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Great information. I wonder if out migration will actually increase over the current numbers? It seems as though affordability is the driving factor behind the exodus and even if prices drop significantly, it will take years for affordability to improve.

Have you asked them where they got their graph for the housing data? Has anyone seen a similar graph for the period in question (80s-90s)?

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When we purchased in 2002, we bought a great house in Ramona with no HOA and no MR. The commute was much, much better than north on the 15.

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I live on the water in Coronado. The other day I noticed a terrible smell coming from the water. Yuck. There are billboards and signs up in Imperial Beach warning about the problem by http://www.wildcoast.net. I have not checked out the website yet.

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The top article on Yahoo’s Most Popular (Most Recommended) is “Housing Prices Drooping, Buyers waiting.”

My mother lives in an area of Phoenix that is very vulnerable to a downturn. I tried to tell her again today that they should consider selling their house, particularly as her husband’s company is downsizing and he is worried about his job and her bills are higher than she budgeted when they bought the house. She told me it would be stupid to sell as there are so many houses for sale in her neighborhood right now. She told me it would be much better to wait. She does not understand that it not going to get better with time – at least for the next few years.

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I saw one recently. Apprentice was spelled Apprestice. I got a good laugh out of that one.

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I apologize to anyone who may have been irritated by my part in hijacking a thread or threads. I am afraid that when a gauntlet is thrown down before me, it is hard for me to walk away without picking it up.

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Wow, the market is bleeding again today. I thought maybe we would see a little bounce.

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PS, the link is a statement about human nature. You encourage me to a read a book, yet you are not willing to read a short article.

You are attacking me without addressing the underlying message in my posts. I make no claims to perfection, or that I know everything or have the answer to everything. The more I learn, the more I realize I do not know. I do know much more about history and human psychology than the average person (though certainly not an expert).

I am very happy to admit that your knowledge of the intricacies of the global financial markets surpasses my own, probably by a long shot. You have previously admitted that your knowledge of history is not as well formed as your knowledge in other areas. I am a devotee of history. I try to learn more everyday. I do not think it possible to see where we are going as a global community without understanding the past.

It is human nature to engage in warfare. Warfare should be avoided. We should go to significant lengths to avoid it. However, global situations change, sometimes frighteningly fast. An unprepared country can quickly become a dominated country.

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Zk, I was a little worked up. I was quoting what a friend once told me about her Chinese in-laws. They were very upset that their son was marrying a Philippino, as only a person of Chinese decent was good enough for their family. Any person of another background was inferior. In the end, they decided that she looked Chinese enough that they would try to pass her off of as Chinese to the extended family. She was firmly advised not to mention her true background. My statement was true in this case but I am aware that this is only one family. As such, it should not be applied to everyone.

I do think that China has the potential to try for world domination. This could take many forms. A financial battle is probably most likely but they certainly have the war machine and the people to run it. If war were to break out between our two countries, it would be horrific. We would probably be on the winning side for a while, then they would wear us down with attrition. Our military may not be deep enough to defeat them in the final analysis.

There is much to be admired in the Chinese culture. I have a great deal of respect for them and their amazing history. It is out of this respect for their strength and resolve that I would fear greatly for our country if were undefended.

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Like your son, I’m sure many children think we should get rid of military forces. That idea is very naive.

You still fail to address my main point. Human history is one of warfare. Did you read the link?

I have no desire to use any of our weapons, nuclear bombs included. It is foolish not to engage in the deterrence of having them.

Do you think we should get rid of our police force? They are forced to kill people now and again. A lot of money goes to their support. The police force has a domestic role that can be compared to the military’s global role. The police are a deterrent to crime and they step in to act, sometimes very violently, when the populace is in danger.

Once again, please address the thousands of years of human history that are rife with warfare. You go to great lengths to research the historical movements of housing and the stock markets as a way to predict the future yet you completely turn your back on a monumental amount of evidence that those people who are not ready to protect what they have, stand to lose it.

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PS, this article illustrates my point.
http://www.pgpft.com/On_Sheep_Wolves_and_Sheepdogs-Grossman.htm

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War is something that should be despised. It is horrible and ugly. It is also inevitable, not in every situation, but sometimes. It is foolish not to be ready for those times. I defend our need for a strong military not because my husband is a member, but because that is what I believe. I felt that way long before I met him.

I am certainly passionate about this issue. It comes out in my postings. It scares me that people actually believe that we could just dispense with our military. I want my children safe. I want my grandchildren safe. I want their children safe.

As for my husband’s freedom to resist serving in Iraq or in any other war zone, that came when he signed his name. It comes every time he has an opportunity to get out (he could currently give his notice that he intends to get out on any given day). Military service is voluntary. EVERY person who participates in our armed forces does so of their own free will. If they are sent to war they do not like, too bad. Conscientious objectors serving in the miltary I call something else entirely. I call them coward.

I did not say I wanted you to go to Germany. I intended to highlight the fact that you have praised Germany and that country’s education yet you still choose to live here. You have praised their system but have never so much as given a nod to their ugly, fairly recent past, at least in these postings.

You seem to be confusing my support of a strong military with a desire to go to war, further, a desire for the war in Iraq. It is possible to separate those things. I am not arguing political policy, rather our need for defense. I have posted previously that I do not believe everything we have done was right.

However, I do have a few comments that are policy related. Since we did not find WMD in Iraq, is that really proof positive that it was never there? Clinton tried negotiating and it did not work. The planning for 9/11 happened mostly when he was president. Do you hate Clinton for his failures? Do you call him evil for failing to protect us?

My argument is that war in inevitable. One only has to look at history to see that.
The difference between us is that I see the threats facing us. I do not think you see it. The world is full of people with whom you CANNOT reason. There are plenty of powerful people whom you could never influence through any means that you were willing to employ. Would you convert to Islam for the sake of peace? That is the only thing that would save you with some of those people.

World politics are extremely complex. I would never believe that just because Russia and China are saying little about Iran means there is nothing to worry about. Russia was our ally in WWII, until they took half of Europe. Have you ever done any business with the Chinese? If you have, enough said.

How can you deny the thousands of years of history that clearly show that human nature drives countries to warfare? Is a new paradigm really possible? Perhaps if we all just pray for a peaceful, permanently high plateau….

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Your drycleaner might a good source for determining whether people are hurting. It would be interesting if his business suddenly drops off.

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Those are good points. It does not seem logical that China would not have cut back on growth if we purchased less from them.

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Well said, picpoule.

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