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PerryChase
ParticipantWanting to win is one thing. Everyone wants to win.
Yes, America’s military is the best and we can win on the battlefield. But we cannot keep the peace because of there are just too many insurgents. We’d be taking over one city to loose it again later. General Shinseki was right, you need 500,000 troops (and a return of the draft) in Iraq to win.
I don’t believe that the sacrifices that we’d have to make as a nation are worth a win in Iraq. Invading Iraq was an ill-conceived naive neo-con idea. The French knew it and they tried to warn America. A parallel to Iraq is Algeria that caused the fall of 6 French governments. Ségolène Royal said (I paraphrase) that good friends warn each other when one is about to commit a big mistake. That’s the sign of true friendship. (Would you’ve let a “real” friend buy a house in 2004/2005?)
Below is a link to a WP review of Alistair Horne’s book on French Algeria.
Washington Post book review. A Savage War of PeaceLink to Marine Colonel article
WP – The Way to Win Guerilla WarParticipantI’ve been watching Liberty Station also. That area is convenient and centrally located. But those houses were overpriced to begin with. There’s still quite a bid of land to be developed there. It’s going to be a hardlanding for many would bought from the developer.
Participantbgates, I’ve been busy at work and installing some built in shelves at home. It’s a lot of work if you want to do the shelving right.
Looks like the news out of Iraq an Afghanistan aren’t all that good this week. I wonder when the Malaki government will fall.
ParticipantIn another thread there was a house purchased for $1.17M going into default.
I think that 90% of the zero-down ARM buyers who gambled/speculated on being able to sell at a profit to default. My anecdotal evidence is this was very prevalent in 2003-2005.
People will refinance to try to delay the day of reckoning, until they can’t refinance anymore.
ParticipantList Price: $799,000 – $925,000. Looks like he’s employing a technique a friend of mine is using — has a low price range but will only accept in the middle to high price range.
My friend has been trying to sell his house for the last 3 months +. He rejected an offer and now he’s lowered his price down to the offer he rejected. Chasing the market down. I have to bite my tongue and not offer real estate advice (we’re not close friends).
ParticipantI agree with powayseller. I beleive that those ARMs will have very high default rates but that won’t necessarily be reflected in the stats. People will refinance several times before defaulting. But if you find a way to track buyers who “speculated” on their houses during the runup, you’ll see sky high default rates.
Participantjg, yes, you are over-reacting. Mexico is safe if you don’t draw attention to yourself. I traveled to Mexico City earlier this year by myself. The people were very nice and friendly. I got to see the pyramids at Teotihuacan. Even some Mexicans in USA say that Mexico City is not safe. I had no problems.
I also traveled to other parts of Mexico before and I don’t find it to be anymore dangerous than America. Like anywhere, you have to be a little careful. Remember you live in La Jolla, a nice suburb of San Dieogo. Foreign tourists who come to America would visit Manhattan, downtown LA, Chicago, Miami, etc… Those places are not necessary that safe for travelers either.
ParticipantAnd here’s what Bernanke said. He’s trying to get an optimistic message out.
I think the general economy will get by, but the housing market will continue to drop continue to hurt in 2007.
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The New York Times
November 28, 2006
Fed Chief Sees Economy Gaining Strength in 2007
By JEREMY W. PETERSBen S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, said today that the economy is slowing in line with the central bank’s forecast and predicted that growth will return to stronger levels in 2007. But he reiterated concerns that inflation remains “uncomfortably high.”
Speaking at a luncheon in Manhattan, Mr. Bernanke said the drag on the economy from the housing and automobile industries should ease next year, allowing growth to pick up again.
“Overall, the economy is likely to expand at a moderate pace going forward,” he said. “A reasonable projection is that economic growth will be modestly below trend in the near term but that, over the course of the coming year, it will return to a rate that is roughly in line with the growth rate of the economy’s underlying productive capacity.”
He cautioned, however, that the housing correction could still “turn out to be more severe and widespread” than it now appears.
“A deeper correction would directly affect economic activity,” he said.
Indeed, home prices continued to slide in October as the supply of unsold homes grew, new statistics showed today, in the latest data to suggest that the once-booming housing market is continuing to deflate.
The fall in the median price of a previously owned home — down 3.5 percent from a year earlier, to $221,000 — was the sharpest on record.
Falling prices helped provide a slight lift in the volume of sales for the month, which was 0.5 percent higher than in September. But compared with a year ago, sales of previously owned homes remain down by double-digit percentages, the National Association of Realtors said.
