Forum Replies Created
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when Trump and his administration see and say its an “Alternative fact”
I think perhaps its “An inability to reason” or some kind of “Delusional disorder”
“Trump drew significantly fewer people than Obama did eight years ago, and Obama’s crowd has been estimated at around 1.8 million people. So Trump’s estimate of 1.5 million people seems unlikely”
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/1/21/14347298/trump-inauguration-crowd-size
PS FWIW an “alternative fact” mindset also describes and perhaps explains why some see no problems w/ the business as usual management of the local public pensions
[quote=CA renter]
[quote=phaster]
let me guess, you’re going to respond by saying the academic report I found by googling is all part of a grand conspiracy by individuals like harvey, to take away earned entitlements of honest hard-working public employee union members who have contracts that were dutifully researched by individuals like yourself
[quote=CA renter]
October 1, 2014 – 9:23pmYes, I’ve been following the pension issue for many, many years (far, far, far longer than you have), and I have also worked with negotiating committees and have done research for public employee unions.
http://piggington.com/how_will_unfunded_pensions_affect_economy?page=3#comment-247382
[/quote][/quote]
[/quote]correct my logic if I’m wrong but looking @ the data, seems as presently structured and operated the local portfolio mathematically sure seems no different than an unsustainable Ponzi scheme
starting w/ the three decade practice of a 13th pension payment, which the SDCERS board approved yet again for 2016 despite a recently reported $380 million “debt” spike
[quote]
SDCERS Board Approves 13th Check and Corbett Benefits for 2016
Nov 04, 2016The San Diego City Employees’ Retirement System (SDCERS) Board of Administration approved the payment of the “13th Check” supplemental benefit and the Corbett settlement benefit for eligible retirees. Eligible retirees will receive the payment as part of their November 2016 monthly retirement benefit.
The “13th Check” and Corbett settlement benefits are paid in years when the realized investment earnings of the fund are sufficient to pay them.
https://www.sdcers.org/News/Latest-News/By-Category/13th-Check-and-Corbett-,-Board,-News-Articles-,.aspx
[/quote][quote]
San Diego facing new pension debt
Sept 08, 2016A recent $380 million spike in San Diego’s pension debt is forcing city officials to debate whether to begin paying that bill now or take the controversial step of pushing the financial pain several years down the road.
…The spike, which is the result of a new actuarial study showing that city employees and retirees are living significantly longer, would increase the city’s annual pension payment — $261 million this year — by $35 million, or more than 13 percent.
That increase would help the city continue to cover annual pension benefits for retired employees and continue steadily paying down its unfunded, long-term pension liability, which the new study increased from $2 billion to nearly $2.4 billion.
Mayor Kevin Faulconer and the City Council created the city’s first pension stabilization fund last spring with a $16 million initial contribution, but they didn’t expect the money to get wiped out in one year.
To put figures into context, for the finances to work out there is an assumption that the portfolio custodian(s) will look at certain performance benchmarks (i.e. that the over all value of the portfolio grows @ 7.25% each year)
[quote]
SDCERS Board of Administration Adjusts Discount Rate to 7.25%
Nov 08, 2013The San Diego City Employees’ Retirement System (SDCERS) Board of Administration today voted to reduce the System’s discount rate to 7.25%, affirming a recommendation by the system’s actuary Cheiron.
Yet the latest reported FY return of just a hair above 1% is far below the target of 7.25% so elementary school math tells me in effect the “debt” grows ever larger and the BAU three decade old practice of a 13th pension payment only exacerbates the overall debt.
