[poorgradstudent]

[quote=CA renter][quote=livinincali]I think recession in 2015 is pretty likely. Europe is probably already in recession but it hasn’t been confirmed yet, China is slowing down, and decoupling is a myth. I wouldn’t bet on the Fed resuming QE. Even if they did, the damage would already be done by the time they got around to it. The problem is that when this current asset price bubble pops there’s not going to be much to do to ignite another one.[/quote]

Agree with everything except the first sentence. I’ve long believed that if the Fed/govt were to manipulate the market when the economy fell apart (which they’ve done), that they could keep it limping along until around 2016-2017.

I think things will continue to gradually slow, with some bounces along the way, until 2016/2017. At that point, I think that the current bubble has the potential to collapse…and take everything else with it.

Stupid Fed couldn’t manage to learn from their asinine mistakes of the early part of the past decade when they kept rates too low for too long. Now, we will ALL pay the price, instead of the lenders, borrowers, speculators, and the assorted regulators/facilitators who caused the last crisis.[/quote]

Where do you see a current bubble? In the stock market? I think Rich’s data show that at least locally, while housing prices are on the higher side of “normal”, they aren’t in bubble territory (yet?)

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=scaredyclassic]My wife has wrongly predicted a recession of my hairline for over 15 years in a row now.[/quote]

Mine is in a slow recession, but the rate is slow enough my liver will almost certainly crap out before I’m forced to shave my head bald.

[poorgradstudent]

I guess I’ll add that the low price of energy (for now) is going to help ease some of the world’s pain. The Saudis for some reason have kept up production even as prices drop. They may be trying to mess with Russia, mess with Iran, or even trying to undercut the growing US Fracking industry, but the bottom line is lower energy prices definitely help prop up the global economy. Obviously that could easily change by mid-2015.

I guess that reading the actual linked article, Levy is predicting a 65% chance of recession by the END of 2015, which seems reasonable, if perhaps a tad high to me. I’d probably say 50-50, but the margin of error on such projections is high enough those are definitely in the same ballpark.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=svelte]Two things may fall in favor of a recession:
(a) being post-midterm elections
(b) rest of the world is slowing

But who knows. My track record for predicting the economy hasn’t been stellar.[/quote]

I’m with you on (b), but divided governments (i.e. Republican controlled congress and Democratic controlled Presidency, or vice-versa) are typically good for the US economy. In part because neither party is able to push its agenda it often creates a stable business environment where companies can grow and invest without worrying too much about government action changing the playing field.

I don’t think 2015 will see a recession, simply because GDP tends to be a lagging economic indicator, along with unemployment. I think 2015 may be a pretty crummy year on Wall Street, but a pretty decent year on Main Street. I do think the end of 2015 will look a lot worse than Q1 2015.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=sdsurfer] One consideration is that some people have vision and their own particular style so they would appreciate the credit, but many other people do not have vision and you need to do it for them to see the potential.

[/quote]

We definitely had our own vision when we were looking. There were a few properties where it would note “brand new carpets and paint” and our response was “but they’re ugly!” and we’d pass; as a buyer you feel like you’re paying for it, especially if it’s done “wrong”. Paint is less of a big deal, but a lot of people seem to want to go too dark on carpets.

We also definitely skipped homes where there had been a quick kitchen/bath remodel. You can kinda tell when someone updates the kitchen as their “home” vs. trying to sell it. Again, it was frustrating to walk into a home and see that it had been remodeled sloppily.

Of course a lot of people want “turnkey” homes, and we did see quite a few places that were redone very nicely. Of course those places often wanted to get compensated for the money they sunk into it, which put those places out of our preferred price range.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=njtosd][quote=Rich Toscano]Just to be clear specifically on the Myers-Briggs thing, the “T vs. F” spectrum isn’t about whether you have emotions, it’s about how you make decisions (whether it’s more driven by analysis or gut feel). It’s been a while since I read up on this stuff but that’s what I recall…[/quote]

FWIW – my comment was primarily responding to FlyerInHi’s (Brian’s) pursuit of “objectivity” and dispassionate analysis.

