[phaster]

I’m trying to refi a property (to take advantage of rates I’ve been told just dropped)

anyone ever heard of, or had experience with:

https://www.umpquabank.com/locations/california/la-mesa/la-mesa/

[phaster]

[quote=EconProf]Remember Peak Oil? A few years ago we were all told that oil prices, then over $100, would soon double and then double again, as the world’s supplies became exhausted.

Then along came fracking. Good old capitalism harnessed technology to again stymie the doomsayers. Now the US will become an energy exporter to the rest of the world. In some previous years we imported about half of our oil. Soon we will produce more energy than Saudi Arabia. Once again the market system comes through.[/quote]

Peak oil did happen back around 2005, but one has to see and understand the context of the individuals associated with the theory/problem.

To begin, the theory of “peak oil” was proposed in the 1950’s by a shell oil geologist named Marion Hubbert and then popularized around the early 2000’s by Matthew Simmons (who ran an investment banking services firm for the energy industry) after he wrote the book “Twilight in the Desert.”

What these two (DEAD) individuals were most likely concerned with was the peaking of liquid fuels delivered from “conventional” oil NOT tight oil (e.g. oil derived from shale or tar sands!!).

Since you most likely are looking at the problem of “peak oil” with an economics mind set, you might be thinking there is no longer a problem because there is the simple solution of “economic substitution.”

From the consumer stand point oil from convention land based fields like “spindel top” in Texas, or “guwair” the superfield in Saudi Arabia is no different from oil derived from “cantarell” which is a shallow water oil field in the gulf of mexico!

Then one has to consider “tight” oil derived from the tar sands in tar sands in alberta, and of course there is the latest source of oil (energy) from shale in barnett TX, and the marcellus in the appalachian basin.

The simplest 30 second way to understand why “conventional” peak oil is indeed a very real economic problem in the long run, is watch the intro to the beverly hillbillies theme song and note the image associated with “bubbling crude”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDgTJulizrs

Long story short, conventional oil is cheap and easy to extract/process and bring to market! BUT the “economic substitutions” for easy to get to conventional oil from unconventional geological formations I mentioned above, requires lots more money and resourced to bring to market!!

If you are trying to figure out why there there has been a rapid drop in oil prices this past couple of months, one has to think like a a long term investor and a student of peakoil!!!

I myself see the shale revolution of this past half decade as kinda like the “optimistic” atomic energy revolution of the 1950’s (IMHO the phrase “too cheap to meter” is a reto sound byte, applicable to “fracking”)

Personally I’m guessing there is lots more to the sudden drop in prices of oil than meets the eye.

In other words the current KSA powers that be are borrowing the bill casey CIA playbook of the reagan era (in other words the USA screws the USSR, by investing in oil infrastructure in Sauda Arabia there by lowereing the cost below the cost to produce for the USSR, in addition the USA sells weapons systems to Sauda Arabia which creates jobs in the USA and as another bonus the US consumer gets cheap gas to fuel the SUV fad! So bottom line a strategy was developed so that the economy of the USA during this era is the global winner!!)

Before matt simmons died, I heard he said before we clearly see the downward side of the production curve, there would be an oscillating plateau for a while (i.e. time period we are now in where convention oil production declines would be filled by technology like increased extraction techniques from convention fields, and extraction from tight geological formations like “fracking” from shale)

There is a difference between human and geological time (and it is important to be aware of those differences when trying to understand what exactly is going on).

What we are experiencing now with the economy is the short term effects of money flows in the market place w.r.t. oil prices! BUT in the end society will have to face the reality that there is no way to ignore the laws of physics!!

[phaster]

[quote=flu]I was looking forward to seeing this next generation Acura NSX… It’s kinda interesting….

But then Ford dropped a bombshell with the next generation Ford GT…..Damn….

Interesting both are 6 cylinders….

