Forum Replies Created
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[quote=ltsddd][quote=Coronita]China reopened nature trails. Anyone want to bet when we see a spike in re-infection? I’d say maybe a month or two…
Man, if that is a hiking trail with that sort of crowd, I’ll pass. No fun. Cant imagine something like Potato Chip being like that[/quote]
I would be more worried about the bridges not holding up than catching the corona virus. Darwinism works on so many different levels. SMH.[/quote]
[modest proposal sarcasm ON]
huh,… w/ so many talentless ass clowns in the world today
http://www.foxnews.com/lifestyle/woman-licked-toilet-coronavirus-challenge-dr-phil
perhaps the thing to do is let the virus do its thing (i.e. offer no medical intervention and let it take out “dead weight”)
http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/harvey-weinstein-positive-coronavirus
covid-19 making the world a better place?!
[modest proposal sarcasm OFF]
Endgame?!
PS food for thought,…
Two men are walking through a forest. Suddenly, they see a bear in the distance, running towards them. They turn and start running away. But then one of them stops, takes some running shoes from his bag, and starts putting the on.
“What are you doing?” says the other man.
“Do you think you will run fast than the bear with those?”
“I don’t have to run faster than the bear,” he says.
“I just have to run faster than you.”
[quote=spdrun]”The Hammer and the Dance”. The endgame isn’t “no” new cases, just lowering the number of infections so the hospitals can handle it and so that contacts of cases can be ID’ed…
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
Say r0 of this thing is 3, meaning that each “generation” of the virus multiplies cases by a factor of three. Reducing contact by a factor of 10, wearing masks, etc will likely reduce the “fertility” of the virus to about 0.3, meaning that the number of cases will shrink exponentially in a similar period that it took them to grow. Politicians ordering people around also need to remember that between incubation period, showing symptoms, and testing, there’s a lag time of several weeks. New cases and hospitalizations will take 2 weeks to a month to start showing real declines.
But decline they will, almost as quickly as they grew. New cases will be a bell-shaped curve, though TOTAL people in hospital will still go up, since many people stay in hospital for a few weeks.[/quote]
when the number of virus infections starts to decline, the next big challenge is keeping people confident there is hope
IOW people have to recognize it’s easier to destroy things, building stuff is much, much, much harder!!!
sad fact of the matter is, there are far too many no talent ass clowns who basically are Darwin Award candidates
http://www.foxnews.com/lifestyle/woman-licked-toilet-coronavirus-challenge-dr-phil
and don’t have a clue what real hardship or sacrifice is,…
having pointed out the inconvenient truth(s), when this clusterfuck is over actually think things will be much better because people will realize the difference between a “want” vs a “need” along w/ realizing the fact that the path we were on was unsustainable AND solutions only happen when there is corporation and acceptance of hard science (as is the case where people have to work together to find a vaccine)
ever consider that SoCal has the third world not too far away which has a “yuge” population that’s kinda akin to a people living in a “yuge” petri dish
then there is
[quote]
Cities With the Most Homelessness
Three of the top 5 cities are in California.New York City
Number of people experiencing homelessness: 78,676Los Angeles and Los Angeles County
Number of people experiencing homelessness: 49,955Seattle and King County, Washington
Number of people experiencing homelessness: 12,112San Diego and San Diego County, California
Number of people experiencing homelessness: 8,576San Jose, Santa Clara and Santa Clara County, California
Number of people experiencing homelessness: 7,254http://www.usnews.com/news/cities/slideshows/cities-with-the-most-homelessness-in-the-us
[/quote]since you mentioned the California “surplus” being wiped out,… we also might want to look at what is happening locally
[quote]
AUDIT: SAN DIEGO’S FISCAL HEALTHSan Diego is the most fiscally troubled city in San Diego County, according to the California State Auditor.
…That poor ranking appears to be driven by the city’s large amount of long term debt, more than $3.3 billion, and its failure to set aside adequate funding to meet the demands of its pension and other post-employment benefit obligations, according to the dashboard.
San Diego also received the worst rating when came to the amount it has set aside in its financial reserves, an issue the auditor specifically highlighted during her press conference.
