.

The Christmas season has started already. Retailers know it will be a light year, and they’re really trying to grab as much as they can, as early as they can. I think that internet shopping has also made the entire industry start earlier.

[poorgradstudent]

Net Worth = Assets – Liabilities.

A house is an asset.

Seems like easy math to me, but I may be oversimplifying.

[poorgradstudent]

Well, like any product, they rely on suppliers, which rely on raw materials. And sometimes product designs take longer to finalize than a company would ideally hope for.

Still, Sony arguably dropped the ball, with this generation of console coming out a good 6 months after Microsoft’s XBox360, and not having the availability (nor more attractive entry price point) of Nintendo’s Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii (Extra i’s added by me). It will be interesting to see if this hurts Sony’s current dominance of the videogame consol market.

[poorgradstudent]

Demographically, video game players now skew heavily to men between the ages of 20-40. Many of these men have more disposible income than time. Now, to me, paying $2000 to get the latest and greatest video game system ASAP is not worth it, but I’ve heard far more stupid purchases ($300+ for a bottle of champagne?)

Calling it a “toy” is an understatement. It’s an entertainment system, and arguably a computer in terms of technology. Experts guess that each unit costs $800-900 to make. This is fairly typical of videogame devices and cell phones, where the base unit is sold at a loss, but made up for in accessories or services (the $25 extra controller probably didn’t cost more than $5 to make)

In January you will (probably) be able to go to a store and buy the PS3 for its $499 sticker price. But the current price is not a bubble… it’s supply-demand, as Sony fell behind schedule and was not able to produce nearly enough units to meet Christmas demands. There’s no way they will sell for less than $499 until at least Fall 2007.

[poorgradstudent]

qcomer wrote: “However, there is a reason that the best of fund managers with the best of tools available, fail to time the markets correctly and hence fail to beat it consistently.”

I actually agree with yoru overall sentiment that the market is nearly impossible to time. However, I disagree about it being “beatable”, or the best managers being able to beat the market reliably. Check out John Keeley of Keeley Small Cap Value (KSCVX), Robert Gardiner of Wasatch Micro Cap (WMICX), David Williams of Excelsior Value and Restructuring (UMBIX),
Ron Muhlenkamp of Muhlenkamp (MUHLX), Rich Fentin of Fidelity Value (FDVLX), John Montgomery of Bridgeway Funds (BRUSX), and Ron Baron of Baron Funds (BARAX). All have beaten the market over the past 10 years… not necessarily every single year, but overall, money put into them in 1996 would have done far better than an index fund.

Of course, many are small cap, which do tend to outperform large cap, as they have more risk.

I own UMBIX in my Roth IRA. It’s treated me well so far 🙂

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