Well, gas is cheaper now :)[/quote]

don’t know what it is, but that “new” car porn just does not do for me, perhaps I’m thinking of what happens in the real world (bad roads and all)

a few years ago my mercedes mechanic gave me a call and told me come by the shop because there would be something I’d might be interested in. So I showed up and got to check out the tesla roadster. I’m a tech geek and did have check out the tesla roadster up in san carlos (bay area, not SD), when they were developing it back in 2007.

Anyway what I noticed about the tesla roadster on harbor drive down town by the convention center is how much one has to be aware of how bad the road is because the tesla is has an air dam and is so low to the ground. Also one has to consider crossing rail road tracks (ya have to creep and best cross a slight diagonal to avoid damage)

personally if I was going to throw away a couple of hundred grand on personal car porn I’d get an older “reimagined” porsche which BTW also has six cylinders….

http://singervehicledesign.com/gallery/the-machines/san-diego/

[phaster]

[quote=moneymaker]Anybody know the address so i can look up the taxes on Zillow to see if I can afford to win. Have always considered entering but never have.[/quote]

money raised goes for a good “local” cause, and when you look at the math (i.e. the odds of winning something (1 in 50))

http://www.sdraffle.com/Overview.aspx

it seems if one is inclined to gamble a bit for entertainment, the $150 entry isn’t a bad trade off in the hopes to win this years McMansion prize

http://www.sdraffle.com/Photos.aspx

personally if I win the grand prize, I’d take the “cash” option and invest most of it as well as give some of it away to various charities (which in a way could be thought of as investing in society)

[phaster]

[quote=harvey]There is no doubt that we are consuming fossil fuels at a rate orders of magnitude faster than the earth ever produced them.

The market can adjust to short-term supply and demand changes, but in the long-term we will run out.

Nobody really knows how far out long-term is. It could be a few decades, it could be a few centuries.[/quote]

FWIW the problem isn’t one of running out, the problem is how much will it cost to extract and get the resource to market. Personally I’d bet society will have no choice but to face the reality of the problem in decades, based upon the burn rate and the fact that:

A staggering 98 tons of prehistoric, buried plant material – that’s 196,000 pounds – is required to produce each gallon of gasoline we burn in our cars, SUVs, trucks and other vehicles

http://unews.utah.edu/news_releases/bad-mileage-98-tons-of-plants-per-gallon/

[phaster]

[quote=CA renter]
As usual, phaster, you don’t know what you’re talking about. You like throwing shit at the wall to see what will stick, hoping that the readers of your posts won’t actually know anything about the issues. Unfortunately for you, you’ve come to the wrong place. If you have some data to back up that $4.1 trillion in unfunded pension liabilities, I’d sure like to see it. Out here in the real world…
[/quote]

Since I only pop in and post from time to time, I think I don’t throw as much shit around and sees what sticks as you (looking at the frequency of posts)

To answer your question (about the real world) I calculated the figure, awhile ago after reviewing a Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government working paper titled:

Underfunded Public Pensions
in the United States:
The Size of the Problem, the Obstacles to Reform and the Path Forward

within which there is a graph (fig 4) showing a range of present value calculations

the 4.1 trillion PV figure (I selected) was my own back of the napkin so to speak “secret sause” PV calculation which is within range of other studies and could be thought of as another “trial” w/in an experimental calculation

the high end bias (I selected) is due to the fact that the CA Controller just released a report of exponential growth in the debt associated with public pensions within the state…

“Chiang added public pension systems to his already large fiscal database. One chart reveals that their “unfunded liabilities” – the gap between assets and liabilities for current and future pensions – exploded from $6.3 billion in 2003 to $198.2 billion in 2013.”