“The city of San Diego really only has a couple of months of reserves set aside,” said Howle. “This should be a warning flag for city officials and the city of San Diego, that this is an area officials need to focus on.”
this issue is directly related to a front page story that appeared in the UT (where I noticed the UT watchdog missed a few key facts)
http://www.TinyURL.com/13thCheck
basically looking at the issue as an investor
http://www.TinyURL.com/InvestorWarning
we are facing the perfect $hit $torm,… with political leadership consisting of showboating idiots who pander to their own constituencies BUT basically have a history of having NO balls to deal w/ big problems AND shit for brains,… for example Todd Gloria who looks to become the next mayor of this city and the irony is if the idiot gets elected he is going to have to fix problem he basically created in the first place?!
http://www.TinyURL.com/ToddGloria
perhaps it’s possible to dodge the first wave bullet,… BUT given the various factors/trends in play, long term seems
[quote=The-Shoveler]California budget surplus likely to be wiped out.
I would say it is highly unlikely SoCal will see anything remotely like the CV numbers in NYC
[/quote]yup 99.999% certain the,… California budget surplus likely to be wiped out!!!
[quote=The-Shoveler]COVID-19: Updated data implies that UK modelling hugely overestimates the expected death rates from infection
This is the study that the CDC used to convince USA to shut down.
WRT “scientific” info published on the site,… wattsupwiththat.com
pretty much the site is known for being not too rigorous
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/watts-up-with-that/
basically that site is filled w/ characters that sell a message for a price,… for example
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/03/13/a-conversation-with-patrick-moore/
http://www.desmogblog.com/patrick-moore
Lobbyist (Patrick Moore)
Claims Monsanto’s Roundup Is Safe To Drink
Freaks Out When Offered A Glass
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovKw6YjqSfMif you’re interested in solid info from virologists w/ decades of experience discussing the issues listen to
TWiV (This Week in Virology) | A podcast about viruses
http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/bottom line in the real world when r0 (i.e. “r naught” which is the number of people that become infected),… is greater than one the disease will spread
said another way,… the higher the r0 the more contagious the covid-19 virus is (and FWIW the reason covid-19 spread so rapidly is because it looks like the r0 value is greater than three, which means one individual who catches the virus can in effect pass it along to three other people)
realistically until there is heard immunity or a vaccine developed, people will be at risk of contracting an illness,… which will have knock on effects that simple math models do not take into account (for example)
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-effects-of-covid-19-will-ripple-through-food-systems/
because it looks like the r0 value is “conservatively” greater than three,… the SoCal area will most likely be hit w/ high CV numbers just like in the NYC area,… looking at the medical data victims will be older AND/OR weaker (i.e. individuals with pre-existing medical conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, etc.)
http://www.TinyURL.com/PandemicTips
what those in the know fear is COVID-19 is going to hit in waves (similar to the 1918 pandemic)
http://www.pbs.org/video/american-experience-influenza-1918/
[quote=teaboy]
The original and continuing purpose of this thread is to share the most up-to-the-minute thoughtful & insightful articles regarding the Coronavirus Endgame.[/quote]have been sort of looking for that info my self,… but have not found anything I thought realistic,… lots of denial the pandemic exists AND/OR people think its fake news
http://www.wired.com/story/the-analogy-between-covid-19-and-climate-change-is-eerily-precise/
the grim honest truth is the covid-19 pandemic is going to be a Darwinian flush event in that takes out the older and weaker (in society)
there is an old adage “don’t judge a book by its cover” but looking at various news reports about what average people are doing to prepare (for example)
[quote]
‘Absolute chaos’: Grocery stores struggle to meet COVID-19 demandTim Gerwitz, of Buffalo, stocks up with eight rolls of toilet paper, a roll of paper towels and two bottle of Mountain Dew at Familly Dollar on Kenmore Avenue in Buffalo, Friday, March 13, 2020. (Sharon Cantillon/Buffalo News)
https://buffalonews.com/2020/03/13/absolute-chaos-stores-struggle-to-meet-covid-19-demand/
[/quote]personally 99.999% certain this isn’t going to end or get better anytime soon,… unlike POTUS the self described “Very Stable Genius!”
