[one_muggle]

This would crash the US economy which is the principle source of business for China. This doesn’t serve China whatsoever and would draw them into deep recession as well. I think there is historical precident (has happened before) for this but can’t recall which countries were involved.

radelow, I believe the precedent to which you are referring were the two great nations The Turtle and The Scorpion…
http://www.snopes.com/critters/malice/scorpion.asp

That wasn’t a Chinese fable was it!?

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

This would crash the US economy which is the principle source of business for China. This doesn’t serve China whatsoever and would draw them into deep recession as well. I think there is historical precident (has happened before) for this but can’t recall which countries were involved.

radelow, I believe the precedent to which you are referring were the two great nations The Turtle and The Scorpion…
http://www.snopes.com/critters/malice/scorpion.asp

That wasn’t a Chinese fable was it!?

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

This would crash the US economy which is the principle source of business for China. This doesn’t serve China whatsoever and would draw them into deep recession as well. I think there is historical precident (has happened before) for this but can’t recall which countries were involved.

radelow, I believe the precedent to which you are referring were the two great nations The Turtle and The Scorpion…
http://www.snopes.com/critters/malice/scorpion.asp

That wasn’t a Chinese fable was it!?

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Just curious how the topic devolved from a discussion on the Dow dropping a few percent to praying for soup kitchens and messages of hope that ‘my’ family can weather the impending repeat of Grapes of Wrath.
The market has been shrugging off bad news and ignoring risk for a bit too long, and it now shows signs of becoming more rational. As a buy and hold investor, that brings me joy since I can buy at a discount. How exactly is that praying for a recession? As if the economy ever cared what my hopes were anyway.
Also, these veiled “hopes that my family can weather the storm” are actually quite presumptuous and condescending. As I have said, I’ve no concern for me–believe it or don’t. If my portfolio goes to zero (which would be hard since I’m cash heavy), I lose my house, and my job (which is unlikely), I am still OK–but thanks for the concern.
Also, I never have and still do not wish ruination upon others. I also do not expect this real estate meltdown to ruin hordes of people, at least not anymore than did the S&L bust or Tech bubble.
BTW: Unemployment has been sub double digit since WWII, ignoring some imperfections in the number, that means 90% or more people have had jobs for almost 70 years. I doubt many of you old timers were alive, never mind working before then. http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat1.pdf

Perhaps you are worried about a depression rather than a recession?

Truly hoping you all stay solvent,
-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Just curious how the topic devolved from a discussion on the Dow dropping a few percent to praying for soup kitchens and messages of hope that ‘my’ family can weather the impending repeat of Grapes of Wrath.
The market has been shrugging off bad news and ignoring risk for a bit too long, and it now shows signs of becoming more rational. As a buy and hold investor, that brings me joy since I can buy at a discount. How exactly is that praying for a recession? As if the economy ever cared what my hopes were anyway.
Also, these veiled “hopes that my family can weather the storm” are actually quite presumptuous and condescending. As I have said, I’ve no concern for me–believe it or don’t. If my portfolio goes to zero (which would be hard since I’m cash heavy), I lose my house, and my job (which is unlikely), I am still OK–but thanks for the concern.
Also, I never have and still do not wish ruination upon others. I also do not expect this real estate meltdown to ruin hordes of people, at least not anymore than did the S&L bust or Tech bubble.
BTW: Unemployment has been sub double digit since WWII, ignoring some imperfections in the number, that means 90% or more people have had jobs for almost 70 years. I doubt many of you old timers were alive, never mind working before then. http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat1.pdf

Perhaps you are worried about a depression rather than a recession?

