[pemeliza]

Prices dipped after 9/11. There were some good deals for about 6 months after. So I would say it is an early 2001 price or even late 2000 price.

As far as the acre lots, some of that was sales hype but the benefit is that the views are protected. Usually the sloped areas are made common areas but in this case they were included in the building lots.

I remember when Pacific Crest and the neighboring Centex development Crestview were built. Top of the line view neighborhoods with 200k landscapes the norm. Big money, exclusive, and extremely low density. It is shocking to see these type of houses firmly under 1.4M. This can’t be good for the Bay Collection and Encinitas Ranch. Some of those houses sold for 2M from the builder and they are not near this prestige level.

Another factor to consider is the mello roos. While ER has 4k+ a year these houses in Pacific Crest have only $800 a year. Crestview has none. Big time bargains here IMHO.

[pemeliza]

Prices dipped after 9/11. There were some good deals for about 6 months after. So I would say it is an early 2001 price or even late 2000 price.

As far as the acre lots, some of that was sales hype but the benefit is that the views are protected. Usually the sloped areas are made common areas but in this case they were included in the building lots.

I remember when Pacific Crest and the neighboring Centex development Crestview were built. Top of the line view neighborhoods with 200k landscapes the norm. Big money, exclusive, and extremely low density. It is shocking to see these type of houses firmly under 1.4M. This can’t be good for the Bay Collection and Encinitas Ranch. Some of those houses sold for 2M from the builder and they are not near this prestige level.

Another factor to consider is the mello roos. While ER has 4k+ a year these houses in Pacific Crest have only $800 a year. Crestview has none. Big time bargains here IMHO.

[pemeliza]

Prices dipped after 9/11. There were some good deals for about 6 months after. So I would say it is an early 2001 price or even late 2000 price.

As far as the acre lots, some of that was sales hype but the benefit is that the views are protected. Usually the sloped areas are made common areas but in this case they were included in the building lots.

I remember when Pacific Crest and the neighboring Centex development Crestview were built. Top of the line view neighborhoods with 200k landscapes the norm. Big money, exclusive, and extremely low density. It is shocking to see these type of houses firmly under 1.4M. This can’t be good for the Bay Collection and Encinitas Ranch. Some of those houses sold for 2M from the builder and they are not near this prestige level.

Another factor to consider is the mello roos. While ER has 4k+ a year these houses in Pacific Crest have only $800 a year. Crestview has none. Big time bargains here IMHO.

[pemeliza]

Interesting theory about them letting prices fall. I agree that may become less involved with the market eventually but not until the economy has picked up the slack and prices are stabilized or moving up.

I think as an example of what could happen consider the stock market. At first the government was heavily involved with short sale bans, capital injections, bailouts, etc. Eventually the stock market came back on its own because it had over-corrected to the downside and had priced in a complete meltdown which didn’t materialize.

I believe that at certain price points at least the housing market may very well have over-corrected to the downside and now may be recovering a bit on peoples expectations that fundamentals will improve quicker than most people think. When the fundamentals improve to the point were banks are ready to lend again, the government will slip out the back door. This won’t happen IMHO for at least 2-3 years.

Of course, that is what I think will happen and I could be dead wrong. Time will tell.

[pemeliza]

Interesting theory about them letting prices fall. I agree that may become less involved with the market eventually but not until the economy has picked up the slack and prices are stabilized or moving up.

I think as an example of what could happen consider the stock market. At first the government was heavily involved with short sale bans, capital injections, bailouts, etc. Eventually the stock market came back on its own because it had over-corrected to the downside and had priced in a complete meltdown which didn’t materialize.

I believe that at certain price points at least the housing market may very well have over-corrected to the downside and now may be recovering a bit on peoples expectations that fundamentals will improve quicker than most people think. When the fundamentals improve to the point were banks are ready to lend again, the government will slip out the back door. This won’t happen IMHO for at least 2-3 years.

Of course, that is what I think will happen and I could be dead wrong. Time will tell.

[pemeliza]

Interesting theory about them letting prices fall. I agree that may become less involved with the market eventually but not until the economy has picked up the slack and prices are stabilized or moving up.

I think as an example of what could happen consider the stock market. At first the government was heavily involved with short sale bans, capital injections, bailouts, etc. Eventually the stock market came back on its own because it had over-corrected to the downside and had priced in a complete meltdown which didn’t materialize.

I believe that at certain price points at least the housing market may very well have over-corrected to the downside and now may be recovering a bit on peoples expectations that fundamentals will improve quicker than most people think. When the fundamentals improve to the point were banks are ready to lend again, the government will slip out the back door. This won’t happen IMHO for at least 2-3 years.

Of course, that is what I think will happen and I could be dead wrong. Time will tell.

[pemeliza]

Interesting theory about them letting prices fall. I agree that may become less involved with the market eventually but not until the economy has picked up the slack and prices are stabilized or moving up.