[quote]
Trump says nation can see “light at the end of the tunnel” as Washington pushes $6 trillion stimulusPresident Trump says the U.S. is beginning to see the “light at the end of the tunnel,” as the number of coronavirus cases in the country is doubling every two to three days. The president has been signaling impatience with the ongoing business closures and stock market volatility, and on Tuesday began suggesting he wants the country “back open by Easter” on April 12.
“There is tremendous hope as we look forward and we begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Stay focused and stay strong and my administration and myself will deliver for you as we have in the past,” the president said during a Coronavirus Task Force briefing at the White House late Tuesday.
[quote]
Exclusive: U.S. axed CDC expert job in China months before virus outbreakWASHINGTON (Reuters) – Several months before the coronavirus pandemic began, the Trump administration eliminated a key American public health position in Beijing intended to help detect disease outbreaks in China, Reuters has learned.
The American disease expert, a medical epidemiologist embedded in China’s disease control agency, left her post in July, according to four sources with knowledge of the issue. The first cases of the new coronavirus may have emerged as early as November, and as cases exploded, the Trump administration in February chastised China for censoring information about the outbreak and keeping U.S. experts from entering the country to help.
“It was heartbreaking to watch,” said Bao-Ping Zhu, a Chinese American who served in that role, which was funded by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, between 2007 and 2011. “If someone had been there, public health officials and governments across the world could have moved much faster.”
Zhu and the other sources said the American expert, Dr. Linda Quick, was a trainer of Chinese field epidemiologists who were deployed to the epicenter of outbreaks to help track, investigate and contain diseases.
As an American CDC employee, they said, Quick was in an ideal position to be the eyes and ears on the ground for the United States and other countries on the coronavirus outbreak, and might have alerted them to the growing threat weeks earlier.
No other foreign disease experts were embedded to lead the program after Quick left in July, according to the sources. Zhu said an embedded expert can often get word of outbreaks early, after forming close relationships with Chinese counterparts.
[quote]
Chaos, inconsistency mark launch of drive-thru virus testing…Patients have complained that they had to jump through cumbersome bureaucratic hoops and wait days to get tested, then wait even longer for a result. Testing centers opened in some places only to be shut down shortly afterward because of shortages of supplies and staff.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/chaos-inconsistency-mark-launch-drive-virus-testing-69734680
[/quote][quote]
Hospitals consider universal do-not-resuscitate orders for coronavirus patientsHospitals on the front lines of the pandemic are engaged in a heated private debate over a calculation few have encountered in their lifetimes — how to weigh the “save at all costs” approach to resuscitating a dying patient against the real danger of exposing doctors and nurses to the contagion of coronavirus.
The conversations are driven by the realization that the risk to staff amid dwindling stores of protective equipment — such as masks, gowns and gloves — may be too great to justify the conventional response when a patient “codes,” and their heart or breathing stops.
…The new protocols are part of a larger rationing of lifesaving procedures and equipment — including ventilators — that is quickly becoming a reality here as in other parts of the world battling the virus. The concerns are not just about health-care workers getting sick but also about them potentially carrying the virus to other patients in the hospital.
R. Alta Charo, a University of Wisconsin-Madison bioethicist, said that while the idea of withholding treatments may be unsettling, especially in a country as wealthy as ours, it is pragmatic. “It doesn’t help anybody if our doctors and nurses are felled by this virus and not able to care for us,” she said. “The code process is one that puts them at an enhanced risk.”
Wunderink said all of the most critically ill patients in the 12 days since they had their first coronavirus case have experienced steady declines rather than a sudden crash. That allowed medical staff to talk with families about the risk to workers and how having to put on protective gear delays a response and decreases the chance of saving someone’s life.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/25/coronavirus-patients-do-not-resucitate/
[/quote]bottom line,… the only way things start to improve is when everyone stops doing stupid things like flushing disinfection wipes down toilets AND people wake up to the fact that simple basic hygiene using soap and water to wash hands and surfaces is a way to slow down virus transmission
[quote=teaboy]I invite other Piggs to share links to their most thoughtful or thought provoking articles on the medium/long term outlook or “Coronavirus Endgame” over the next days/weeks?