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/dan-walters/article3507521.html

if as you claim the total unfunded public pension debt is just over a trillion dollars, then subtracting about 200 billion from a trillion means that rest of the 49 states – there is about 800 billion unfunded pension debt for ALL the rest of the states like new york, Illinois, etc. (and that does not take into account municipal governments – i.e cities and counties)

http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2013/09/09/20-best-worst-states-for-pension-funding?page_all=1

I’m guessing from the other thread (specifically about unfunded public pensions and portfolio management)

http://piggington.com/how_will_unfunded_pensions_affect_economy?page=4

[quote=EconProf]
CAR, the (apparent) fact that your husband is a firefighter explains your strong defense of government sector unions. We all get that. I don’t know why you won’t admit it. Piggs are smart enough and fair-minded enough to look beyond that fact and weigh the arguments and evidence based on their merits.
[/quote]

[quote=joec]
Because CAR likes to believe she is a good person and isn’t out to get what’s best for herself and her loved ones.

I don’t blame CAR, but this is true for pretty much everyone in society including all the wall street, big business types, etc…Everyone just wants their piece of meat and screw the hells with everyone else.

That’s life…honestly. It doesn’t hurt to look in the mirror and admit it (I know I do and can care less for plenty of things/people/etc…).

Best course of action for everyone is just find ways to avoid getting taxed I think and be able and flexible to move…If you can find ways to like get solar, your own water, police/fire protection, etc…do it…or find tax advantaged ways to generate very to 0 income, and live off capital gains, tax exempt bonds, etc…

Since her husband is a fire fighter, that makes her whole argument biased already since any change will greatly affect her own life so take anything mentioned with buckets of salt.
[/quote]

etc…

your response will be its all a right wing “republican” conspiracy!

BUT I’m going point out before hand that Chiang (the CA controller) who reported an unfunded liabilities debt of about 200 billion (as of 2013) is a “democratic”

so for now all I can add is, what is going to be interesting (and the only way to know which POV is actually right) is watching how economic headwinds due to unfunded public pension actually affect society and immigration patterns in years to come

http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/are-public-pensions-taking-excessive-risks

[phaster]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Student loans are a bigger worry in the shorter term. Debts are preventing household formation and home buying.[/quote]

Have to disagree, that student loans are the bigger problem (short term). Just look at the magnitude of each component of the “difficult/unserviceable debt” and the context.

Broadly speaking in ascending order, here is a list of various “debt” problem(s).

“the volume of total subprime auto loans increased roughly 15 percent, to $145.6 billion“

There is “a $518 billion total pool of HELOCs“ (i.e. people using their homes as an ATM)

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/11/26/are-heloc-defaults-about-to-spike/

$1.2 Trillion College Debt Crisis

“According to The Institute for College Access and Success (TICAS) Project on Student Debt, the average borrower will graduate $26,600 in the red.”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/specialfeatures/2013/08/07/how-the-college-debt-is-crippling-students-parents-and-the-economy/

I hear what you’re saying there is a “negative” feed back going on, with recent graduates having a difficult time getting a start in the job market, this kicks the can down the road of household formation and home buying BUT

There is “a [dark] cloud totaling $4.1 trillion dollars for state-administered public pension plans“

http://www.statebudgetsolutions.org/publications/detail/promises-made-promises-broken-the-betrayal-of-pensioners-and-taxpayers

[edited 12/14/2014 – added a “link” and a graphic showing a range of PV calculation from a Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government working paper titled:

Underfunded Public Pensions
in the United States:
The Size of the Problem, the Obstacles to Reform and the Path Forward]

http://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/fwp/2012-08

Keep in mind the reason I think “unfunded” public pensions will be the trigger event (of the next economic downturn) is because of the change in accounting rules starting in 2015 (which puts debts on the balance sheet and will affect “muni” bond ratings).

