Interesting sell off this morning!

[moneymaker]

All part of the gradual slide down in my opinion. Just wish I could take advantage of these rash movements with my 401K, alas I’m bound by there end of the day order rules.

[spdrun]

NASDAQ is down 10.3% off peak. We’re officially in a correction.

[livinincali]

Market will probably close near the lows of the day. Get that order in and buy the dip. Of course I don’t expect that to work out very well for most investors. I do expect a bounce soon but if that bounce fails to make a new high look out below.

[spdrun]

Hopefully, a new high won’t happen soon. There are two choices:
(1) A 10-20% additional correction, taking us to mid-2013 levels on the indices.
(2) Another bounce to unrealistic valuations and then 50-60% down a year from now.

Corrections are healthy and normal. Best possible choice would be (1) followed by a flat market for years or a very slow melt-up. We need steadiness and predictability, not a constant roller coaster of speculative bubbles.

[scaredyclassic]

Need?

The market, the earth and society cares less what we need.

The only person who loves me is my mama and she might be jiving too

[The-Shoveler]

Got to admit it sure looks like we are going down,
Would not have guessed it, in L.A. things are going gang busters.
Usually I can tell when we are going into a slow down just by the freeway traffic in L.A.
If we don’t bounce today I think we are going down.
IMO anyway

[Coronita]

15,900…… I think I will put some money back into indexes…

[outtamojo]

VIX is 30’s, near traditional SHORT term buy levels.

[spdrun]

If the Fed can stage-manage this into a correction, then a SLOW melt-up, then it would be a brilliant coup, unlike 2003 and 2009.

Seriously, this is an opportunity for the Fed and Congress to work together on real stimulus vs blowing bubbles.

[The-Shoveler]

Real stimulus creates bubbles and inflation,
bubbles create real jobs and inflation.

pick your poison.

what is real stimulus anyway?

[spdrun]

You can have steady growth and slow inflation without bubbles. Our economy grew from the late 80s to mid 90s without the sort of boom-and-bust stock market behavior seen from 1995 to the present.

If anything, the cycle of bubble and busts since then has set us back at least twice.

[The-Shoveler]

late 80’s to the mid 90’s was the recovery from the defense bubble in the early to late 80’s LOL.

It took 10 years 1989 – 1999 for most RE to recover.

[spdrun]

Nope. No stock market bubbles to dwarf previous bubbles since 1995. Nothing here to see. 1987 was considered a bad crash, and it was mild compared to early 2000s and 2008.

If we’d followed the trendline from the 80s through mid 90s, we’d be at about S&P 1000 now without two major recessionary shocks.

As far as real-estate “recovering” from a defence bubble in the early 80s, “recovery” implies that it was fairly priced in the early 80s. And that the re-pricing after the defence bubble burst was a disease, not strong medicine.

[The-Shoveler]

When did 401K come into effect.

A lot of that is just 401K induced. NY would still be like it was in the 70’s had it not been for the 401K IMO.

[spdrun]

401(k) was codified in the late 70s and became popular in the mid-80s. Roth IRA came into being in late 90s. (Personally, I think laws should discourage risky investments as tax-free retirement vehicles, and either guarantee a decent gov’t pension to everyone, or mandate investment in very safe areas. Retirement shouldn’t be a casino.)

I can’t speak to the 70s, but frankly, I liked many aspects of NYC in the 1980s and early 90s. Cheap, more economically diverse, and less rule-abiding.

I remember someone complaining about paying $500/mo for a big 2 bedroom place on the Lower East Side in the early 90s.

Personally, I hope that a slowdown in the financial industry would force a diversification of the city into things like tech firms and R&D. A lot of creative effort put towards the finance industry (shifting Monopoly money around) is actually wasted effort — imagine if more of our best and brightest went into engineering and hard science vs finance. We have the world-class universities and a lot of damn smart people.

Keep in mind that Bell Labs was founded in NYC, so this would not be unprecedented.

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