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pepsiParticipant
I wrote my own program and, to my surprise, 66% is the right answer. ( I thought it was 50% chance)
Then I reviewed my own program and I finanlly understand why 66% is the right answer.
The reason is at the door the host opened.
In 2/3 of chance, the door he opened is not a random pick.
In your first guess, you have 2/3 chance to guess wrong, so the door number the host must opened is limited to a certain door. (He can not opened the other door).By doing the switch, you are saying: “the first door I chose is wrong”, which is 2/3 of chance.
And that is why you must switch !
pepsiParticipantI wrote my own program and, to my surprise, 66% is the right answer. ( I thought it was 50% chance)
Then I reviewed my own program and I finanlly understand why 66% is the right answer.
The reason is at the door the host opened.
In 2/3 of chance, the door he opened is not a random pick.
In your first guess, you have 2/3 chance to guess wrong, so the door number the host must opened is limited to a certain door. (He can not opened the other door).By doing the switch, you are saying: “the first door I chose is wrong”, which is 2/3 of chance.
And that is why you must switch !
pepsiParticipantI wrote my own program and, to my surprise, 66% is the right answer. ( I thought it was 50% chance)
Then I reviewed my own program and I finanlly understand why 66% is the right answer.
The reason is at the door the host opened.
In 2/3 of chance, the door he opened is not a random pick.
In your first guess, you have 2/3 chance to guess wrong, so the door number the host must opened is limited to a certain door. (He can not opened the other door).By doing the switch, you are saying: “the first door I chose is wrong”, which is 2/3 of chance.
And that is why you must switch !
pepsiParticipantI wrote my own program and, to my surprise, 66% is the right answer. ( I thought it was 50% chance)
Then I reviewed my own program and I finanlly understand why 66% is the right answer.
The reason is at the door the host opened.
In 2/3 of chance, the door he opened is not a random pick.
In your first guess, you have 2/3 chance to guess wrong, so the door number the host must opened is limited to a certain door. (He can not opened the other door).By doing the switch, you are saying: “the first door I chose is wrong”, which is 2/3 of chance.
And that is why you must switch !
July 9, 2008 at 3:18 PM in reply to: Any news about Carmel Valley Saratoga/ Derby Hills “Holding Value”? #236225pepsiParticipantThese people can afford CV, not because of QC salary, but because of previous saving accumulated in their Bay area job or stock options.
All I am saying is that you can not afford CV house merely relying on your QC salary alone, even both husband and wife got low 6-figure in QC.
July 9, 2008 at 3:18 PM in reply to: Any news about Carmel Valley Saratoga/ Derby Hills “Holding Value”? #236353pepsiParticipantThese people can afford CV, not because of QC salary, but because of previous saving accumulated in their Bay area job or stock options.
All I am saying is that you can not afford CV house merely relying on your QC salary alone, even both husband and wife got low 6-figure in QC.
July 9, 2008 at 3:18 PM in reply to: Any news about Carmel Valley Saratoga/ Derby Hills “Holding Value”? #236361pepsiParticipantThese people can afford CV, not because of QC salary, but because of previous saving accumulated in their Bay area job or stock options.
All I am saying is that you can not afford CV house merely relying on your QC salary alone, even both husband and wife got low 6-figure in QC.
July 9, 2008 at 3:18 PM in reply to: Any news about Carmel Valley Saratoga/ Derby Hills “Holding Value”? #236408pepsiParticipantThese people can afford CV, not because of QC salary, but because of previous saving accumulated in their Bay area job or stock options.
All I am saying is that you can not afford CV house merely relying on your QC salary alone, even both husband and wife got low 6-figure in QC.
July 9, 2008 at 3:18 PM in reply to: Any news about Carmel Valley Saratoga/ Derby Hills “Holding Value”? #236420pepsiParticipantThese people can afford CV, not because of QC salary, but because of previous saving accumulated in their Bay area job or stock options.
All I am saying is that you can not afford CV house merely relying on your QC salary alone, even both husband and wife got low 6-figure in QC.
July 9, 2008 at 2:33 PM in reply to: Any news about Carmel Valley Saratoga/ Derby Hills “Holding Value”? #236170pepsiParticipantThe people that buy in CV are not the people employed by QC in the last 7 or 8 years.
You need to get into QC before 98 to be able to afford CV, and there are not that many of them that have not owned a house in prime locations (Del Mar, Solana beach, LJ…etc).
Even with 2 low six figure incomes, if you have kids going to schools, 1M+ house in CV is not affordable.July 9, 2008 at 2:33 PM in reply to: Any news about Carmel Valley Saratoga/ Derby Hills “Holding Value”? #236297pepsiParticipantThe people that buy in CV are not the people employed by QC in the last 7 or 8 years.
You need to get into QC before 98 to be able to afford CV, and there are not that many of them that have not owned a house in prime locations (Del Mar, Solana beach, LJ…etc).
Even with 2 low six figure incomes, if you have kids going to schools, 1M+ house in CV is not affordable.July 9, 2008 at 2:33 PM in reply to: Any news about Carmel Valley Saratoga/ Derby Hills “Holding Value”? #236306pepsiParticipantThe people that buy in CV are not the people employed by QC in the last 7 or 8 years.
You need to get into QC before 98 to be able to afford CV, and there are not that many of them that have not owned a house in prime locations (Del Mar, Solana beach, LJ…etc).
Even with 2 low six figure incomes, if you have kids going to schools, 1M+ house in CV is not affordable.July 9, 2008 at 2:33 PM in reply to: Any news about Carmel Valley Saratoga/ Derby Hills “Holding Value”? #236352pepsiParticipantThe people that buy in CV are not the people employed by QC in the last 7 or 8 years.
You need to get into QC before 98 to be able to afford CV, and there are not that many of them that have not owned a house in prime locations (Del Mar, Solana beach, LJ…etc).
Even with 2 low six figure incomes, if you have kids going to schools, 1M+ house in CV is not affordable.July 9, 2008 at 2:33 PM in reply to: Any news about Carmel Valley Saratoga/ Derby Hills “Holding Value”? #236365pepsiParticipantThe people that buy in CV are not the people employed by QC in the last 7 or 8 years.
You need to get into QC before 98 to be able to afford CV, and there are not that many of them that have not owned a house in prime locations (Del Mar, Solana beach, LJ…etc).
Even with 2 low six figure incomes, if you have kids going to schools, 1M+ house in CV is not affordable. -
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