Looking at the big picture…

America – its government, businesses, and people – are nearly $60 trillion in debt

“The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the economy will stall by 2017 because Americans will continue spending, but wages and wealth won’t be going up…

Economists have not agreed on how to stave off the impending crisis. But Americans’ addiction to spending on credit will not help.”

http://rt.com/usa/166352-us-total-debt-sixty-trillion/

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO

[phaster]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=phaster]

to give ya an idea how bad I think it is consider that Fannie Mae and Freddie “The two GSEs have outstanding more than US$ 5 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS)”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_takeover_of_Fannie_Mae_and_Freddie_Mac
[/quote]

That’s not bad. MBS means the assets of Fannie and Freddie are backed by the equity in the homes of Americans. I believe the homes in America are worth that much and more.[/quote]

you are missing the multi TRILLION dollar point, I used MBS as a datum to illustrate the magnitude of the economic problem w.r.t. unfunded pensions!

http://piggington.com/how_will_unfunded_pensions_affect_economy?page=4

with MBS there is indeed RE assets backing things up; HOWEVER with unfunded public pensions the magnitude of the problem is in the TRILLIONS and those “promises” were made by individuals with oversized political egos (who have no understanding of math or markets) and didn’t set aside enuf monies so there are insufficient assets to backup ALL the public pension IOUs!!

just like hollywood or communist propaganda which exists in a fantasy world (with little or no basis in truth) past and present oversized political egos want to save face

therefore bureaucrats would like tax payers make up the difference of what is in the till and what was promised to various public employees over the years.

figure since you have “flyer” as part of your web moniker, you might be familiar with the old top gun movie line:

“Your Ego Is Writing Cheques Your Body Can’t Cash”

from 2007 to the present we have seen that when RE is mismanaged and accounting standards relaxed, we get an economic bubble and a long sucky economic era (which 99% of people live in)

what too few have pondered is what is going to happen to future generations, by ignoring the multi TRILLION dollar economic problem of unfunded pensions

said another way big egos wrote checks that can’t be cashed!!!

http://news.yahoo.com/video/san-diego-leaders-star-funny-220600127.html

basically by ignoring the unfunded pension problem, its akin to stress building up more and more on a tectonic plate

the economic environment is OK for most part now, and at the current moment san diego seems to appeal to “millennials” so rents and RE prices reflect that “reality”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/10/millennials-can-afford-to-become-homeowners-just-not-where-most-of-them-live/

BUT its important to have a road map for times ahead, to try and be aware of problems

if you have a chance read an article about what happened in japan because “millennials” I seem to think are following what happened over there….

“When Japan’s real-estate bubble burst, young people had no point of reference other than boom times. So when the job market dried up, many of them welcomed the chance for self-exploration.

But we should spare a thought for our friends across the Pacific—not just for their sake but for ours as well. No one knows why Japan’s economy never fully recovered, but some economists are starting to trace the problem to young people like Iwabuchi who cannot find good jobs, don’t learn new skills, and neither earn nor spend enough to help get the economy moving.”

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/05/the-slacker-trap/309285/

[phaster]

[quote=flu]

The secret sauce for why the chinese have been able to advance so quickly is simple…(1) Deny the majority of the dumb people in the country the opportunity to have a say in the decision making process of anything (2) Invest heavily in well educated tech people and import experts from all over the world so they can learn from them (3) Dump a bunch of money into businesses and relax regulation to the point of almost “anything goes”

You really think they build they high speed bullet train all by themselves? Nope. They brought in the experts from europe…And now, they know how to build high speed rails…. Same could be said for other tech…

Democracy is the fairest system in the world. However, it’s not the most efficient system…[/quote]

actually back in the day I came to the conclusion that a well governed “republic” is the most efficient system

http://www.diffen.com/difference/Democracy_vs_Republic

sadly from what have seen, is the elected leadership of the USA have the mental capacity of pre-school kids and also “govern” according to the law of of the pre-school sand box (basic I don’t want to share the toys or space in the sand box)

[phaster]