I think as an example of what could happen consider the stock market. At first the government was heavily involved with short sale bans, capital injections, bailouts, etc. Eventually the stock market came back on its own because it had over-corrected to the downside and had priced in a complete meltdown which didn’t materialize.

I believe that at certain price points at least the housing market may very well have over-corrected to the downside and now may be recovering a bit on peoples expectations that fundamentals will improve quicker than most people think. When the fundamentals improve to the point were banks are ready to lend again, the government will slip out the back door. This won’t happen IMHO for at least 2-3 years.

Of course, that is what I think will happen and I could be dead wrong. Time will tell.

[pemeliza]

Interesting theory about them letting prices fall. I agree that may become less involved with the market eventually but not until the economy has picked up the slack and prices are stabilized or moving up.

I think as an example of what could happen consider the stock market. At first the government was heavily involved with short sale bans, capital injections, bailouts, etc. Eventually the stock market came back on its own because it had over-corrected to the downside and had priced in a complete meltdown which didn’t materialize.

I believe that at certain price points at least the housing market may very well have over-corrected to the downside and now may be recovering a bit on peoples expectations that fundamentals will improve quicker than most people think. When the fundamentals improve to the point were banks are ready to lend again, the government will slip out the back door. This won’t happen IMHO for at least 2-3 years.

Of course, that is what I think will happen and I could be dead wrong. Time will tell.

[pemeliza]

Personally, I thought it would get extended but not expanded to existing home owners. Seems a bit like an act of desperation. It will be interesting to see what happens this spring. Yes, there is a lot of distressed inventory but once the economy turns and people feel better about their jobs, the pent-up demand may be furious. That may be a while off but I get the feeling the potential pent-up demand is swelling as the sales volumes continue to shrink.

In the coastal areas between 2000-2006 a lot of demand was relieved by new construction. One could have easily argued that new construction was the “shadow inventory” of that time period. The demand easily overcame the supply and the rest is history. Yes prices were lower back in 2000-2001 but interest rates where higher as was the value of the greenback.

[pemeliza]

Personally, I thought it would get extended but not expanded to existing home owners. Seems a bit like an act of desperation. It will be interesting to see what happens this spring. Yes, there is a lot of distressed inventory but once the economy turns and people feel better about their jobs, the pent-up demand may be furious. That may be a while off but I get the feeling the potential pent-up demand is swelling as the sales volumes continue to shrink.

In the coastal areas between 2000-2006 a lot of demand was relieved by new construction. One could have easily argued that new construction was the “shadow inventory” of that time period. The demand easily overcame the supply and the rest is history. Yes prices were lower back in 2000-2001 but interest rates where higher as was the value of the greenback.

[pemeliza]

Personally, I thought it would get extended but not expanded to existing home owners. Seems a bit like an act of desperation. It will be interesting to see what happens this spring. Yes, there is a lot of distressed inventory but once the economy turns and people feel better about their jobs, the pent-up demand may be furious. That may be a while off but I get the feeling the potential pent-up demand is swelling as the sales volumes continue to shrink.

In the coastal areas between 2000-2006 a lot of demand was relieved by new construction. One could have easily argued that new construction was the “shadow inventory” of that time period. The demand easily overcame the supply and the rest is history. Yes prices were lower back in 2000-2001 but interest rates where higher as was the value of the greenback.

[pemeliza]

Personally, I thought it would get extended but not expanded to existing home owners. Seems a bit like an act of desperation. It will be interesting to see what happens this spring. Yes, there is a lot of distressed inventory but once the economy turns and people feel better about their jobs, the pent-up demand may be furious. That may be a while off but I get the feeling the potential pent-up demand is swelling as the sales volumes continue to shrink.

In the coastal areas between 2000-2006 a lot of demand was relieved by new construction. One could have easily argued that new construction was the “shadow inventory” of that time period. The demand easily overcame the supply and the rest is history. Yes prices were lower back in 2000-2001 but interest rates where higher as was the value of the greenback.

[pemeliza]

Personally, I thought it would get extended but not expanded to existing home owners. Seems a bit like an act of desperation. It will be interesting to see what happens this spring. Yes, there is a lot of distressed inventory but once the economy turns and people feel better about their jobs, the pent-up demand may be furious. That may be a while off but I get the feeling the potential pent-up demand is swelling as the sales volumes continue to shrink.

In the coastal areas between 2000-2006 a lot of demand was relieved by new construction. One could have easily argued that new construction was the “shadow inventory” of that time period. The demand easily overcame the supply and the rest is history. Yes prices were lower back in 2000-2001 but interest rates where higher as was the value of the greenback.

[pemeliza]

Thanks for the link freshman … I didn’t think the bill was retro-active and that confirmed it.

[pemeliza]

Thanks for the link freshman … I didn’t think the bill was retro-active and that confirmed it.

[Author]

Posts