Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
PD
ParticipantSure, prices will be higher later – 10 or 15 years later. Pasadena’s point is nothing but RE establishment spin. Instead of data, he is falling back on buyer emotion, which is conveniently impossible to quantify. This is just a new tactic in line with the usual nonsense about “sunshine tax” and “they aren’t making any more land.”
I don’t think anybody here is saying that there will never be a time to buy SoCal real estate. RE will be a good investment again. It is not a good investment right now. The only people buying right now are the uniformed, the folks that have let emotion cloud their judgment (sure, there are a few who are ignoring the evidence), people who have convinced themselves that nothing in their future life will prevent them holding onto the property for 15 years until prices go back up (do they really think they have a crystal ball?), the small number who have so much money that the benefit of owning outweighs the disadvantage of a depreciating asset, the financially stupid who don’t seem to care that they could lose hundreds of thousands and maybe a very small number who have found their dream home (like docteur, who owns outright).
So yes, there are people buying. And the band played on….even as the titanic was sinking.
ParticipantWhat was the average percentage drop per year in the last downturn? I think almost 20% in new homes and 8% in existing homes is quite significant. I have posted before about a friend who has just had their house fall out of escrow for the second time and the sale price was 19% below the peak.
ParticipantPorkman, I predict brisk business in your future.
ParticipantI sold my house in anticipation of downturn and would not say that my life is on hold. I don’t like renting but I am living a pretty nice life in a house I could never come close to buying (it is worth double what I could just barely afford). If I bought, my standard of living would decrease because I would have a much smaller house with fewer perks.
If we purchased a house, my monthly expenditures would increase significantly. Plus, I would have to invest most of my money in the house in order to buy it. That money is currently earning a return. If I add together the return I’m getting on my cash (expecting only a modest 5%) plus the difference between what I would pay in my mortgage and what I’m paying in rent, I come up with a number that equals fully one half of our family’s yearly income! The property would HAVE to appreciate at least 5% a year for me to break even.
Further, the added burden of a monstrous mortgage would force me to put my life on hold because I would not be able to afford to do anything but hang out in my cramped living room.
On a separate note, a friend was just offered a great job in Orange County. The couple really wanted to take the job as they would love to live in proximity to the ocean and really like SoCal. However, even though the money was better than other job offers they received, they reluctantly turned the job down in favor of a less expensive location. Not only are people moving away, they are also deciding not come here at all.
ParticipantIt also takes a while for new comps to show up in their estimate. I kept checking zillow for the sale price of house that I knew sold in August. The sale just showed up on zillow a week or so ago. The seller had been asking 585k and took 535K. Plus, I don’t know what incentives they gave the buyers. They probably could have gotten 585k at the peak.
ParticipantI have spend the last five minutes looking for a forum topic so I could post a link. No wonder I can’t find it. Whew!!! It is a relief to know I wasn’t imagining things…
ParticipantBAH is based on rank. As you move up, you get more BAH. Our rent is about $600 more than we receive in BAH (plus the cost of electric/water/garbage/gas). The only people I know who are paying the same in rent as they are receiving in BAH have lived in their rental for many years and are still paying rent at old prices while their BAH has gone up.
ParticipantInstead of buying, why not rent something in that area and try it out? Moving is a pain but losing 200k is a much bigger pain. How long would you have to work to earn 200k? How long would you have to work in order to effect a move? Pay yourself to rent.
Every dollar that our old house goes down in value is a dollar we paid ourselves to (sell and) move.
After you have lived in an area, you are better able to decide which street or even which house you want to buy. You might even get the inside scoop on a house that is about to come up for sale and get in cheap.
ParticipantThe information zillow provides opened the floodgates of information for the consumer. Tons of information is now only a couple of clicks away. In a fast moving market, the estimates are going to be off. The fact that there is a lag in the “zestimate” does not make it useless. I think it is fantastic.
ParticipantWow, lots of Coronado bashing. The Cays are pretty cool if you live on the water. As for the mold, I’m sure that has a lot more to do with the damp conditions rather than the dump that was here 50 years ago. The village is just as damp (“The village” is the term locals use to describe the main part of the island). I live in the Cays and have never seen a rat here. I have never been unable to get over the bridge because of a closure. The schools are also a 10 out of 10 for California schools.
ParticipantWe have a friend who is trying to sell their house. It just fell out of escrow for the second time despite the fact that it was priced almost 20% below the peak. Yikes!!
ParticipantSour grapes? What nonsense. A good portion of regular posters on this site sold at or near the peak (myself included). No sour grapes for me, just nice tasty wine…
ParticipantI’ve got to admire them for trying!
ParticipantBgates, once again, thank you for the meaty post! 🙂
-
AuthorPosts
