OT: 2015 Recession?

[flyer]

http://fortune.com/2014/10/28/global-recession-us-europe-china/

Thoughts?

[The-Shoveler]

I am going out on a limb here and say USA recession not likely in 2015.

L.A. port cannot even keep up with the imports coming in (which is as I understand it going to set a record this year).

But if housing continues to slow down I think the Fed will hit the QE panic button again.

[livinincali]

I think recession in 2015 is pretty likely. Europe is probably already in recession but it hasn’t been confirmed yet, China is slowing down, and decoupling is a myth. I wouldn’t bet on the Fed resuming QE. Even if they did, the damage would already be done by the time they got around to it. The problem is that when this current asset price bubble pops there’s not going to be much to do to ignite another one.

[svelte]

Two things may fall in favor of a recession:
(a) being post-midterm elections
(b) rest of the world is slowing

But who knows. My track record for predicting the economy hasn’t been stellar.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=svelte]Two things may fall in favor of a recession:
(a) being post-midterm elections
(b) rest of the world is slowing

But who knows. My track record for predicting the economy hasn’t been stellar.[/quote]

I’m with you on (b), but divided governments (i.e. Republican controlled congress and Democratic controlled Presidency, or vice-versa) are typically good for the US economy. In part because neither party is able to push its agenda it often creates a stable business environment where companies can grow and invest without worrying too much about government action changing the playing field.

I don’t think 2015 will see a recession, simply because GDP tends to be a lagging economic indicator, along with unemployment. I think 2015 may be a pretty crummy year on Wall Street, but a pretty decent year on Main Street. I do think the end of 2015 will look a lot worse than Q1 2015.

[poorgradstudent]

I guess I’ll add that the low price of energy (for now) is going to help ease some of the world’s pain. The Saudis for some reason have kept up production even as prices drop. They may be trying to mess with Russia, mess with Iran, or even trying to undercut the growing US Fracking industry, but the bottom line is lower energy prices definitely help prop up the global economy. Obviously that could easily change by mid-2015.

I guess that reading the actual linked article, Levy is predicting a 65% chance of recession by the END of 2015, which seems reasonable, if perhaps a tad high to me. I’d probably say 50-50, but the margin of error on such projections is high enough those are definitely in the same ballpark.

[scaredyclassic]

My wife has wrongly predicted a recession of my hairline for over 15 years in a row now.

[FlyerInHi]

Everything that poorgrad said.

$2.92 gas in Vegas.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=scaredyclassic]My wife has wrongly predicted a recession of my hairline for over 15 years in a row now.[/quote]

Mine is in a slow recession, but the rate is slow enough my liver will almost certainly crap out before I’m forced to shave my head bald.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=poorgradstudent][quote=scaredyclassic]My wife has wrongly predicted a recession of my hairline for over 15 years in a row now.[/quote]

Mine is in a slow recession, but the rate is slow enough my liver will almost certainly crap out before I’m forced to shave my head bald.[/quote]

your hair is a metaphor for the solvency of the USA>

[CA renter]

[quote=livinincali]I think recession in 2015 is pretty likely. Europe is probably already in recession but it hasn’t been confirmed yet, China is slowing down, and decoupling is a myth. I wouldn’t bet on the Fed resuming QE. Even if they did, the damage would already be done by the time they got around to it. The problem is that when this current asset price bubble pops there’s not going to be much to do to ignite another one.[/quote]

Agree with everything except the first sentence. I’ve long believed that if the Fed/govt were to manipulate the market when the economy fell apart (which they’ve done), that they could keep it limping along until around 2016-2017.

I think things will continue to gradually slow, with some bounces along the way, until 2016/2017. At that point, I think that the current bubble has the potential to collapse…and take everything else with it.