[/quote]looking at the events reported in the news,…
[quote]
Americans Coping With the Coronavirus Are Clogging ToiletsSewage systems and toilets are backing up as consumers clean their homes with disinfectant wipes and turn to paper towels, napkins and baby wipes to cope with the lack of toilet paper.
http://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/us/flushable-wipes-clog.html
[/quote]the end game for many does not look good since common sense, critical thinking and “calm” courage to face the harsh reality seems to be missing
PS if this was a baseball game,… I’d guess we are at the start of the 3rd inning
1st,… china “gets hit”
2nd,… iran, italy “gets hit”
3rd,… USA “gets hit”[quote=Coronita]There’s no shortage of toilet paper. You can order online from Costco and have it delivered for just a few bucks extra via instacart.
The major shortages are still.
Disinfectant wipes, sprays, and rubbing alcohol that people stockpiled and use as a disinfectant spray.
[/quote]actually seems there is no shortage of idiots
then there is the governors wife
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/California-governor-s-wife-says-she-s-running-out-15141784.php
which is why I felt compelled to try and point out the fact that there are serious unintended consequences that sadly too few think about
speaking of which WRT alcohol that people stockpiled,…
have family that are MDs and they have pointed out that repeated skin exposure to alcohol will dry out the skin and that dry/damaged skin actually will have more nooks and crannies where dirt/virus can hide
that is why the suggestion is to wash hands is the best way to prevent a vector transmission,…
people just don’t think critically or bother looking into the science
do surgeons dip their hands into vats of alcohol??? hell no they don’t,… they scrub up as they say,… this is because there is mechanical action to remove grime, then there is the hydrophobic lipid nature of the virus
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3179339/
heard an interesting discussion of virologists mentioning that they find it kind funny/sad that seems anti-vax moment actually caused lots of problems and sort explains why we’re kinda up shit creek now (in that people don’t trust science or modern medicine, saying there is a conspiracy, blah, blah, blah)
http://www.medpagetoday.com/nursing/nursing/83376
perhaps those that supported the anti-vax moment should be last in line or even denied to get a vaccine for covid-19 when its developed?!
http://www.sciencealert.com/most-of-the-antivax-ads-on-facebook-are-funded-by-just-two-organisations
[quote]
… Nick Anderson posted this cartoon about the doubters and gullible swallowers of propaganda on-line and it took scant moments for someone to comment, “You’re going to need a bigger boat.”
http://www.dailycartoonist.com/index.php/2020/03/14/csotd-home-thoughts-from-home/
[/quote][quote=zk][quote=Hobie]Closing schools and cancelling school sports, performances, and other activities in light of no students currently infected seems a bit overkill. IMHO
[/quote]
Experts would disagree:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/science/coronavirus-curve-mitigation-infection.html
If we don’t flatten the curve, this could be the result:
Stanford, Cornell, etc. are big brain collections (i.e. profs who over the years collected various types of knowledge),… so given corona seems to kill off those older w/ health complications, personally think it is prudent to protect profs with important scientific knowledge
actually while driving around heard on KPBS about the effects on corona on the local economy AND the topic of comic-con was brought up,… which got me thinking about a specific Star Trek episode that seems eerily relevant
http://www.startrek.com/database_article/miri-episode
anyway just dropped in to see piggs reaction to current events,… ALSO thought it an opportune time to remind others of the big picture and knowing that washing of hands is a very important step to prevent the spreading of disease
came to this realization yesterday when I went to CVS to pick up some 70% Isopropyl Alcohol (IPA) and the shelves were wiped out,… then noticed on the way out a pretty wasteful use of the stuff as some woman was basically pouring a bunch all over her hands
basically have some knowledge that others might find useful,… like for example there are several grades of IPA that have different uses (like cleaning electrical equipment or as a disinfectant), so created a PDF on google docs of info that people should know about what works best
http://www.TinyURL.com/PandemicTips
also have several family members who have experience w/ IDs (Infectious Diseases) as MDs,… so long ago as a kid was taught how surgeons scrub before an operation,… also was taught long ago along the fact that far too often people ignore the basic idea of healthy habits like a good sleep and eating a good diet actually makes people more resistant to disease,… AND turns out back in WWII the USN taught pilots a trick to get much needed rest
have a look at the PDF I placed on google docs, think people will find in interesting
