Forum Replies Created
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I’m evaluating various golden trinkets as investment vehicles/fashion-statements
[quote=POTUS]
With Obama and Bernanke destroying the value of the dollar, gold and real estate should continue to rise in value.With Obama and Bernanke destroying the value of the dollar, gold and real estate should continue to rise in value.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 24, 2012
[/quote]
http://www.guggenheim.org/blogs/checklist/maurizio-cattelans-golden-toilet-in-the-time-of-trump
huh, no response?
since its almost halloween,… cue spooky back ground music
In aviation accident investigations there is something called an “Error chain”
Basically an aircraft CRASH isn’t the result of one single event, the end result happens because of the culmination of “errors”
As it stands climate change and pension portfolio (mis)management, are the direct result of a culmination of human “errors”
My own reading of the tea leaves, indicates that a “crash” will most likely happen first w/ in the financial system specifically because various $hit for brains love of money (i.e. pension benefits) were allocated w/ out considering the big picture and underlying basic math.
[quote]
http://www.TinyURL.com/OptimisticMath
[/quote]
Unfortunately politicians, public-employee union leadership and partisan supporters have a vested interest in keeping the existing system in place, much like the petrochemical and coal industry don’t want to acknowledge their own addiction to the economic status quo.
If we consider “The Drake equation” which is a way to estimate the number of ACTIVE ET civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWu5GXh0gyQ
and “The Fermi Paradox (filter)” which is a way of considering how an ET civilization might kill itself off
AND then ponder left to our own devices, the natural psychological tendency is we always want more (i.e. human greed) therefore I have to conclude aspects w/ in the economy (i.e. DEBT) is yet another weapon of destruction that has the ability to decimate a civilization.
Bottom line given existing trends and complexity of the system, its best we learn to carefully manage and control DEBT to prevent the BIG CRASH from happening. In other words the BIG CRASH is perhaps why “Stephen Hawking believes we have 100 years left on Earth – and he’s not the only one”
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/stephen-hawking-100-years-on-earth-prediction-starmus-festival
kitten, orange
surprised no one mentioned the obvious “tigger”
or was that name not put out there because disney charges licensing fees to use the name?
[quote=SK in CV][quote=phaster]
given bold statements, care to share any verifiable expertise on the topic, as per piggington forums moto “In God We Trust. Everyone Else Bring data” ???FWIW the WSJ author seems to have a formal education on applicable topics as well as work experience (and you ???)
[/quote]
Yeah, I’m a CPA. I’ve been preparing and reviewing financial statements for more than 40 years. I don’t report on it. I actually do it.[/quote]
data??? otherwise…
[quote=SK in CV][quote=harvey][quote=SK in CV]I didn’t read the rest of the comment so I don’t know what the point was. History tells me there really wasn’t one. But this quote, containing a lot of fancy phrases, and important sounding words, makes no sense. There may be a transaction that the author was attempting to describe. This isn’t it. This is just words strung together. Bait, if you will, for conspiracy theorists, who don’t really understand shit about the subject.[/quote]
It’s not a “comment” – it’s an article from the WSJ.[/quote]
Right, which is kinda why I read that part and didn’t read the rest. It’s a shit article. Go figure.[/quote]
[quote=SK in CV]
SPE’s exist. They are not proof, in fact, they’re not even evidence of any shadow inventory. They don’t get assets (or liabilities) of any banks’ balance sheet. Shadow inventory was a myth 8 years ago. It was a myth 6 years ago. It was a myth 4 years ago. It is still a myth.https://piggington.com/re_shadow_inventory#comment-277666
[/quote]given bold statements, care to share any verifiable expertise on the topic, as per piggington forums moto “In God We Trust. Everyone Else Bring data” ???
FWIW the WSJ author seems to have a formal education on applicable topics as well as work experience (and you ???)