[quote=CA renter]
Except that they have been using up all of their ammunition and there will be precious little left when the SHTF moment happens. They have masked the problem by *growing* the problem. The 2008 crisis was more difficult for them to manage than the 2000/2001 crisis, and the next one will be even worse because the numbers are growing larger and the problems are becoming more systemic with every new manufactured crisis.[/quote]

to give ya an idea how bad I think it is consider that Fannie Mae and Freddie “The two GSEs have outstanding more than US$ 5 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS)”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_takeover_of_Fannie_Mae_and_Freddie_Mac

BUT that MBS figure is dwarfed because the unfunded public pensions alone I read is in the 4.1 trillion dollar range, and the real “unfunded” public pension figure basically doubles if one considers health care costs

[quote=CA renter]
There is no smoke, nor any fire, from what I can see. If you have any evidence or reason to believe that there was fraud, please make your case.
[/quote]

been checking back every once in a while to see if anyone had something to add/say

http://piggington.com/how_will_unfunded_pensions_affect_economy?page=4

so wondering have I made my case….

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/congressional-leaders-hammer-out-deal-to-allow-pension-plans-to-cut-retiree-benefits/2014/12/09/4650d420-7ef6-11e4-9f38-95a187e4c1f7_story.html?tid=pm_business_pop

[phaster]

[quote=CA renter]
2.) Responding to that first link of yours, though, this has nothing at all to do with the Mills Act. The Mills Act is a California state program; the program in your link is federal.

If you have some issue with a particular property having a Mills Act designation, you should look up why they have that designation.

3.) Again, the issue with the software does not point to any fraud. There was no fraud found when they *tried* to find problems with the system. There is no smoke, nor any fire, from what I can see. If you have any evidence or reason to believe that there was fraud, please make your case. The fact is that fraud *can* be committed all over the place — in the public and private sectors — but we don’t get to randomly accuse people of fraud when there is no evidence nor reason to believe that any fraud was committed.

4.) I’m not sure how your parents would have been accessories to insurance fraud if the owner of the other property was willing to fix the problem and pay for it. Are you saying that he was filing a claim? That’s not made clear based on your posts. Quite frankly, if the owner was willing to pay to fix the problem, I’m not sure what the complaint is about.
[/quote]

The current (political and bureaucratic) SD management, seem to have a “history” of looking the other way kinda like the old sgt schultz character,

[quote=livinincali]
I worked on a project for RISK management about 12 years ago, which is the San Diego’s self funded disability insurance office. What firefighter and cops did at retirement was pretty bad. That was more a case of disability fraud, where if you retire under disability 50% of you pension income is tax free. But there were crazy things in the payroll system. People claiming to work more than 24 hours in a day. People claiming light duty (aka a disability claim) and regular duty in the same day.
[/quote]

The link:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/us-seeks-to-end-tax-break-for-facade-easement-donations/2011/07/05/gIQAFsH35H_story.html

In recent years, the Internal Revenue Service has denied 70 percent of facade easement deductions, court filings show. Since 2002, the Justice Department estimates that inflated easement deductions have totaled $1.2 billion.

is directly related to fact that with a “historic property” classification its possible to game federal taxes (with a city policy)

Ability to donate a facade easement to the city or other historical preservation agency as a charitable donation deduction from income taxes.

Still don’t see the connection with software developed by the city that “allows for fraud?”

Bottom line, I was un-necessarly dragged into court and had to face delaying tactics because I seem to have uncovered a web of dishonesty no one wants to admit to (while initially I had concerns about being an accessory to insurance fraud)

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/22060281/bway_sewer_line_docs/is_it_insurance_fraud.pdf

[phaster]

[quote=harvey][quote=CA renter]CalSTRS just enacted a new plan to pay off their unfunded liabilities over 32 years (because they can…because it’s not a DC system) by increasing contributions from all stakeholders. Most of the other pension funds are working on the numbers and legislation to pay off their unfunded liabilities, as well.[/quote]

Whew! That’s a relief!

It’s good to hear that CalSTRS has a 32 year plan that will fix the problem.

