[poorgradstudent]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Maybe it’s time for the US to act like China and take advantage of this opportunity. There is a global glut of steel and construction materials.

We should embark on a grand building spree like we did during the industrial age — new airports, deepwater ports, train stations, high speed rail. 21 century versions of Hoover Dam, Grand Central Station, Golden Gate Bridge, etc…

That would absorb the capacity overhang. We can welcome refugees from around the world to provide the labor. Make America great again![/quote]

Considering how hard it was to get the Stimulus package approved when Domestic labor was ridiculously cheap and abundant, I wouldn’t hold my breath on this. Half the country believes the secret to beating a recession is cutting taxes (and also in cutting taxes during a boom). A lot of smart people were arguing for long term infrastructure investment during the crash while labor was at historically low prices, but only a fraction of what probably should have been done was actually executed thanks to austerity.

We probaly won’t see serious infrastructure investment until the next time the branches of government are switched.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=paramount]I’d bet by January we’re in recession.[/quote]

Certainly not a declared recession. A recession requires 2 quarters of negative growth.

I’m thinking that a lot of money from emerging markets will seek safety in the USA. In the short term, it’s good for us. If anything, that will hold down mortgage rates and be good for real estate values.[/quote]

I’m definitely worried about our exports and trade gap in the medium term.

[poorgradstudent]

It seems like an ambitious plan.

I would LOVE to take mass transit to work. If I could hop a train somewhere around where the I-15 and 56 meet and zip over to the Sorrento Valley station, just blocks from my work, I’d be loving life.

Unfortunately our mass transit system sucks and if another zealot talks to me about biking I’ll remind them of humid, rainy days like today.

[poorgradstudent]

Well, along with the stock market it looks like mortgage rates have dipped again, although they’re still maybe an eighth above April lows.

I wonder if this is partially speculation that the Fed will push back a rate hike one more time?

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=joec]
Is anyone concerned that America will eventually be brought down from within from someone born here like those movies, Departed, and what I prefer more, Infernal Affairs?

I suppose I wouldn’t be surprised that in 20-30 years, you may have some micro cells born/bred to cause trouble.

You are already starting to see US citizens causing trouble so changing the whole 14th amendment might not help much with our open system…

no fix, just more arguements and debates.[/quote]

White terrorism is a huge issue in the US already. I dread the next McVeigh. There are a lot of anti-Government crazies running around and if they stop taking their meds and use the internet to start collaborating, some very, very bad things could happen.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=no_such_reality]In the anti-trust way. For years they bankroled major losses. They eventually did away with the super deep discounts, but only after capturing market share and servely damaging their competitors. This was back when Amazon primarily sold books. Their impact has been very similar to Walmart on smaller retailers and bookstores throughout smaller cities and towns.

Amazon has become innovative and branched out, but so did Standard Oil.

Amazon lost money, and a lot of it, from 1994 to 2001 when it turned it’s first $5 million dollar positive quarter. From inception in 1994 to end of fiscal year 2001, they last $2.8 billion and lost over $2.2 Billion before ever turning a profit.[/quote]

Well, as terrible as it is, Overstock has existed for most of Amazon’s life. In the ebook marketplace there is Apple (which did get in trouble for price fixing, but the *other* direction), Barnes and Noble does have the Nook. For consumer goods Walmart and Target still exist.

The internet has probably killed the mom and pop retail shop. But a lot of Amazon’s price undercutting is economy of scale.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=urbanrealtor][quote=poorgradstudent]Well, this does help explain part of the support for rising home prices.[/quote]
Sort of.
It better explains why low interest rates and innovative lending (not always a good thing– think NINJA loans) start to make sense.
Low payment and low cash down mean purchase can be almost as cheap as current rent prices.
Also, and I think more importantly, it explains that current prices are back-stopped to a certain extent.

If prices in condos drop even 10% they become cheaper than renting.

Barring a broad rent fade (and we are not currently at risk of a deflationary rent spiral) those currently high prices are effectively fixed.

There are some nuances and changes but that is the short version.[/quote]

Oh yeah, rent prices factored into our decision to buy last year. The mortgage on our 3/2 SFH is pretty comparable to what we’d have to pay to rent a simliar property. Barring a 10% correction in the next year or so, so far the decision seems to have mostly paid off.

[poorgradstudent]

Rich’s “Rising Tide” article convinced me to shift more of my retirement portfolio into Developed Market International funds (401k options are sadly fairly limited).

I don’t really like the value in US stocks right now, but some of the international markets seem to have at least some value.

[poorgradstudent]

Well, this does help explain part of the support for rising home prices.

[poorgradstudent]

Is there any language in the contract about the ability of either party to void the contract?

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=moneymaker]I get 5 or 6 six weeks a year which I believe is generous, my gripe with my PTO system at work is you only get 5 sick days a year, after that you are generating occurences, after 3 occurences you can in theory be fired, though I don’t know of anybody that was. The problem with this system is you get sick people coming in to work because they have used their allotted sick time already. They also don’t allow any carry over from year to year which everybody else I know is allowed to do up to a certain amount usually like 240 hours or so.[/quote]

I thought the whole point of PTO is it can be used for anything… sickness, religious holidays, etc. You have separate pools for both?

We technically have a sick day pool we’re supposed to use first just because it doesn’t carry over from YTY like PTO does, but once that’s gone I use my PTO for sick days.

[poorgradstudent]

The thing that confuses me is inventory looks like it was actually lower this Spring, but prices seem to have been rising more rapidly in June/July.

I guess we don’t really have the July data yet so it’s hard to make real comments on July yet.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=The-Shoveler]I am not saying that home prices are not silly right now but I will say they are not and have not been building near enough homes.

I was hearing that resale inventory (below 800K in price) is down about 28% from last year and it was even low then.[/quote]

Yeah, it seems like all the building that is happening is in the 2000+ sq ft range. I’ll admit I don’t know areas like Santee, Chula Vista and San Marcos that well, which may have building activity that is more in line with starter homes.

It sort of feels like builders just want young families to buy condos for their first home 😛

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=urbanrealtor]
I so very much want this to be true
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/ed-klein-bill-clinton-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/2015/08/09/id/669253/%5B/quote%5D

Whether or not Bill Clinton had the foresight to see what Trump would do to the Republicans, you have to admit that this is huge plus for Hillary. The more disarray there is in Republican ranks, the more the candidates must move to the right to gain the support of the conservative base. That allows Hillary to move to the center which makes her position that much stronger.

And at this point the Republicans have a very difficult position. It’s unlikely that Donald Trump will drop from the race gracefully, which means he either gets the nomination or splits the party. Either case is a big win for the Democrats.[/quote]

It also disrupts the Anti-Hillary narrative that I’m sure the RNC wanted to dominate the news cycle at this point. Meanwhile, you’ve got Bernie Sanders running around making Hillary look more moderate by comparison. Maybe the Clintons really are that crafty?

[poorgradstudent]

Minnesota.

Good economy, plenty of agriculture, nice people. The worst part about Minnesota are the winters. Although extreme heat in the summer could be rough, modest changes in temperature that made Minnesota more like Iowa could actually improve the agricultural climate.

Any of the Canadian cities except Vancouver (which will be underwater) coudl be nice too.

[Author]

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