[peterb]

If you’re a net debtor, you hate deflation. Paying back a debt with more costly money makes paying it back more difficult and it takes more of your resources to do so, at a time when you’re probably collecting less revenue as well…think state and local govt. The govt is the biggest debtor. They dont want deflation. But it remains to be seen whether or not they will get their wish. Savers and holders of money benefit the most from deflation.

I think a very likely scenario will be that all these unemployed people will probably be less likely to pay their car loans, credit card loans, student loans and mortgages,etc.. as they remain unemployed. This will fuel another wave of defaults. And we’re back on the deflation cycle once more.
I think it’s a very important thing to consider where employment will be growing to fuel an economic recovery. Next month over 100K college grads will be looking for work as well as the all the unemployed we’ve been racking up for the last 6 months…and continue to add to the ranks.

[peterb]

If you’re a net debtor, you hate deflation. Paying back a debt with more costly money makes paying it back more difficult and it takes more of your resources to do so, at a time when you’re probably collecting less revenue as well…think state and local govt. The govt is the biggest debtor. They dont want deflation. But it remains to be seen whether or not they will get their wish. Savers and holders of money benefit the most from deflation.

I think a very likely scenario will be that all these unemployed people will probably be less likely to pay their car loans, credit card loans, student loans and mortgages,etc.. as they remain unemployed. This will fuel another wave of defaults. And we’re back on the deflation cycle once more.
I think it’s a very important thing to consider where employment will be growing to fuel an economic recovery. Next month over 100K college grads will be looking for work as well as the all the unemployed we’ve been racking up for the last 6 months…and continue to add to the ranks.

[peterb]

If you’re a net debtor, you hate deflation. Paying back a debt with more costly money makes paying it back more difficult and it takes more of your resources to do so, at a time when you’re probably collecting less revenue as well…think state and local govt. The govt is the biggest debtor. They dont want deflation. But it remains to be seen whether or not they will get their wish. Savers and holders of money benefit the most from deflation.

I think a very likely scenario will be that all these unemployed people will probably be less likely to pay their car loans, credit card loans, student loans and mortgages,etc.. as they remain unemployed. This will fuel another wave of defaults. And we’re back on the deflation cycle once more.
I think it’s a very important thing to consider where employment will be growing to fuel an economic recovery. Next month over 100K college grads will be looking for work as well as the all the unemployed we’ve been racking up for the last 6 months…and continue to add to the ranks.

[peterb]

If you’re a net debtor, you hate deflation. Paying back a debt with more costly money makes paying it back more difficult and it takes more of your resources to do so, at a time when you’re probably collecting less revenue as well…think state and local govt. The govt is the biggest debtor. They dont want deflation. But it remains to be seen whether or not they will get their wish. Savers and holders of money benefit the most from deflation.

I think a very likely scenario will be that all these unemployed people will probably be less likely to pay their car loans, credit card loans, student loans and mortgages,etc.. as they remain unemployed. This will fuel another wave of defaults. And we’re back on the deflation cycle once more.
I think it’s a very important thing to consider where employment will be growing to fuel an economic recovery. Next month over 100K college grads will be looking for work as well as the all the unemployed we’ve been racking up for the last 6 months…and continue to add to the ranks.

[peterb]

This is why deflation is such a slow grind, as in Japans case. Everyone fights death. With every tool available. Even survival is not growth. Unemployment and downward wage pressure will continue despite the banks reluctance/inability to efficiently clear their non-performing assets. This is a precarious position. When you’re walking on a tight rope, all you can hope for is to not fall off.

[peterb]

This is why deflation is such a slow grind, as in Japans case. Everyone fights death. With every tool available. Even survival is not growth. Unemployment and downward wage pressure will continue despite the banks reluctance/inability to efficiently clear their non-performing assets. This is a precarious position. When you’re walking on a tight rope, all you can hope for is to not fall off.

[peterb]

This is why deflation is such a slow grind, as in Japans case. Everyone fights death. With every tool available. Even survival is not growth. Unemployment and downward wage pressure will continue despite the banks reluctance/inability to efficiently clear their non-performing assets. This is a precarious position. When you’re walking on a tight rope, all you can hope for is to not fall off.

[peterb]

This is why deflation is such a slow grind, as in Japans case. Everyone fights death. With every tool available. Even survival is not growth. Unemployment and downward wage pressure will continue despite the banks reluctance/inability to efficiently clear their non-performing assets. This is a precarious position. When you’re walking on a tight rope, all you can hope for is to not fall off.

[peterb]

This is why deflation is such a slow grind, as in Japans case. Everyone fights death. With every tool available. Even survival is not growth. Unemployment and downward wage pressure will continue despite the banks reluctance/inability to efficiently clear their non-performing assets. This is a precarious position. When you’re walking on a tight rope, all you can hope for is to not fall off.

[peterb]

I’ve followed Norris for about 12 years and he’s been fairly accurate. But not perfect. He called the bottom in 1996, but said we’d top in 2005. Close enough, I think. But saying to “buy and hold” and that prices will drop, in the same week sounds contradictory to me as well. He claims that he keeps some of the “winner” properties and flips that rest. I’ve analyzed his work very closely and he’s no genius, but I think he’s honest.

[peterb]

I’ve followed Norris for about 12 years and he’s been fairly accurate. But not perfect. He called the bottom in 1996, but said we’d top in 2005. Close enough, I think. But saying to “buy and hold” and that prices will drop, in the same week sounds contradictory to me as well. He claims that he keeps some of the “winner” properties and flips that rest. I’ve analyzed his work very closely and he’s no genius, but I think he’s honest.

[peterb]

I’ve followed Norris for about 12 years and he’s been fairly accurate. But not perfect. He called the bottom in 1996, but said we’d top in 2005. Close enough, I think. But saying to “buy and hold” and that prices will drop, in the same week sounds contradictory to me as well. He claims that he keeps some of the “winner” properties and flips that rest. I’ve analyzed his work very closely and he’s no genius, but I think he’s honest.

[peterb]

I’ve followed Norris for about 12 years and he’s been fairly accurate. But not perfect. He called the bottom in 1996, but said we’d top in 2005. Close enough, I think. But saying to “buy and hold” and that prices will drop, in the same week sounds contradictory to me as well. He claims that he keeps some of the “winner” properties and flips that rest. I’ve analyzed his work very closely and he’s no genius, but I think he’s honest.

[peterb]

I’ve followed Norris for about 12 years and he’s been fairly accurate. But not perfect. He called the bottom in 1996, but said we’d top in 2005. Close enough, I think. But saying to “buy and hold” and that prices will drop, in the same week sounds contradictory to me as well. He claims that he keeps some of the “winner” properties and flips that rest. I’ve analyzed his work very closely and he’s no genius, but I think he’s honest.

[peterb]

Once again, I find myself in agreement with Arraya.
I dont think the fundamentals have ever been this bad. I cannot see anything even remotely positive in the near or longer term. Right now the markets are rejoycing that the bad news is not as bad as predicted. That’s good? Sorry, it isnt good. If that’s a std for performance, things will never be bad until you die. Maybe not even then.

RE is like an aircraft carrier, it takes a long time to change direction and has a lot of momentum once it gets going.

[Author]

Posts