Their execution for the past thirty years has been a total failure, but I’m sure they’ll get it right after a a few more decades.

And “most of the the other” fiscal time bombs are “working on the numbers and the legislation” …

Sounds like everything is under control. No worries![/quote]

Thought I’d drop in after the watching the market head south the past few days…

Thank god…

SD PENSION “officials close to the system say it is designed to balance out the fund’s holdings and protect it against big losses in the event of a stock-market meltdown.”

http://online.wsj.com/articles/san-diego-pension-dials-up-the-risk-to-combat-a-shortfall-1407974779

actually given the magnitude of the problem (and burn rate) if california/SD makes it 8 years (a quarter of the 32 year plan) w/o going bankrupt I’d be surprised…

[phaster]

[quote=FlyerInHi]spd, New York and London are not just the financial capitals of their respective countries, but financial capitals of the world. Beginning with oil money decades ago, the money sloshing around the world is invested in NY, London, Singapore, HK, Dubai.

Financial innovation is a great export for us.[/quote]

personally, I think some of the “financial innovation” is giant step backwards!!!

take credit default swaps for instance (which is basically “insurance” on a bond, that you need not own)

the reason “swaps” are not a good idea, is because it would be akin to you taking out homeowners insurance policy (worth a million dollars) on a “crack” house in detroit (worth a thousand dollars) that you did not own

these “swaps” were side bets, in the market are what caused the US government to take over AIG (basically AIG did not have the “reserves” set aside to to cover the “insurance” on various “bonds”)

Also I don’t see any benefit for financial innovation like “stated income” mortgage loans, etc…

Recall financial deregulation during the ’80 produced the S&L crisis and hit texas pretty hard

Fast forward to what just happened a few years ago, across the nation, cash-outs became ubiquitous during the mortgage boom, as skyrocketing house prices made it possible for homeowners, even those with bad credit, to use their home equity like an ATM. But not in Texas. There, cash-outs and home-equity loans cannot total more than 80 percent of a home’s appraised value.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/03/AR2010040304983.html

Give me KISS (keep it simple …) in finance!

[phaster]

[quote=CA renter]Additionally, we can reduce the waste, fraud, and abuse that goes on in the public sector…like building a road or bridge to a well-connected “friend” of a politician. Note the stories posted by phaster to see how the corruption was specifically concentrated around entities in the PRIVATE SECTOR. No unions or boots-on-the-ground public employees were mentioned in the story where millions were diverted to various parties.[/quote]

Actually I think the role about unions or boots-on-the-ground public employees remains un-answered,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/us-seeks-to-end-tax-break-for-facade-easement-donations/2011/07/05/gIQAFsH35H_story.html

then re-read what I actually posted…

[quote=phaster][quote=CA renter]
And that KPBS link regarding the software that would allow for “fraudulent” transactions? NO FRAUD WAS FOUND. The issue here is that the auditors thought some employees had access to certain modules in the software that they shouldn’t necessarily have access to. It’s like people in sales having access to the accounting modules. The apparent reason for this is that the building/planning department is understaffed, and people are trained to do more than one thing when necessary. It also looks like they are working on fixing this.

“Luna recommends 13 changes to the Development Services Department including restructuring its management to create greater internal controls, separating employees’ responsibilities so they can’t access as much of the computer system and documenting more changes to individual permits. He attributed much of the failures to inefficient staffing, high workloads, limited supervision and deficiencies with the computer system itself.

http://www.kpbs.org/news/2012/jul/03/citys-development-system-major-fraud-risk-says-aud/%5B/quote%5D

What’s the old saying “where there smoke there is fire”

In general, people don’t like bad news so they don’t dig for it. Then there is tendency of people not wanting to admit anything thing is wrong (if they missed something the first time around), so if the root cause of a problem is not fully understood, it can’t be fixed!