[quote]
SDCERS Reports Preliminary Return of 1.1% for Fiscal Year 2016
Aug 26, 2016San Diego City Employees’ Retirement System (SDCERS) reported a preliminary return of 1.1% (net of fees) for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2016. Despite the low absolute return, the performance was in the top third of the All Public Funds Universe obtained from BNY Mellon and Investment Metrics. Assets under management were $6.8 billion as of June 30, 2016.
https://www.sdcers.org/News/Latest-News/By-Category/Investments,-News-Articles-,-Press-Release.aspx
[/quote]FYI
[quote]
A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investing scam promising high rates of return with little risk to investors. The Ponzi scheme generates returns for older investors by acquiring new investors.http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/ponzischeme.asp
[/quote]where
translate.google.com “older investors” = “public employee unions” AND “politicians”
translate.google.com “new investors” = more burden placed on “tax payers”PS you all might find this interesting, a recent NY Times article:
mentioned “Calpers Cuts Investment Targets, Increasing Strain on Municipalities” and yet in San Diego County our “Supervisors, without debate, give initial approval to increasing their pay”
http://www.delmartimes.net/encinitas-advocate/news/sd-cm-enc-supervisors-raise-20161219-story.html
meanwhile the local school district is forced to make cuts (because of a mis-managed public pension portfolio)
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/topics/news/soaring-pension-costs-choking-sd-schools/
[sarcasm ON]
yeah I don’t see any economic problems ahead…
[sarcasm OFF]
[quote=CA renter]
[quote=phaster]
there’s nothing illegal or unethical about inheriting property and prop 13 IMHO is a spurious and tangential topic, but what the hell i’ll play alongi’ll be the first to admit i’m lucky to have a legacy which allows me some financial breathing room, and because of that i’m a pretty chill landlord who has never raised a tenant’s rent once they are in (kind of keeping with my parents management tradition), and appreciate prop 13 making costs predictable with respect to property taxes
as for how the market values RE (like an apt rental) I have no control over that, since it’s a global marketplace that is influenced by among other things the feds dual mandate to keep unemployment low and keep inflation in check @ around 2% (as explained in a planet-money podcast)
http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2016/09/30/496136504/episode-727-you-asked-for-it-again
as I see things, prop 13 is an economic moderator to keep TPTB in check and seems to have come about because TPTB were unable to moderate things in the first place
BTW seems your rants/proposals about “reforming” prop 13 are kinda like the rest of your economic analysis,… WORTHLESS DELUSIONS!!!!!!!!!!!! (took me all of two minutes of googling to find a study, with simple statement in the summary section that disproves a belief I’ll bet you’ve held for decades)
[/quote]Again, there’s your reading comprehension problem (and I taught comprehension, so know what I’m talking about with respect to that, too).
3.) Your claim that Prop 13 isn’t related to the pension problems also highlights your ignorance.
The #1 revenue source for most municipalities is property tax. If property taxes are not paid at the market rate, it absolutely affects their financial health and their ability to fund the pensions.
It’s pretty apparent that you are totally unfamiliar with how government entities operate.
Even phasters “talents” post includes a link to a study where they discuss a “split-roll” property tax scheme acknowledges that it would bring in an additional $6 billion per year, and that study only includes industrial and commercial buildings — the study does not include residential properties — no rental homes or apartment buildings, second homes, inherited properties, etc., nor does it include vast tracts of land that are taxed well below market rate. Again, if you did even a bit of “Googling,” as phaster did, you would know that.
[/quote]god help us, because your admitted “talent” of teaching reading comprehension is yet more one sided idiotic bravado
its true “the initial adjustment results in the increase of property taxes by some $6 billion” BUT YOU’RE DELIBERATELY IGNORING ADVERSE EFFECTS (note to all the report states as a result),… “Overall it is estimated that 396,345 jobs would be lostover the first five years of the proposed tax increase—a number that would grow in each subsequent year.”
[quote=publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu]
The Economic and Employment Effects of the Split RollThe economic and employment effects of the split roll are significant and, because of the removal of the Proposition 13 cap on growth in assessments, the impacts would likely continue to grow over time. The baseline scenario presented in this section represents the mid‐range estimate of these economic and employment effects. It assumes that the split roll is instituted in 2013 and that the initial adjustment results in the increase of property taxes by some $6 billion. Note that this is a significant increase in a tax stream that only totaled approximately $50 billion in 2009‐10.
