[PD]

The realtors are starting get it, even if the public hasn’t yet. I went to a couple of open houses and talked to two of the realtors. I was pretty upfront about how I thought the market was going down in the next few years. While they did not outwardly say they agreed with me, they did not make any attempt to deny it. Both seemed somewhat resigned about the whole thing.
As an interesting side note, one realtor told me about a house that she has in escrow where she admitted (in a round about way) that she had priced the property almost 25% over what she thought it would sell for. She was surprised that it sold for 20% less than the asking price.

[PD]

I think Walmart’s numbers were so poor because of all the illegal construction workers who lost their jobs recently (and have not been reported).
Just about every time I go to Walmart the checker starts talking to me in Spanish until she looks up at me and then switches to English.

[PD]

I thought we were going to see a correction today when things started going sideways overseas last night. Sigh…
It seems impossible that things could keep going like this. Each day I grow more and more amazed.

[PD]

I’m certainly not bitter either. I could buy but choose not to even though I much, much prefer owning to renting. For me, logic trumps emotion. Although the bubble was good to me (sold 05), I really wish it had not gotten so crazy. Even though I would have less money, I would be comfortable buying right now, which is what I want to do. So I am resigned to renting. I look at it as though it is my job. I’m paying myself to put off the gratification of ownership.
If prices go up less than what I’m making on my money, I win.
If prices stay steady, I win.
If prices go down, I win big time (and they already have gone down in most SD areas).

Is owning right now worth an onerous mortgage payment and giving up the return I’m making on what would be my downpayment? No way.

[PD]

the anger you all are throwing towards me further validates the disgruntlement among you. Calling people names for buying today is grade school behavior. Why hate people who can afford something?

First, no one hates you or anyone who is buying. In general, we think those people either don't understand what is about to happen, are sheeple who will follow the crowd over the cliff, are financially stupid, are financially secure but have chosen to enter the market with knowledge that it will go down because they can ride it out, or are complete and utter idiots. Which are you, Alex?

Second, you are the one who sounds desperate. You must be either a home owner or employed in real estate (or both). You are clearly trying to rationalize your financially suicidal home purchase. Buy in 05 or later, did you?

Third, most the people here CAN afford to buy a house but are showing restraint until prices reduce, as they must, either through inflation or outright depreciation.

Fourth, I bet you have big car payment and a new vehicle with shiny rims in your driveway.

[PD]

..

[PD]

The general public thinks there is a direct, hard link between what the fed does and mortgage interest rates. That isn’t the case. It has a affect but there are other things at play. I also think that the fed could lower rates and then have the mortgage rates increase. The fed knows this to be the case, however. Maybe they won’t lower rates in attemp to save housing (and have it not work) because they know the dollar will get crushed. Just polishing my crystal ball…

[PD]

Here is an interview with Powayseller. Overall, I think she does a pretty good job. I agreed with her for the most part. I didn’t like the advice she gave to a homeowner who would have his house paid off in 5 years. She advised him to sell in order to protect himself against the coming recession. I don’t think that would be the right move for that person.

She did refrain, mostly, from absolute statements.

http://www.blownmortgage.com/blownmortgage_blog/podcasts/index.html?ref=patrick.net

If she had just stuck to the subject, like she does in this interview, without staring personal attacks, she wouldn’t have gotten into trouble.

[PD]

We are a society that demands instant gratification. Anything less than a 5% drop per month isn’t “instant” enough.

[PD]

I think your “Point” is that, “Everything is fine, folks. No downturn here.”

Anyone who purchased in the 90s and did not make a bunch of money is either an idiot who paid WAYYYY too much or the unluckiest guy in SD who somehow mananaged to find the one property or area that didn’t double.

Your examples so far have been not furthered the RE discussion in any way. Are there a few people still getting top dollar? Yep. Are there lots of people with lots of equity? Yep. Are these people going to be able to stop the snowball from rolling downhill? Nope.

[PD]

Oh, I don’t know…. NRA sounds pretty good. Afterall, they have been firing their guns in the air and hooting and hollering long after the party ended and everybody else went home.

[PD]

Everybody who bought in the 90s made a ton of money. What’s your point Realtor?

The relevant question is whether these people were able to resist the lure of the HELOC.

[PD]

CFC CEO exercises options

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070507/countrywide_financial_insider_transactions.html?.v=1

This is an interesting little tidbit: The stock sale was conducted under a prearranged 10b5-1 trading plan which allows a company insider to set up a program in advance for such transactions and proceed with them even if he or she comes into possession of material nonpublic information.

So when did he submit the paperwork? If he submitted the paperwork anytime in the last year, he was acting on inside information and using this trading plan to legalize his insider trading. Hmmmmm….. Anyone know when he filed the paperwork?

[PD]

I second FSD's nomination for "Officially turned into nut-job" category. I just reread it. There are some gems there. In the humor category, I would have to say that FSD's photo post on page 4 is a contender.

 

Once again I blame Greenspan and his alien buddies

Alien or Not ? You be the judge.

I think we should put on our aluminum foil hats before they read our minds and send us all to Guantanamo.

—- Rats, I tried to insert the post with the photo but didn’t do it properly. Could someone post it for me? Thanks.

[PD]

I’ve had some CFC Jan 08 puts for a while now. They are in the red but I expect them to recover. I just bought some more. Overall, my RE related Puts and shorts are well in the black.

[Author]

Posts