IMHO TPTB are in denial (much like an individual who has a substance abuse problem), unfortunately for me I inherited an issue that required me to try and figure out the root cause of a bad news problem.

If ya first look at the MLS for the property (which was sold in 2006), it shows no structure (because it was torn down after a homicide investigation back in 1988), therefore the plans submitted to the city for a permit that show a “termite infested detached garage” to be replaced is a fraudulent statement!

Given all the historical documents (like a 1929 documents showing an easement, along with city maps indicating utilities in place), news reports that the the city has software that allows fraud and the statement from an eMail dated 9/23

“In addition, based on preparation of a thorough historical report on our property to apply for a historical designation of the residence, no existence of any sewer line or associated easement was noted on any of the historical documents/maps we researched.”

there as you can see, lots of “interesting” questions one can ask about the “integrity” of the building permit process, along with questions about “historical property” designations.

Being god fearing and honest all their lives, the last thing my parents wanted to do was be an accessory to insurance fraud (because an offer was given to fix the mess from the builders/owner of the construction project)

Because there were lots of questions/concerns my parents parents “informally” worked their way up the chain of command to eventually goldsmith and gloria, asking for an investigation.

So after my parents died, I inherited the whole damn mess which legally put me between a rock and a hard place.

The city IMHO basically swept the whole problem under the carpet, because after the scandal allowing a skyscraper (the sun road building) to be built too tall next to an airport (as per FAA regulations) to fix the software that won’t allow fraud has a pretty high price tag (financially and politically), then there is the tricky question what about all those tax credits based on “historical property” status.

Trying to do the right thing, cost me well into six figures of legal and repair costs (basically had to cave in because it was my only survival option after I was sued for “quiet title” )

I’ve been more financially fortunate than most, having a legacy my parents left me as well as managing to save and invest my own monies, so I can survive a six figure hit. But I’ve learned the game is rigged, and its not only wall street “greed” that is causing the economy to hurt those in the so called 99%…

I am not a lawyer, but was able to piece together case law “logic” that seems to fit the fact pattern…

“Obtaining Recovery for Property Damage through Inverse Condemnation”
http://www.lacba.org/files/lal/vol33no10/2774.pdf

ARREOLA v. MONTEREY COUNTY
An entity with the power to control a project need not actively participate in it to suffer liability.

BOOKOUT v. STATE OF CALIFORNIA
a five-year statute of limitations applies only where a public entity has physically entered and exercised dominion and control over some portion of the plaintiff’s property.

Main body logic…

HARSHBARGER v. CITY OF COLTON
1) there is a mandatory duty for building inspectors to enforce building codes because of public safety concerns
2) an exception to the rule of sovereign immunity is fraudulent inspection

BLAIR v. MAHON
3) failure to speak is a species of fraud

HORWITZ v. CITY OF LOS ANGELES
4) “Just as the city has no discretion to deny a building permit when an applicant has complied with all applicable ordinances, the city has no discretion to issue a permit in the absence of compliance”

Is section 1983 Applicable???

MAXWELL v. COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO
5) the court ruled that the officers were not entitled to qualified immunity because of the danger creation exception

(9th circuit has addressed the legal standard issue in “danger creation” cases and agrees with the majority view that a heightened level of culpability, i.e., more than mere negligence is required. Specifically, in Grubbs II, the court held a plaintiff must plead and prove “deliberate indifference.”

pleadings and briefs are available upon request see:

http://www.mcnicholaslaw.com/CM/Custom/MSM_PMc-Governmental-Torts.pdf)

The silver lining, in this whole mess is I have had my eyes opened to looking at issues (like public pensions, etc.) in a whole new light.[/quote]

I made a promise to my dad to find out exactly what happened, so any legal experts care to share their opinion…

FWIW just listened to a podcast story that involved the “old boys club” (another economic term I discovered is “regulatory capture”)