Truly hoping you all stay solvent,
-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Just curious how the topic devolved from a discussion on the Dow dropping a few percent to praying for soup kitchens and messages of hope that ‘my’ family can weather the impending repeat of Grapes of Wrath.
The market has been shrugging off bad news and ignoring risk for a bit too long, and it now shows signs of becoming more rational. As a buy and hold investor, that brings me joy since I can buy at a discount. How exactly is that praying for a recession? As if the economy ever cared what my hopes were anyway.
Also, these veiled “hopes that my family can weather the storm” are actually quite presumptuous and condescending. As I have said, I’ve no concern for me–believe it or don’t. If my portfolio goes to zero (which would be hard since I’m cash heavy), I lose my house, and my job (which is unlikely), I am still OK–but thanks for the concern.
Also, I never have and still do not wish ruination upon others. I also do not expect this real estate meltdown to ruin hordes of people, at least not anymore than did the S&L bust or Tech bubble.
BTW: Unemployment has been sub double digit since WWII, ignoring some imperfections in the number, that means 90% or more people have had jobs for almost 70 years. I doubt many of you old timers were alive, never mind working before then. http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat1.pdf

Perhaps you are worried about a depression rather than a recession?

Truly hoping you all stay solvent,
-one muggle

[one_muggle]

temeculaguy et al.,

I’d just been reading RealtyTrac and they put the national rate at 1/134
http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=2932&accnt=64847
Unless it is a typo, what is really astounding is the comparison to last year’s national ratio of 1/1117
http://www.realtytrac.com/news/press/pressRelease.asp?PressReleaseID=87

That’s around 800 percent increase, which is in-line with the recent report on LA county’s 799% increase, but the RealtyTrac number is national. I know SoCal is the center of the universe, but the numbers seem a bit suspicious–must be Haliburton.

-one muggle

PS. what makes this CDO mess worse than the stock market blip (so far) is the concentration of the losses and the wicked leverage, two things which made the ’29 bust as bad as it was. I can’t see how this will end well.

[one_muggle]

temeculaguy et al.,

I’d just been reading RealtyTrac and they put the national rate at 1/134
http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=2932&accnt=64847
Unless it is a typo, what is really astounding is the comparison to last year’s national ratio of 1/1117
http://www.realtytrac.com/news/press/pressRelease.asp?PressReleaseID=87

That’s around 800 percent increase, which is in-line with the recent report on LA county’s 799% increase, but the RealtyTrac number is national. I know SoCal is the center of the universe, but the numbers seem a bit suspicious–must be Haliburton.

-one muggle

PS. what makes this CDO mess worse than the stock market blip (so far) is the concentration of the losses and the wicked leverage, two things which made the ’29 bust as bad as it was. I can’t see how this will end well.

[one_muggle]

bsrsharma,

It’s a bit xenophobic to think that only the US will protect your private property.
True there are lousy countries to buy RE, but that doesn’t mean all foreign countries are a significant risk of nationalization, as your comment implies. With a few minor exceptions, like Texas, US RE as a whole is a lousy investment right now even for capitol preservation.
RE is dropping nationwide, as is the dollar, how on earth can you possibly make the case that US RE investment preserves capitol!? One commercial example: I suggest you avoids investing in Argentinian oil fields, but Canada fields have some great prospects. Do you think Canada is about to grab private holdings? It all depends on location, just like in the US.

The big money I know are keeping their homes and prime vacation holdings, like Park City, Keys, Hawaii, but have dumped INVESTMENT properties over the last several years. The places I know they have dumped are NC coast, Keys (again investment, not personal), Long Island, Boulder, and Vermont. BTW, these are the same people who were selling their equities and buying RE in 2000.
My point is simply that investment grade opportunities in US RE right now are mostly dead for now, with a few exceptions for the experienced foreclosure vultures. The only people I know that are hoping for investment properties (not owner-occupied SFH) in the US, such as San Diego, are the monied-middle, who have enough cash to purchase a second or third home, but don’t have the real money and contacts to go global.
If you know of big money buying in the US, I would love to know. It’s a great harbinger. I’ll do the same if I hear anything–no specifics of course.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

bsrsharma,

It’s a bit xenophobic to think that only the US will protect your private property.
True there are lousy countries to buy RE, but that doesn’t mean all foreign countries are a significant risk of nationalization, as your comment implies. With a few minor exceptions, like Texas, US RE as a whole is a lousy investment right now even for capitol preservation.
RE is dropping nationwide, as is the dollar, how on earth can you possibly make the case that US RE investment preserves capitol!? One commercial example: I suggest you avoids investing in Argentinian oil fields, but Canada fields have some great prospects. Do you think Canada is about to grab private holdings? It all depends on location, just like in the US.

