Rents are up.

[Anonymous]

FSD, you’re right, it’s not a big drop in rent. Even in real (deflated) terms, it’s only a 7% drop (CPI information is at the same website). Unemployment did peak over ’92-’94, but was only 7.1-7.9% (unemployment information is at the same website).

Last time around was a recession. This time around, with the $7.2 trillion in overspending that will need to be recouped (i.e., moved to savings), it will be a depression.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

Yes, once again (with tongue in cheek) I must say that fortunately there aren’t going to be any massive job losses in Southern California tied directly to real estate’s decline.

Thank God Orange County, California isn’t ground zero for sub-prime lending, nationwide. Thank God, again, that retailers in SoCal haven’t been reaping the benefits of MEW more than anywhere else on the planet. Thank God SoCal is the land of eternal milk and honey, where high-paying jobs are plentiful and the people here are the most fiscally responsible in the nation. Thank God people wouldn’t think of moving out of California, even if the prospects for gainful employment, clean natural resources, and safe communities were greatly diminished.

I am so excited to watch our local economy hold up, in stark contrast to other parts of our great nation, which are already going down the tubes (most notably, FL and the Northeast)

Give me a break…

[sdrealtor]

LBC,
A weak economy will drive more renters and less buyers. If there is a huge recession it will impact the entire nation. According to your logic they will be fleeing every city in America. That just doesnt work. Where will they go….to the moon?

[Anonymous]

I think I know where the jobs will go. Beautiful scenery for high-tech workers won’t be so important (such as with biotech folks, today, on their hilltops in Sorrento Valley). Massive highway expansions (such as on 5 and 15) solely for buses and Priuses won’t be so important. Light rail to nowhere (the Red Line off of 8 and the line under construction along 76) won’t be so important. Lousy educational results despite $11K per student in Federal and state spending won’t be important.

Entrepreneurs will accelerate their movement, now underway, to sane cities such as Austin and sane regions like Florida, where taxes are relatively low because they don’t fund so many dumb programs. California is viewed as the land of flakes and nuts for some reason.

If San Diego County is losing folks, now (and it is, per the ’05 Census results); and is ground zero for one of the biggest housing bubbles in the nation; and the pain from the bubble bursting hasn’t yet begun; to me, it only makes sense that the outmigration to saner parts of the U.S. is only going to accelerate when the pain does begin.

I’m a CFO; I look to maintain and improve profitability in my business. One clear way to do such is to cut jobs in high priced CA and move to lower cost AZ, TX, or FL.

[sdrealtor]

ROTLMAO

Have you ever been to Florida. Calling FLA one of the saner parts of the country would seem to suggest you havent been there. I’ve been there hundreds of times and have many relatives there. FLA has more low lifes and lunatics than CA not to mention horrific schools!

[Anonymous]

Yeah, I've been there a few times.

It may not be your cup of tea, but the people are voting with their feet: San Diego County, population down 0.1%, '04 to '05. Florida, population up 2.3%, '04 to '05.

http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/ 

And the San Diego County number of 0.1% down is misleadingly benign. 1.5% (43K) of the population of San Diego County (2.935MM) left in '05 (offset by 45K in births and 17K in 'net international migration' = illegal immigrants). Some went to Riverside County, some went to AZ, some went to FL. But, without a doubt, 1.5% leaving in one year is huge.

Three biotechs opening labs in FL, instead of expanding in CA. My guess, it's only just begun.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

Actually, yes…the moon is quite desirable (they’re not making any more moon, you know). Don’t laugh, bitter jealous renters like me have been secretly developing the dark side of the moon the last four years, waiting for the worldwide housing bubble to pop.

sdr–I concede that rents could/should go up (hopefully not mine, though…I’ve enjoyed paying the same rent for my SFR the last 4 years) I’ve just been playing with semantics and half-baked arguments here.

[sdrealtor]

Disney World doesnt count. My in-laws just left today to go back to FLA. The market there is far worse than here already. Prices are falling and rents are falling there (my f-i-l is a realtor there and m-i-l a leasing agent). People are terrified after the last hurricane season. FLA has more scammers than any place I have ever seen. Lots of retirees but as far as a real business climate, it leaves a lot to be desired. The people there did everything they could to keep the biotechs out. I still go there at least twice a year. It is a joke to call it a saner place than CA.

One thing you would like is all the bible beaters on the west coast of FLA.

[PerryChase]

I can understand the attraction of Florida or Texas, especially for businesses. Personally, I would never move out of Southern California unless it were to move to New York City .

[Author]

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