The Secret Recordings of Carmen Segarra

An unprecedented look inside one of the most powerful, secretive institutions in the country. The NY Federal Reserve is supposed to monitor big banks. But when Carmen Segarra was hired, what she witnessed inside the Fed was so alarming that she got a tiny recorder and started secretly taping

http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/536/the-secret-recordings-of-carmen-segarra

Getting back to the question “how will unfunded pensions affect the local economy,” I googled the term “san diego pensions” and found a 2010 article that stated the san diego region is on the hook for 45.4 BILLION (in public pensions and related health care costs)

http://www.edchoice.org/CMSModules/EdChoice/FileLibrary/593/CA-Pension-Brief—Trouble-Brewing-in-San-Diego.pdf

I also googled how many parcels in SD/SD county, and the number I found was just over a million. So if you own a home/condo in the region (on a parcel), your share of the “unfunded” pension debt amounts to about $45,000….

Couple of last news items, it was just reported that CalPERS is no better than bondholders in the stockton bankruptcy

California cities may turn to bankruptcy courts to ease pension obligations after a judge ruled the California Public Employees’ Retirement System doesn’t deserve special protection

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-01/calpers-denied-special-protection-in-stockton-bankruptcy.html

Given all the facts, what does everyone think the odds are of SD going the bankruptcy route?

Personally, I think its not a matter of if, but when something in the overall US economy has to give…

Largest Public Pensions Face $2 Trillion Hole, Moody’s Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-25/largest-u-s-public-pensions-face-2-trillion-gap-moody-s-says.html

[phaster]

[quote=CA renter]
You’re also clearly ignorant about the differences between DB and DC pensions. DC plans have higher administrative costs and lower returns; DC plans have access to fewer investment options; DC plans don’t pool longevity risk; DC plans have lower contribution limits than DB plans (for employer and employee); and DB plans can remain in higher-yielding and more diversified investments and can better manage the ups and downs of the market over time because they are continuously funded by the contributions of current employees and their employers, and benefits are staggered well into the future (pooled investment risks over time and number of people).[/quote]

News reports about CalPERS and the SD pension board, leads me to believe idiots who over estimate their own management abilities AND have no basic understanding of math or the investing paradox, are at the helm.

Given your logic since CalPERS and SD have “professional” managers, elected board(s) to provide oversight and access to diversified investments, then why haven’t they beat the market benchmarks (i.e. the index of the DJ30 or S&P500)?

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx

IMHO its because of the “investing paradox.”

Simply stated a disciplined small/individual investor can beat market averages over long periods of time, because their trades fly under the radar and are “un-noticed” by the market.

However when the portfolio is in the BILLIONS (as is the case w/ SD), or the HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS (as is the case w/ CalPERS), any trade they make I’d argue is the market (so a different investment style is needed).

[quote=phaster]
[quote=livinincali]
The one benefit of defined benefit contribution plans, retention, isn’t worth the risks, the frauds, the vote buying, and everything else it enables. That’s the bottom line. The rewards (reduced training costs retention, etc.) don’t outweigh the risks and therefore they should be scrapped..[/quote]

Agree! And after doing some research, seems the best way forward is to follow the example set by the Thrift Saving Plan (a federal government 401K style program, that can’t be corrupted/mismanaged like what happend at CalPERS or as what is happening with the SD pension program)

https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/fundsoverview/comparisonMatrix.shtml
[/quote]

The Thrift Savings Plan, used by millions of federal workers, is like a 401(k), except it’s a lot cheaper. Last year it charged an average expense ratio of a mere 0.03%. That means just $3 in fees for $10,000 in savings, or $30 for a $100,000 portfolio.

John Turner, an economist and director of the Pension Policy Center and a former federal worker himself, said “Unless they’re advanced investors, I think they should leave their funds in the TSP because it’s simple and it’s easy enough that most investors can do it and do it well”

http://money.cnn.com/2014/10/01/retirement/federal-workers-leaving-thrift-savings-plans/

[Author]

Posts