[ocrenter]

ok, I went back and pulled data of SD county inventory of for sale homes during the peak for comparison:

01/2006: 16,161
01/2007: 17,109
01/2008: 20,581
01/2012: 7000

so we are looking at inventory being 1/2.5 to 1/3 from peak levels. most of the reasons are already touched on by prior comments. but just looking at my neck of the woods of roughly 50 homes in my tract. there’s 2 homes currently for sale. there are 2 homes that want to sell but can not. there are 2 additional homes that really should have been foreclosed on but due to “manipulation factors” the nonpaying owners are still squatting in them.

so in my little world the inventory is 2, but it really should be 6. that means current inventory is 1/3 of what it could be. match up pretty well with current county-wide inventory pattern.

so there you have it, remove 1/3 of would be sellers by “manipulation via government or banks,” then remove 1/3 of would be sellers due to “seller holding strategy,” you are left with inventory that is 1/3 less than max potential.

the end result is home prices will stay flat for probably a decade. because every time the price appear to increase, that 2/3 of “manipulated and held inventory” will try to test the market and the uptick in price would get hammered down as a flat line once again. and we’ll just keep doing this until that “manipulated and held inventory” eventually get gradually taken care of.

[ocrenter]

[quote=SD Realtor]My suggestion would be to come and rent for awhile and get to know the city. Taking a description from an internet blog can be helpful but I would not limit myself to it. I also know plenty of transplants that wanted one thing when they came out and when they spent time here, they ended up locating in parts of the county that they never even thought about. You may find that you are enchanted with a north county coastal area or want the Poway schools after you spend time here. Nothing wrong with taking walks on the beach every day or two.

Spend some time, check it out, then decide.[/quote]

agree, we were from OC originally and we rented for several years when we moved to SD (a little more than planned due to the bubble). We logged a lot of miles and drove all over town. We would drive to a potential neighborhood, get out the jogging stroller, and just walk the neighborhood for an hour to really get the feel of the neighborhood. Just renting for 6 month to a year would be quite enough to give you a chance to to really understand the various neighborhoods and get a much better feel for where you ultimately would like to be.

you’ll get a better sense of traffic flow as well. that’s huge if you will be commuting.

lastly, use http://www.wunderground.com, they actually break down the local weather down to the local weather stations. it is amazing that some locations are always 5 degree hotter on hot days and also 5 degree colder on cold days compared to locations just minutes away. Sabre Springs in north county/RB area is one of these examples.

[ocrenter]

[quote=HenryPP]Thanks OCR and SD Realtor.

I think the really brutal MR is in Del Sur. 4S has high MR, especially north 4S, but it seems mostly less than 1% of purchase price/year.

The thing that really got me was looking at RealtyTrac. The whole of 4S was clusters of the big red dots signifying some stage of the foreclosure process. There look to be about three or four times as many homes in foreclosure as there are listed in the MLS, once you go above 2,000 sqft. And this is for both north 4S and south 4S. Most of these show auction dates from Dec 2011 to Feb 2012. Lord knows when these will hit the MLS.

Actually, considering how over-priced these homes were when they were first built and sold in 2004-2007, I’m almost surprised there aren’t more red dots. Here is my best guess as to why it’s not a total disaster zone:

Lots of homeowners have kids in local schools, and like the schools and the area. Plus they have good jobs, so >$100K for single-income families, maybe $200K for dual-income. That’s enough to continue paying the mortgage if you absolutely refuse to leave and move the kids. Plus there are few good family homes available for rent close by. So even though a lot of these families are probably barely hanging on financially, they are still able to make it by cutting all unnecessary expenses.[/quote]

4S will continue to see distress for quite some time, especially since banks have taken so long to drag this thing out. A lot of folks in 4S are also in “voluntary house arrest.” meaning they are trapped in their overpriced purchases, but they keep up with the payments with the idea that eventually things will turn around. How many will wise up and walk away? there may be a steady trickle of them instead of the really bad areas such as Temecula or Eastlake where things seem so hopeless that walking away is a much easier decision.

But because of the above, this is why it is really important to make sure you get a good price. someone mentioned previously getting a shortsale for $160/sqft 4000 sqft home. That is the type of bargain you have to aim for. At the very least $200/sqft for the smaller homes.

[ocrenter]

I second SDR’s comments.

Just be sure to look at resales instead of new construction. They are still selling at $700-800k for 3100-3900 sqft homes, adding on MR of 1.9%, simply too pricey for the house and lot you end up getting.

When looking for resales, the south side is a lot better, MR significantly lower and the neighborhood better planned.