The following table summarizes the five‐year estimated impacts of splitting the property tax roll on employment in California. Overall it is estimated that 396,345 jobs would be lost over the first five years of the proposed tax increase—a number that would grow in each subsequent year. Five years later, in 2021‐22, the annual estimated impact would total almost 112,000 additional jobs lost annually.
page 13
let me guess, you’re going to respond by saying the academic report I found by googling is all part of a grand conspiracy by individuals like harvey, to take away earned entitlements of honest hard-working public employee union members who have contracts that were dutifully researched by individuals like yourself
FWIW you do have a talent that’s consistent and actually harmful, sadly some share your BS delusion
your posts YET AGAIN demonstrate an inability to integrate middle school math and basic reading comprehension skills
http://piggington.com/how_will_unfunded_pensions_affect_economy?page=5#comment-262974
http://piggington.com/how_will_unfunded_pensions_affect_economy?page=6#comment-264989
this only reinforces my prognostication that the lack of “talents” by custodians and beneficiaries of the various portfolios will cause of the inevitable economic public pension debt bomb crisis few in government want to ponder (perhaps because of past “sins” like the three decade practice of a 13th pension payment, which the SDCERS board approved yet again, despite a recent $380 million “debt” spike)
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/watchdog/sdut-13th-check-2015dec18-htmlstory.html
[quote]
SDCERS Board Approves 13th Check and Corbett Benefits for 2016
November 4, 2016The San Diego City Employees’ Retirement System (SDCERS) Board of Administration approved the payment of the “13th Check” supplemental benefit and the Corbett settlement benefit for eligible retirees. Eligible retirees will receive the payment as part of their November 2016 monthly retirement benefit.
The “13th Check” and Corbett settlement benefits are paid in years when the realized investment earnings of the fund are sufficient to pay them.
https://www.sdcers.org/News/Latest-News/By-Category/13th-Check-and-Corbett-,-Board,-News-Articles-,.aspx
https://www.sdcers.org/Forms-Publications/Annual-Reports.aspx
[/quote][quote]
San Diego facing new pension debt
September 8, 2016A recent $380 million spike in San Diego’s pension debt is forcing city officials to debate whether to begin paying that bill now or take the controversial step of pushing the financial pain several years down the road.
…The spike, which is the result of a new actuarial study showing that city employees and retirees are living significantly longer, would increase the city’s annual pension payment — $261 million this year — by $35 million, or more than 13 percent.
That increase would help the city continue to cover annual pension benefits for retired employees and continue steadily paying down its unfunded, long-term pension liability, which the new study increased from $2 billion to nearly $2.4 billion.
Mayor Kevin Faulconer and the City Council created the city’s first pension stabilization fund last spring with a $16 million initial contribution, but they didn’t expect the money to get wiped out in one year.
[quote]
Handbook of Frauds, Scams, and Swindles: Failures of Ethics in Leadership (edited by Serge Matulich, David M. Currie)Though SDCERS investments were earning well above the 8 percent rate of return estimated by the system actuaries, under normal conditions investments surpluses are required to make up for below-average returns in other years to achieve the average rate of return. Therefore, unless the actuaries’ estimates are grossly incorrect, in the long run true “surplus earnings” are impossible. The use of surplus earnings for the purposes other than maintaining the pension system, such as to expand existing benefits should be viewed as a loan from the system THAT WILL REQUIRE REPAYMENT IN THE FUTURE.
page 286
I’m apprehensive what the next four years will bring in the economic and political realm, but agree with a statement president elect Trump made,… “We will never fix a rigged system by relying on the people who rigged it in the first place.”
[quote=CA renter]
October 1, 2014 – 9:23pmYes, I’ve been following the pension issue for many, many years (far, far, far longer than you have), and I have also worked with negotiating committees and have done research for public employee unions.
http://piggington.com/how_will_unfunded_pensions_affect_economy?page=3#comment-247382
[/quote]
