Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
September 27, 2008 at 8:35 PM in reply to: Roubini on the current economic situation, with predictions #276734September 27, 2008 at 8:35 PM in reply to: Roubini on the current economic situation, with predictions #276752
peterb
ParticipantI have been researching this issue quite a bit lately. The last 3 recession have seen gold go down in price for the duration of the recession. 1972, 1980 and 1990. So Roubini has recent history on his side for this call.
However, economic historians with strong forecasting skills like Bob Hoye and Marc Faber say that gold increases in price after a large credit bust like what we’re having right now. (This is a far more rare event than the more typical recessions we’ve seen in the past 30 years.) Both the ElliotWave and Candle Stick charts are extremely bullish for gold right now as well.I’ve put my bet on the historians for this one, eventhough I agree that Roubini has been pretty good lately as well. It looks like gold’s a good bet in a 5 year time frame regardless, but it’s always nice to time these things closer to the mark than not.
September 27, 2008 at 8:35 PM in reply to: Roubini on the current economic situation, with predictions #276786ParticipantI have been researching this issue quite a bit lately. The last 3 recession have seen gold go down in price for the duration of the recession. 1972, 1980 and 1990. So Roubini has recent history on his side for this call.
However, economic historians with strong forecasting skills like Bob Hoye and Marc Faber say that gold increases in price after a large credit bust like what we’re having right now. (This is a far more rare event than the more typical recessions we’ve seen in the past 30 years.) Both the ElliotWave and Candle Stick charts are extremely bullish for gold right now as well.I’ve put my bet on the historians for this one, eventhough I agree that Roubini has been pretty good lately as well. It looks like gold’s a good bet in a 5 year time frame regardless, but it’s always nice to time these things closer to the mark than not.
September 27, 2008 at 8:35 PM in reply to: Roubini on the current economic situation, with predictions #276800ParticipantI have been researching this issue quite a bit lately. The last 3 recession have seen gold go down in price for the duration of the recession. 1972, 1980 and 1990. So Roubini has recent history on his side for this call.
However, economic historians with strong forecasting skills like Bob Hoye and Marc Faber say that gold increases in price after a large credit bust like what we’re having right now. (This is a far more rare event than the more typical recessions we’ve seen in the past 30 years.) Both the ElliotWave and Candle Stick charts are extremely bullish for gold right now as well.I’ve put my bet on the historians for this one, eventhough I agree that Roubini has been pretty good lately as well. It looks like gold’s a good bet in a 5 year time frame regardless, but it’s always nice to time these things closer to the mark than not.
ParticipantNot only did we get way off topic, but I think we scared any female piggs off the site.
ParticipantNot only did we get way off topic, but I think we scared any female piggs off the site.
ParticipantNot only did we get way off topic, but I think we scared any female piggs off the site.
ParticipantNot only did we get way off topic, but I think we scared any female piggs off the site.
ParticipantNot only did we get way off topic, but I think we scared any female piggs off the site.
September 26, 2008 at 9:50 PM in reply to: What would be decline price in San Diego with in 6 months? #276247ParticipantJP Morgan, now there’s a company that knows what it’s doing!!
I agree with ex, we’re headed way down from here. 2009 is going to be horrific for the RE market.September 26, 2008 at 9:50 PM in reply to: What would be decline price in San Diego with in 6 months? #276499ParticipantJP Morgan, now there’s a company that knows what it’s doing!!
I agree with ex, we’re headed way down from here. 2009 is going to be horrific for the RE market.September 26, 2008 at 9:50 PM in reply to: What would be decline price in San Diego with in 6 months? #276515ParticipantJP Morgan, now there’s a company that knows what it’s doing!!
I agree with ex, we’re headed way down from here. 2009 is going to be horrific for the RE market.September 26, 2008 at 9:50 PM in reply to: What would be decline price in San Diego with in 6 months? #276551ParticipantJP Morgan, now there’s a company that knows what it’s doing!!
I agree with ex, we’re headed way down from here. 2009 is going to be horrific for the RE market.September 26, 2008 at 9:50 PM in reply to: What would be decline price in San Diego with in 6 months? #276567ParticipantJP Morgan, now there’s a company that knows what it’s doing!!
I agree with ex, we’re headed way down from here. 2009 is going to be horrific for the RE market.ParticipantThese are all rationalizations for buying an asset that is depreciating. It would at least be a lower risk decision if the purchase were not heavily leveraged.
Why buy now? What’s the hurry to take such a risk? RE doesnt all of the sudden shoot up on good news like the stock market. Wait for unemployment to stop rising and foreclosures to stop dominating the market. At least those would be bullish indicators for the RE market to stabilize. Time is your friend here, not the enemy.We’re in uncharted territory for this economy. Huge bank failures, recession and growing unemployment. And now it looks as though the whole world is headed into a recession as well.
I would advice anyone considering buying a highly leveraged, depreciating asset in this environment to be extremely careful….unless you have lots of availble cash to fall back on should things get considerably worse.
-
AuthorPosts