The big money I know are keeping their homes and prime vacation holdings, like Park City, Keys, Hawaii, but have dumped INVESTMENT properties over the last several years. The places I know they have dumped are NC coast, Keys (again investment, not personal), Long Island, Boulder, and Vermont. BTW, these are the same people who were selling their equities and buying RE in 2000.
My point is simply that investment grade opportunities in US RE right now are mostly dead for now, with a few exceptions for the experienced foreclosure vultures. The only people I know that are hoping for investment properties (not owner-occupied SFH) in the US, such as San Diego, are the monied-middle, who have enough cash to purchase a second or third home, but don’t have the real money and contacts to go global.
If you know of big money buying in the US, I would love to know. It’s a great harbinger. I’ll do the same if I hear anything–no specifics of course.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Hope you still have a job if a recession hits 🙁

Luckily, I am in the position of not being the least bit worried for myself, but I do not relish the idea of hordes of otherwise hardworking people getting laid off.
As I’ve said elsewhere, for the risky high-fliers on Wall Street or in RE I have no such compassion. I’ve family and friends in both and the smart ones have already made accommodations for bad times, which inevitably come around.

Those who wasted these past “summer months” without setting aside some nuts for winter will have some lean times ahead. Maybe they’ll become a bit more cautious next time.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Hope you still have a job if a recession hits 🙁

Luckily, I am in the position of not being the least bit worried for myself, but I do not relish the idea of hordes of otherwise hardworking people getting laid off.
As I’ve said elsewhere, for the risky high-fliers on Wall Street or in RE I have no such compassion. I’ve family and friends in both and the smart ones have already made accommodations for bad times, which inevitably come around.

Those who wasted these past “summer months” without setting aside some nuts for winter will have some lean times ahead. Maybe they’ll become a bit more cautious next time.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

bsrsharma,

You said Also, the rich will like to shelter their wealth in real estate.
The very wealthy people that I know have gotten out of RE almost entirely, with the exception of properties they use personally, and even some of those have been dumped.
Some have fled to commercial RE and others have gone foreign. South America has some nice bargains, such as Uruguay, as well as some areas of Europe. Though that isn’t as good as it was due to the dollar’s fall–but if you bought over the last two years, the recent currency differential would actually have been in your favor. I guess the take-away is, there are always places to make money, if you have money, but I don’t think US RE will be that place for at least a decade.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

bsrsharma,

You said Also, the rich will like to shelter their wealth in real estate.
The very wealthy people that I know have gotten out of RE almost entirely, with the exception of properties they use personally, and even some of those have been dumped.
Some have fled to commercial RE and others have gone foreign. South America has some nice bargains, such as Uruguay, as well as some areas of Europe. Though that isn’t as good as it was due to the dollar’s fall–but if you bought over the last two years, the recent currency differential would actually have been in your favor. I guess the take-away is, there are always places to make money, if you have money, but I don’t think US RE will be that place for at least a decade.

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Lookout,

5.07%ROI in US dollars??? No offense, but that kinda blows. You can get better than that with a CD. Try IndyMac, Etrade, Eloan, ING… And if you are worried about the $100k FDIC limit, you can buy into several, if you’ve more than a few $100k, first good for you, but then you should probably have a firm managing your money.

Also, I don’t know what bad experience you’ve had, but even with my very conservative investing I don’t think I’ve had a year where I’ve lost to the market, at least nothing significant. Granted some years that means I have just lost LESS than the market. But, if I didn’t beat the market on average, I would just buy index funds and spend more time on other business.

-one muggle

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