[ocrenter]

[quote=UCGal][quote=ocrenter][quote=sdduuuude]A great place if you telecommute. Looks like it will take you a week just to get to a freeway.[/quote]

what kind of a car are you driving to take a week to travel 3 miles?[/quote]

Yeah and it’s 10 minutes to La Jolla Shores. LOL.

almost 6 miles to 15, 6+ miles to 56, and 9 miles to I5. That’s using roads. Crows may have different mileage.[/quote]

uh, 3.6 miles to RB Rd exit on the I15, 3.7 miles to Camino Del Norte exit on the I15. 6.1 miles to the Camino Del Sur exit on the 56. 10.5 miles to Via De La Valle exit on I5.

And no, this is not Santee, therefore it is not 10 minutes to La Jolla.

[ocrenter]

[quote=sdduuuude]A great place if you telecommute. Looks like it will take you a week just to get to a freeway.[/quote]

what kind of a car are you driving to take a week to travel 3 miles?

[ocrenter]

The new homes in 4S are definitely looking at property tax + MR of 1.9%. Translating to essentially $7000 per year in MR. HOA around $90/month. So monthly extras of $670/month.

The average MR for the smaller homes in the Lakes are $5600 per year. When the homes were going for $900k, the MR rate was 1.6%. Now that the homes are more like $800k, the MR rate is now more like 1.7%. At $360 per month HOA, the monthly extras work out to be $830/month.

4S homes are bigger in sqft, but on smaller lots, translating into a “reach out and touch your neighbor” experience. The Lakes homes are smaller but the lots are bigger.

My personal favorite remains the Santa Fe Valley gated homes in between 4S and the Lakes. not a lot of resales. but if you can get one for close to $1-1.1 million, that would be a great deal. Monthly extras (MR + HOA) work out to $514. If you add in the cost of landscape and interior upgrades of a new home in the Lakes, it pretty much work out to be the same cost.

[ocrenter]

[quote=Essbee]

Regarding Verrazzano, we are also considering it. However, I am not a huge fan of the alley entrance (back garage) and courtyards in lieu of yard. The demographic there seems more of a mix of older and younger people, whereas Del Sur seems to be mostly young families. I like the trees and overall landscaping in Verrazzano. I really like the look of some of the more traditional homes with front garages around the perimeter of the development, but most zillow puts most of those at 900K to 1M+.

Almost ALL of the resales in Del Sur are of the alley-entrance type, and most have a much lower square footage, so we have not considered these.

We have tried many times to like 4S Ranch, but so far, we haven’t liked it much. We have mostly looked at the North side, and something about that view coming in (thousands of houses, row after row) is not appealing. The streets are wider, but it also feels kind of empty.[/quote]

It is very hard to like the north side of 4s. The homes are packed in in a very cookie cutter way. The south side was a lot better, but the opportunities for bargains are less. Adding insult to injury, the north side MRis actually much higher in general compared to the south side.

Del sur does have a much better atmosphere. If the prices are low enough to justify the high MR, it is worth looking at.

verrazzano does have its occasinal bargains. Just need some patience. The atmosphere is much nicer overall, MR is lower than del sur as well.

[ocrenter]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-110047873-7717_Via_Vivaldi_San_Diego_CA_92127

This 3000 sqft resale in verrazano just sold for $650k, $100k below listing. I believe the mello roos is lower than del sur as well.

Unless you catch the builder in a desperate situation, you are better off finding a resale in this market.

[ocrenter]

regarding Valenica by California West. Each lot purchased at $252k, rough estimate of $100/sqft for ~3000 sqft home = total cost of $550k for the builder.

the lot size is very similar to Davidson’s old development adjacent to Camino Del Sur, on Via Montecristo and New Park Terrance. Those are about 500 sqft smaller than your target size. But they can still help serve as guides. Those resales with landscape and interior furnishings all done are going for high $500k as short sales. As for 3000 sqft homes, look at those back loading garage homes on Concord Ridge, those are going for the low $600k as resales.

Looks like CalWest have been selling Valencia at low 700k. Fair price for a Valencia should be in the high $500k range, especially given the high mello roos and HOA (I know you are already adding those in, but still.) And remember, new homes should always be less than adjacent relatively new resales.

now as for thoughts in regard to schools and weather…

while people will pull up the API and argue Carmel Valley schools are better, my opinion is Del Sur schools are essentially comparable.

as for weather, a few miles inland is actually in your favor. The marine layer can really make coastal summers a major bummer. A friend that bought in Carmel Valley rarely uses his HOA pool even during the summer because of the overcast and the low temps.

in regard to better value, while given the type of demand we are unlikely going to see drops in value in Carmel Valley, you could look at 92127 homes and see potential bargains that will bounce back in value in the long term.