[quote]
Tracy Byrnes is an award-winning writer specializing in tax and accounting issues. As a freelancer, she has written columns for wsj.com and the New York Post and her work has appeared in SmartMoney and on CBS MarketWatch. Prior to freelancing, she spent four years as a senior writer for TheStreet.com. Before that, she was an accountant with Ernst & Young. She has a B.A. in English and economics from Lehigh University and an M.B.A. in accounting from Rutgers University.
https://www.thestreet.com/author/263/TracyByrnes/all.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tracy_Byrnes
[/quote]as for “go figure” verification of “conspiracy theorists, fancy words/phrases” article
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1014329454674201960
indicating SPEs get assets (or liabilities) from banks’ balance sheet (for both legitimate and illegitimate uses)
[quote]
Uses and Abuses Of Special Purpose EntitiesSpecial Purpose Entity (SPE) is a global term, and is used interchangeably with the term Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV). An SPE is either a Trust or a Company. SPEs can be either on shore or offshore. … The assets are then used as collateral for notes issued by the SPE.
[/quote]PS just an educated guess that your dismissal of SPEs and other topics mentioned (like pensions) aside from being somewhat complex, has more to do w/ personal feelings rather than facts…
[quote=SK in CV]
[quote=no_such_reality]
The lump sum payments are stunning.
[/quote]
I suspect much of these “one time payments” are their own money they’re getting back. My brother retired after 33 years with the SDPD last year, and would have been 4th on the list if the search criteria would have been different…https://piggington.com/how_will_unfunded_pensions_affect_economy?page=1#comment-247006
[/quote][quote]
Contributions to public pension plans have increased in recent years, but their unfunded liabilities have increased more, according to an analysis by the Society of Actuaries released Wednesday.https://www.soa.org/research-reports/2017/public-pension-indices/
[/quote][quote=no_such_reality]Was it distressed inventory clearing or credit freeing up that drove the market back up? Serious question and I’m not being argumentative.
I don’t think banks were hiding their inventory, I think they weren’t acting on their inventory. I also think their incompetence in dealing with distressed assets actually played to their eventual benefit as efficient processing of everything in their pipeline would, IMO, have much more greatly impacted the market.
The short sale we bought and others we bid on are all good examples. For our house, we were the 2nd round bidders after the first short sale fell through after nearly 6 months. Our bid then took another 6 months reach a deal and then close. Having meet the owners, they moved out of the house at the beginning of the first deal and quit making payments close to a year before the first deal to force the banks hand on the short sale.
Other short sales situations were similar were we talked with owners and they’d simple quit making payments and the banks basically ignored them.
Meanwhile, on an open house, I’d be standing in line to get in to see the property.
I even looked at some of the banks foreclosure listings, I couldn’t buy them. Literally, could not get anyone to talk to me about an individual listing. I was ready with 100% cash for the place, couldn’t get people to return a call.
So I agree, they were not hiding their stuff, they were just incompetent. Sadly, they were like a person trying to lose 5 lbs, they kept plugging away at the five pounds and slowly watched their weight crawl up to 400 lbs.
I still tend to think if that backlogged inefficient under performing assets would have been acted on in a more timely manner how much worse it would have made it.[/quote]
interesting antidote,… the left hand does not know what the right hand is doing as they say
what came to mind when I read you mentioned you were looking at various “inventory” and the “short sale” owners,… “simple quit making payments and the banks basically ignored them” AND “I even looked at some of the banks foreclosure listings, I couldn’t buy them,… I was ready with 100% cash for the place, couldn’t get people to return a call” points toward a mechanism like SPEs (that would account for so-called “shadow RE”) because its a type of legal entity that can hold title to a note w/ no ties to a bank
as reported in the WSJ
[quote]
Special-Purpose Entities Are Often A Clever Way to Raise Debt Levels…hidden behind the financial tables, special-purpose entities have recently become the subject of sharper scrutiny. Much of the Enron accounting issues revolved around special-purpose entities…
…Think of the SPE as a trust…To establish this trust, the company must sell the SPE an asset — any of the ones listed on its balance sheet will do…The SPE pays the company for the receivables with the money it collects from these new investors and the company gets to beef up the cash section of its balance sheet.
…With only one asset on its books, investors won’t be hard to find. Even better, they’re willing to accept a lower interest rate because it appears that the repayment of their loan is a pretty sure thing since the SPE has no other debt.