The housing data reinforced the message from other economic indicators released today, that the economy is slowing down. But on Wall Street, where traders were still digesting yesterday’s jarring sell-off, trading was mixed.
A widely watched gauge of consumer confidence reported an unexpected decline for November today. And the Commerce Department reported that businesses reined in spending on major purchases last month, a sign that corporate America, too, is starting to pull back.
Orders for durable goods, which include everything from jet engines to computers to refrigerators, declined in October by 8.3 percent, or $19 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, from the month before. The figure stood in sharp contrast to the rise of 8.7 percent posted in September.
The biggest drop in the latest month was in purchases of transportation equipment, specifically civilian aircraft, which contracted by an annualized $10.6 billion. But the slide was also steep for orders of non-defense equipment other than aircraft.
The overall drop in durable goods orders — the biggest in more than six years — was larger than economists had forecast, and it suggested that businesses are beginning to feel and respond to slower economic growth.
“This perhaps suggests that the U.S. economic slowdown is spreading to the corporate sector, adding to worries about the prospects for U.S. growth,” James Knightley, an economist with ING Financial Markets, wrote today in a research note to clients.
The durable-goods statistics accelerated the dollar’s decline against the euro, the British pound and other foreign currencies today. Since late last week, when the euro exceeded $1.30 for the first time in a year and a half, the dollar has fallen broadly in global currency markets.
The dollar retraced some of those losses this morning, as investors reacted to the unexpected uptick in the volume of home sales. The stock market, too, bounced back after the housing report was released. On Monday, stocks suffered their biggest decline since July after a weak November sales forecast from Wal-Mart cast doubt over the prospects for the holiday shopping season.
Indeed, the Conference Board’s index of consumer sentiment dropped in November as Americans appeared to grow increasingly pessimistic about the job market. The Conference Board said today that the index declined to 102.9, from 105.1 in October.
ParticipantFor those who love history, not that long ago, Christendom had arranged marriages of minors (under 18).
As a society, we’d be better off if we openly discuss rather than hide our fears and desires. I believe that Scandinavian countries have the right formula.
ParticipantOpps, sorry for the typos. It was late at night and I forgot to proof.
I posted this link because I admire Bill Gates, not because he’s rich, but because of the charity work that he’s doing in the developing word. His work to improve education in poor American communities is also wonderful.
I agree with his views and I found the interview very interesting.
As for waning American power, I believe the point was that America needs not fear the economic and political rise of other countries. We can find ways to work together for the benefit of all.
I’m not looking forward to diminised US power. But I think that we should work cooperatively with others rather than try to impose our will. It’s not a good idea to make enemies unless we are prepared to eternally watch our backs.
Times have changed. It used to be that industries in advanced countries had 50-year comparative advantages over competitors in developing nations. But now, transfer of technology, knowledge and financial assets and can happen almost overnight.
I’ve been to China and Northern Thailand. Bill Gates is right, Capitalism in China is extremely dynamic and there is a sense of urgency there. And Northern Thailand is definitely one of the best places to live on $1 per day.
ParticipantI went to Target to buy 800 count bed sheets for $20 per sheet. I also bought 2 hard-drives from Staples.
Felt busier that normal days but not a mad-house.
I’m sure that sales are up this year because of Xbox, Sony PS3, and flat screen televisions. Looks like pre-lit Christmas trees are a big thing driving sales this year.
Did anyone notice that gas prices are slowly creeping up after the elections? A coincidence?
ParticipantYou’ve been waiting since 2004 and we are now back to 2004 prices. You should wait more. If you buy now, then your fence-sitting would’ve been in vain.
Think 2000 prices.
ParticipantI would never defend the lavish spending of non-profits. However, non-profits have to file tax returns and justify their status.
Churches don’t have that requirement so that their spending is completely under the radar. (someone please correct me if I’m wrong).
Churches also do not pay property taxes. I’m not sure if other types of non-profits have to pay property taxes. Do churches have to pay sales/use tax? I know that when I buy something at the Salvation Army thrift store, the purchase is not taxable.
I hope that someone who has knowledge of tax laws related to churches and non-profit would elucidate us.
ParticipantNothing wrong with religious groups so long as they do charity. I always donate my unwanted stuff and cars to the Salvation Army. They pickup promptly.
Nothing wrong with living a pious life either.
But it’s not OK for religious people to barge in and run people’s lives. Live and let live.
Giving to a church is not necessarily giving to charity in my view. Anyone care to build that next mega-church?
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