Stupid Fed couldn’t manage to learn from their asinine mistakes of the early part of the past decade when they kept rates too low for too long. Now, we will ALL pay the price, instead of the lenders, borrowers, speculators, and the assorted regulators/facilitators who caused the last crisis.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=CA renter][quote=livinincali]I think recession in 2015 is pretty likely. Europe is probably already in recession but it hasn’t been confirmed yet, China is slowing down, and decoupling is a myth. I wouldn’t bet on the Fed resuming QE. Even if they did, the damage would already be done by the time they got around to it. The problem is that when this current asset price bubble pops there’s not going to be much to do to ignite another one.[/quote]

Agree with everything except the first sentence. I’ve long believed that if the Fed/govt were to manipulate the market when the economy fell apart (which they’ve done), that they could keep it limping along until around 2016-2017.

I think things will continue to gradually slow, with some bounces along the way, until 2016/2017. At that point, I think that the current bubble has the potential to collapse…and take everything else with it.

Stupid Fed couldn’t manage to learn from their asinine mistakes of the early part of the past decade when they kept rates too low for too long. Now, we will ALL pay the price, instead of the lenders, borrowers, speculators, and the assorted regulators/facilitators who caused the last crisis.[/quote]

as long as they keep pumping rogaine into my tap water, i think this hairline can go on indefinitely.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=CA renter][quote=livinincali]I think recession in 2015 is pretty likely. Europe is probably already in recession but it hasn’t been confirmed yet, China is slowing down, and decoupling is a myth. I wouldn’t bet on the Fed resuming QE. Even if they did, the damage would already be done by the time they got around to it. The problem is that when this current asset price bubble pops there’s not going to be much to do to ignite another one.[/quote]

Agree with everything except the first sentence. I’ve long believed that if the Fed/govt were to manipulate the market when the economy fell apart (which they’ve done), that they could keep it limping along until around 2016-2017.

I think things will continue to gradually slow, with some bounces along the way, until 2016/2017. At that point, I think that the current bubble has the potential to collapse…and take everything else with it.

Stupid Fed couldn’t manage to learn from their asinine mistakes of the early part of the past decade when they kept rates too low for too long. Now, we will ALL pay the price, instead of the lenders, borrowers, speculators, and the assorted regulators/facilitators who caused the last crisis.[/quote]

Where do you see a current bubble? In the stock market? I think Rich’s data show that at least locally, while housing prices are on the higher side of “normal”, they aren’t in bubble territory (yet?)

[Coronita]

People keep predicting a doomsday in the near term and that the Fed and government can kick the can down the road only so many more times.

I think it’s pretty evident, however, just how long and how far the Fed and our government can and will kick the can down the road… They are a can kicking guru, and will do the same thing over and over again if needed.

So I wouldn’t hold my breath nor bet against the house….House always wins..

Maybe things will fall apart 40-50+ years from now. But at that point I’ll either be dead or eating out of a straw, so I won’t care anymore….

There’s one thing I find interesting… Especially about real estate. Most of the buyers in recent times have been financially stronger. So what real hurry would they have to sell?

Now bring back subprime, stated income buying, and have those subprime borrowers drive up home prices again to levels they cannot afford/sustain, then I’ll say we have a problem (again)…

[livinincali]

[quote=flu]People keep predicting a doomsday in the near term and that the Fed and government can kick the can down the road only so many more times.

I think it’s pretty evident, however, just how long and how far the Fed and our government can and will kick the can down the road… They are a can kicking guru, and will do the same thing over and over again if needed.
[/quote]

They managed to blow a bubble for 6 years after the NASDAQ bubble burst. We’re really only into this current bubble about 5-6 years. It’s kind of funny that we get really confident in their ability to control and manage everything right about when the bubble pops again. I remember how confident everybody was about subprime being contained back in 2007. We’re probably pretty close to being there again and we just completely ignore what happened last time thinking it’s different this time. Most of us have been through 2 big bubbles and here we are again saying it’s not a bubble. I guess we like to forget.

[Author]

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