Assuming the parent company has not offered a guarantee on the loan (we’ll get to that shortly), the company no longer has connections to the SPE. And in turn, the SPE’s creditors now only have claim to the assets of the SPE…
…Well don’t forget about the company’s creditors. They aren’t all that thrilled with the fact that the company sold off one of its assets, especially if it did so at a loss. Now how are they going to get paid?
…anyone who spends a second looking at financial statements may be a little perturbed by this arrangement as well. In many instances, we’d like to see that debt reported on the company’s balance sheet. But as long as the company is not liable for the SPE’s debt, FASB allows the transaction to be reported off-balance sheet…
…SPEs have been around for years, stuffed away in some footnote…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1014329454674201960
[/quote]so if SPEs are like a “trust” in a footnote, this in my mind this would kinda explain how various wall st banks avoided being considered bankrupt back in 2007/2008 because various toxic assets (like “shadow RE”) was not on the banks official balance sheet, furthermore it could be the reason why you noted “banks basically ignored” various RE owners in default back then
recall anything about other past headline news specifically “mark to market accounting” ???
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marktomarket.asp
think about it, if a home (that was underwater) had its note held in SPEs it also kinda makes sense why as you stated “Meanwhile, on an open house, I’d be standing in line to get in to see the property” in other words I’d say what you observed is something akin to Schrödinger’s cat (which is a thought experiment from quantum mechanics that states a particle can exist in two states at the same time) or in this case how investment vehicles like “real estate” can be both owned and not owned by the bank at the same time
so if this hypothesis is true, this (again) makes me wonder about various forecasting models (like the recent one just mentioned in the news about the fed stress test)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-22/fed-stress-results-are-out-everyone-passes-third-year-row
yeah I know, including a “zerohedge” link isn’t considered by some users of this forum to be a credible source (but thought posting a link to that site might get a laugh)
https://piggington.com/ot_dontfeedthetrolls#comment-277695
anyway the only thing I know for sure is two axiom(s) that in general describe trends w/ in the economic system
# of greedy, dishonest dumbshit (market players)
>> # of honest, not so greedy smart ass (market players)AND
out flow of ca$h (to market players)
> in-flow of ca$h (to market players)OR in other words,… lots of unserviceable debt from stuff like pensions
taken together these trends point toward an “inevitable” SHTF event when a majority of people wake up and realize the scope of the problem and then no longer have confidence in the system
[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Thank you for citing my 18-month old comment and for your response. Quite useful.[/quote]
here are some more thoughts on the topic…
basically, it would be easy to come up with insults like “so your mammas a drug dealer?”
or push a bigger lie something like “so how’s the child porn business?”
but took me all of a second to decide it was pathetic course of action, so just kept things on point
[quote=PCinSD]
January 29, 2017Anything you post here is fair game. Beyond that, it’s off limits.
https://piggington.com/bg_mia#comment-275617
[/quote]another perhaps interesting quick “on topic” thought I actually never got around to expanding/posting on is the psychological investor observation about “greed”
[quote]
Greed Is Your Worst EnemyThere’s an old saying on Wall Street that “pigs get slaughtered.” This greed in investors causes them to hang on to winning positions too long, trying to get every last tick. This trait can be devastating to returns because the trader is always running the risk of getting whipsawed or blown out of a position.
Greed is not easy to overcome. That’s because within many of us there seems to be an instinct to always try to do better, to try to get just a little more. A trader should recognize this instinct if it is present, and develop trade plans based upon rational business decisions, not on what amounts to an emotional whim or potentially harmful instinct. (Keep reading about this in When Fear And Greed Take Over.)
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/02/110502.asp
[/quote]and that real “successful” traders have some common traits:
- interest/passion to play the market
- ability to do math because its all about understanding “risks”
- have a sense of history
- ability to control emotions and understand a lesson from lost bets, essentially “ADAPT” to the ever-changing environment
http://www.opalesque.tv/hedge-fund-videos/jack-schwager/1
so now I have a question that I’m curious about, how would you have responded if I posted some lame bullshit lie asking about being a drug addict, or being a drug dealer, or child porn purveyor???
[quote=flu]
Says someone with a drug problem…lol
…lol…
Stay off the drugs…
https://piggington.com/re_shadow_inventory#comment-277559
[/quote]
