Rents are up.

[murray]

PwySlr
Yes I’m familiar with the Japan r/e collapse. Different situation though: Japan population aging / declining big time, banks were unwilling to write down bad loans, they don’t have millions of illegals sneaking into the country, etc. Also I read Harry Dent a long time ago – he says US will follow Japan. He claims it’s all demographics driven. Worth a read.

[an]

Very good explanation PS, you nailed it in the head. Lets say your price range is $500k and the house that fetched $500k last year is now $400k, would you buy that $400k house or would you buy a larger and better house for $500k that was $600k or $700k? That is why median price will always show very small decline in comparison to the actual decline. If you still don’t believe it, do your own research. I know someone who bought a 1480sq-ft house in March 05 for $565k, the owner before him bought it for around $580k, and now, a 1700+sq-ft house a couple of houses away is listing for around $550k and a 1480sq-ft house down the street is listing for around $500k. This is around Compass Point Dr. In 92126. Those are SFR just for your info. I can pull up multiple examples in just this tiny area with the same result. So please tell me again, who’s confused?

[PD]

Murray, I notice that you did not address PowaySeller’s points regarding median prices. She’s right.

[powayseller]

murray, what is your response to the median price explanation?

For col, sell your rentals while you can still get almost top dollar. I’m trying to help you…

[murray]

Million dollar sales puff up sfr resales, cheap condo conversions bring down new home sales. It all gets mixed up in medians.
Nah, closing costs and taxes will kill me. Won’t do 1031 either. I’ll just collect (rising) rents. All are prop 13, 2 are f&c, 1 @ 4.35% fixed finished in 6 yrs, about the time I’ll buy additional properties for 50% off ha ha.

[an]

“Million dollar sales puff up sfr resales, cheap condo conversions bring down new home sales. It all gets mixed up in medians.
Nah, closing costs and taxes will kill me. Won’t do 1031 either. I’ll just collect (rising) rents. All are prop 13, 2 are f&c, 1 @ 4.35% fixed finished in 6 yrs, about the time I’ll buy additional properties for 50% off ha ha.”

I thought you don’t believe it’ll be down more than 10%, now you say 50%? Wow, and I was told I’m confused.

If you think it won’t drop more than 10%, why don’t you dump all your cash in and buy 10 more @ 0% down and get the “rising” rent. Contradition galore.

[murray]

Go watch the Simpsons if you don’t have anything worth while to add.

[powayseller]

Million dollar sales puff up sfr resales, cheap condo conversions bring down new home sales. It all gets mixed up in medians.”

Problem is, the cheap condo conversions are not selling at the same rate, reducing the number of sales at the low end.

When I attended the UCLA Anderson Forecast in May 2006, I met a realtor who specializes in helping investors 1031 out of SD properties into other areas which are still appreciating. They will keep their money in TX and other areas for 3-5 years, and then come back into San Diego when prices are down 50%. Perhaps this interests you, since it sounds like the tax bill on a sale would be intense, and you don’t want to roll over into other SD property.

The guy is Chris from the Mackey Sales Team, Prudential California Realty, 858-794-3157, http://www.MoveSanDiego.com

[an]

“Go watch the Simpsons if you don’t have anything worth while to add.”

Wow, this post has so much information.

[JWM in SD]

Murray, you can’t really be stupid can you?? Are you sure you understand the difference between the mean (average) and the median? Doesn’t sound like it.

Regarding everyone wants to live in SD…uh no, they don’t. The companies I’ve worked for have all had major difficulties recruiting from other parts of the country because of the housing prices my friend. The company I’m at right now is seriously looking at moving out of SD because the cost of living is too high relative to whay they can afford to pay.

[powayseller]

murray is a typical investor in denial, because he doesn’t know how to avoid the 1031 tax hit on his sales. I gave him a contact who can help him. Denial over?

[murray]

I’ve investigated TICs and other 1031 relief so I don’t know where ps gets off writing I’m in denial.

Because I predict ~10% r/e decline versus Rich’s 25% or your 50% and dissect housing numbers to reveal less than apocalyptic price declines doesn’t justify namecalling or uncivility on your part. Grow up.

[CardiffBaseball]

At this point you are all simply feeding the troll. Murray isn’t able to discuss facts, because it goes against his religion. Dismiss everyone as bubblehead. Despite solid attempts to explain how the median is poor indicator we get, “you bubbleheads crack me up”.

Troll

[powayseller]

murray, what is your response to the median explanation? Why not cash out now?

I believe murray’s questions are sincere, and he exemplifies the strong denial of the current market. His logic is shared by thousands of people.

murray is a savvy guy, a real estate investor, and yet he is unaware of what is coming down the pike. How much less informed then is Joe Six Pack.

It’s a fascinating revelation once again, of the public’s inability to grasp the facts. Sorry, murray, don’t mean to pick on you, but after spending so much patience yesterday to educate you, and you still don’t get it, I am truly fascinated.

[Anonymous]

My husband and I own a home in Poway (since 1994)We are currently living in Virginia (Navy) and have been renting the house since November 2003. The current tenants are divorcing and therefore will not be renewing their lease. We are torn as to whether to sell or rent again. Being that we are not in the area, we aren’t sure exactly what the market is doing there. You all sound quite knowledgable regarding this, any suggestions? If we decide to rent, what’s the average rent in Poway these days? The house is a 3 br 2 bath with a pool and spa.
Any info would be greatly appreciated!

[Author]

Posts