[ocrenter]

congrats! good job on the purchase, less than $170/sqft on a Davidson home in a good area is more than anyone can ask. sub 4% interest rate is icing on the cake.

homes in this tract went for upward of $1.1 million at the peak of the market in ’05-’06.

and even though on the surface you only reaped a 30% discount from the peak, the difference in the amount financed plus the 2% difference in mortgage interest rate and also accounting for inflation means your monthly obligation is at 50% discount from peak.

I’m sure you’ve seen this prior thread on the subject:

http://piggington.com/4s_ranch_reo_still_too_high

I think consensus here was mid $600k as the bottom for the high 3000 sqft models back in ’09. but of course that did not account for inflation and the ultra low interest rate.

[ocrenter]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=ocrenter][quote=bearishgurl][quote=ocrenter][quote=sdrealtor]To answer the OP question….it sucks[/quote]

Oh boy, look for a 3 page rebuttal complete with bolded paragraphs for emphasis from the resident Chula Vista booster upcoming.[/quote]

Nah, I don’t need to. I just consider the source and realize its coming from complete ignorance.

Don’t you reside in “4-closure Ranch,” ocrenter? I’m waiting to see a thread started by a 4-closure Ranch resident polling their “neighbor Piggs” on amounts of home equity each currently has (or “negative equity,” as the case may be), or comparing brands of sheets in their windows :=0

Oh, well, you know what they say . . . if you’re underwater and you know you’re gonna be there for awhile, take swimming lessons … or get a snorkel!![/quote]

Already told you several times I rented there, liked it quite a bit when we rented there. Our rental got foreclosed and that was when I was starting my blog and I coined “4-closure ranch”. We have a lot of friends and co-worker living there. There are underwater folks to be sure, but it is still a very nice place to live and visit.

We do not live there. And we are still $200k above water from my purchase price in late 2008.[/quote]

ocr
Not to change the subject but do you remember when you bought and I told you your deal was a likely bottom for what you got and would be hard to replicate. At the time you disagreed but in hindsight what do you think now?[/quote]

We actually did jump in with the idea that maybe we might be going in 10% above the bottom but figured that extra 10% was not worth the extra waiting time. That extra 10% drop we expected never came.

[ocrenter]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=ocrenter][quote=sdrealtor]To answer the OP question….it sucks[/quote]

Oh boy, look for a 3 page rebuttal complete with bolded paragraphs for emphasis from the resident Chula Vista booster upcoming.[/quote]

Nah, I don’t need to. I just consider the source and realize its coming from complete ignorance.

Don’t you reside in “4-closure Ranch,” ocrenter? I’m waiting to see a thread started by a 4-closure Ranch resident polling their “neighbor Piggs” on amounts of home equity each currently has (or “negative equity,” as the case may be), or comparing brands of sheets in their windows :=0

Oh, well, you know what they say . . . if you’re underwater and you know you’re gonna be there for awhile, take swimming lessons … or get a snorkel!![/quote]

Already told you several times I rented there, liked it quite a bit when we rented there. Our rental got foreclosed and that was when I was starting my blog and I coined “4-closure ranch”. We have a lot of friends and co-worker living there. There are underwater folks to be sure, but it is still a very nice place to live and visit.

We do not live there. And we are still $200k above water from my purchase price in late 2008.

[ocrenter]

[quote=sdrealtor]To answer the OP question….it sucks[/quote]

Oh boy, look for a 3 page rebuttal complete with bolded paragraphs for emphasis from the resident Chula Vista booster upcoming.

[ocrenter]

[quote=ltsdd][quote=ocrenter]4S and SEH is perfect for middle class families that put good schools on top of their list. $400-$600K range is what 4S/SEH homes should be at.[/quote]

Absolutely, that’s exactly what I was thinking. Wouldn’t it be great they would roll back prices so that homes Carmel Valley would be in the range of $500-700K, 4S $400-600K and Stonebridge Estates $300-500K.[/quote]

You know, 4S prices are not that far off. There are a bunch of >3000 sqft homes asking in the mid 600’s, I see a lot of mid 2000 sqft homes in the 500k range. So essentially prices are about 10% above what is expected for the area.

The smaller more tract like developments in stonebrige are also in the low 600k range, I think they are pretty comparable to 4S style homes. As for your idea that the typical 4000-5000 sqft homes on 1/3 to 1/2 acre in Stonebridge getting to $500k… You might be in for a really really long wait, good luck on that, I’ll be pulling for you.

CV 2500sqft SFR are still at around 800k. Like I said many time before, most overpriced out of the 3 areas. On the other hand, SEH 3000 sqft homes are firmly in the 500k range!

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