T vs. F also would seem to indicate whether people can shake off mild (or not so mild) OCD tendencies, which can result in the paralysis by analysis situation. My in laws spent 25 years trying to decide on a design for their patio . . .[/quote]

I have to say that one of the things I am best at in life is making tough decisions with incomplete information and accepting the fact that it was the “right” decision at the time, even if further information shows it was not ideal.

I think it comes from all the time I spent playing poker. The correct play doesn’t always win, but it can still be the correct play. There are times in life when no decision or a delayed decision is the optimum strategy. But when you’re forced to make a call, such as choosing between two homes or two job offers, you make a call and accept that it was the best decision at the time with the available information.

[poorgradstudent]

I’m INTP, but the only one that is “strong” is the T, although the I and N are both pretty consistent across different tests, usually something like 60%-40%. I’ve scored as INTJ, and a lot of the P/J questions I end up just sort of picking at random at times or wisihing I could skip.

My introversion/extroversion does seem to fluctuate a lot at different points in my life. I was more extroverted when I was in the dating pool and meeting more new people.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=FlyerInHi]I prefer independently wealthy over a successful career.

I’d rather people didn’t talk about their jobs. Pretty dull actually. There are so many other interesting topics to discuss.

I have a successful male friend who never talks about his job. I’ve learned to admire and appreciate that. It’s hard for men not to relate everything to their jobs.

Women who talk about their jobs are irritating.[/quote]

At this point in my life I find work is a nice safe topic to chat with male strangers about. The weather is even more dull, most extended discussions about sports bore me, and a lot of men aren’t very good at talking about their kids. Politics is a ticking time bomb; I’d rather not know what stupid political views a person holds.

I certainly admire people that have interesting things to talk about besides work. Movies and television are fairly safe, although “I haven’t caught up on that yet!” is a fairly common refrain these days.

[poorgradstudent]

In San Diego county you can be active outside almost every day out of the year. I grew up in Minnesota which is the polar opposite; between cold winters, hot humid summers and periodic rainstorms, “nice” days were few and far between. There’s a real tendency in the upper midwest to stay inside and eat during the cold winter months, packing on pounds. So physical activity definitely helps.

Having contstant beach access probably provides a bit of incentive to maintain more of a “beach body”.

[poorgradstudent]

Tangental, I’ve read that the whole stereotype of “rich, successful guy marrying his hot young secretary” is basically a dead trend. Successful men for the most part want to marry successful women. It’s actually part of why the rich stay rich and the poor stay poor in this country, as most people tend to marry a partner from their same general income bracket.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=scaredyclassic
golf is stupid.
[/quote]

I read a semi-interesting article about how on the whole, young people would agree with you. Golf is waning in popularity, especially with the younger set. Too time consuming for dads who are too involved with their kid’s lives to disappear for four hours on a weekend, too elitist for the middle class. There may be a bit of waning “Tiger effect” and return to the median.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=scaredyclassic]one thing is cetain; hot girls will never go out of style.[/quote]

Of course beauty is fleeting.

[poorgradstudent]

Obviously this data is going to depend on how one defines the “metro area”. Is Santee part of the San Diego metro? What about Esco? Chula vista?

When a lot of us think about NYC we think about Manhattan, maybe Brooklyn. I’m curious if they put Oakland into “San Francisco” and if Bellvue ended up part of Seattle?

There’s no way NYC shouldn’t be number 1, despite how much DC has risen in recent decades. But SD as #4 “feels” about right. Baltimore, Boston, and LA are all expensive and in the same ballpark, and Chicago and Dallas are definitely cheaper. But it’s definitely a “Big Three” (DC, SF, and NYC) with SD barely sitting on top of the second tier.

[poorgradstudent]

Corrections are normal. They are called corrections for a reason.

I’m seeing a pretty awesome buy opportunity. I feel pretty smart that I sold my long positions a few weeks ago. Only wish I had more money in my 401k to play with 😛

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=scaredyclassic]

i’ve been donating .25 a year to my alma mater s for about a decade. i have 2 reasons. while you’re still paying student loans, schools shouldnt solicit you for substantial sums.

quote]

I refuse to give to my undergrad for this same reason. They talk about scholarship funds, I mention I still have student loans and would rather put my money in my own “scholarship fund”.

I routinely tell both them and my graduate program “no, you can’t have my current address” when they ask.

[Author]

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