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There is plenty of land available in places like Ramona. If the 67 was turned into a freeway, there would be a huge boom out there. The city is very opposed to development but things change. My house in Ramona had a view of miles and miles of undisturbed land.
People in LA live in Riverside and commute 2 hours each way. When land is scarce, they will just build further out. Although we are bordered by Mexico and the ocean, we can still expand eastward.

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I totally agree with sdduuuude.

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I previously had an ARM with a prepayment penalty (for 3 years) of about 5k. We sold our house before the three years were up but did not have to pay the penalty because it was not a refi.

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SDR’s source said that the space for large subdivisions would be used up in a decade or so. A decade or so is not right now. People are claiming there is a current shortage, which would explain the rise in prices as a function of scarcity. In my opinion, the rise in prices was initially a natural part of the cycle that then went wild with super low interest rates. Maybe the NEXT cycle will have prices go wild because of scarcity.

Further, when buildable land truly becomes very scarce, we will probably see it become easier to build on land that is currently being protected. There will be political pressure for more housing.

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I moved most of my money out of stocks and into cash in early May (whew!!!). I decided that the risk of a heavy loss was greater than the possibility of a gain during the next six (or so) months. I think that we will be hearing lots of news about poor Christmas sales as the recession gains steam. My prediciton is that it will officially start about Thanksgiving.

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Murray, I notice that you did not address PowaySeller’s points regarding median prices. She’s right.

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I’ll agree with a 10% decline… every year for 6 years. I haven’t broken out my calculator, but that is about 40% decline from today.

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Murray, the period of decline will be long. We are still just beyond the tipping point. The crazy, easy mortgages that created the bubble will also doom it to collapse. The overuse of margin was a significant cause of the stock market crash of 1929. The housing market will find an equilibrium point. If you believe that current prices are justified, then SD prices (as related to affordability) before the bubble must then be considered too low. The weather is the same that it was four years ago. People lived here then for the same reasons they live here now. There is a new element, however. More and more people are leaving because the cost benefit of the nice weather no longer tilts in favor of SD. Further, people in SoCal are way over leveraged. Something has to give.

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API scores and how ethnicity and neighborhood dynamics affects them is relevant to real estate. Anything related to ethnicity is bound to offend somebody. I think that many people are far too touchy and unable to discuss the issue with sense and without emotion. Truth is truth whether it is palatable or not (this should not be construed as support for any statements made by other posters).

A perfect example of PC censorship is the instance where the President of Harvard made comments to the effect that the innate differences between the brains of men and women could explain why there are fewer female scientists. He was heavily criticized for this statement, despite the fact that study after study have shown that the brains of men and women are different. Different does not mean better or worse. I was appalled that a scientific statement by an educator was excoriated. Political correctness, where it demands that truth be ignored, is revolting.

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I was living in OC during the early 1990s. My townhouse in Aliso Viejo went from 175,000 to 130,000. That same 25% reduction (or more) could easily happen here.

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I’m loving the weather right now. It is usually too cold here for me (at the beach) but it has been perfect lately. I wandered around downtown Coronado and ate lunch on the patio at the Del today. It was very enjoyable as the weather was so nice.

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I do think that we need to keep minimum wage in line with inflation. Perhaps it should be set to automatically increase with inflation each year.

I also feel for the poor. I feel for the people who truly have some unusual circumstance that prevents them from bettering their life. However, there are a lot of poor people who do nothing to improve their life or earning potential. There are many who are content to sit back, take public handouts and do nothing to improve their situations. I have a problem with paying for them to watch TV all day.

As for our health care system, perhaps it would be a good idea to quit paying for regular visits. However, this could lead to even greater costs down the road as many illnesses would be more expensive to treat because people would delay seeking care. The fact that the Swiss live longer says nothing about the health care system. Europeans are much thinner than we are. I am always struck by the difference when I go there. Americans eat like pigs and have rampant diabetes and heart disease to prove it.

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That median seems very low from our SoCal viewpoint. However, it would go very far in much of rural America. You can still buy a manufactured house on 10 acres in rural Oklahoma for under 100k.

I think the huge pay given to CEOs of sinking companies is absurd. It is embezzlement, in my opinion. Pay should be tied to performance (but then there would probably be even more book cooking…). I don’t have any problem with huge salaries, if it can be justified.

I do hear a lot socialist sounding posts from a couple of posters. Socialists think that the pie slices are unfairly portioned and it should be evened out. Take from the rich and give to the poor in the form of socialized healthcare, housing assistance and extensive government programs. Sure, you can change the portions so that everybody gets an even amount, but the pie will be much smaller, causing the pie pieces to then be much smaller for everyone. I wonder how many of these posters have actually been to former or current socialist countries. I have been to the Czech Republic and the pall that still hangs over much of the country is disturbing.

Further, socialized healthcare is not better than what we have here. It may be easier to get your cold checked out but if you really need advanced medicine, you could find yourself dealing with a doctor or set of doctors who are not as highly trained as those we have here. Socialized medicine takes away much of the incentive for highly intelligent, highly skilled people to enter the profession. Many people with money who live with socialized medicine go elsewhere for advanced care.

As for a higher infant mortality rate, there could be many reasons for this to be the case here. It is very possible that our healthcare is so good that that a much greater number of pregnancies actually reach birth. Many pregnancies that would have terminated naturally because of a problem with the fetus are continuing to birth because of excellent care. This is a theory that I haven’t verified, but is seems a reasonable explanation.

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NotARocketScientist, I’ve often wondered why more people do not do the same thing. If you are selling your house and the neighbor’s yard looks awful, why not pay for someone to mow the lawn and pull the weeds? I think a lot of people just can’t stand the idea of giving something away free, even if it helps them out in the end.

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Yet another nail in the RE coffin. The rise in prices have put home ownership beyond affordability, the recent rise in interest rates have exacerbated the affordability issue and a tightening in lending practices will permanently put that new home beyond reach (until prices go down).

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