[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]How do you know this home didn’t have any of those upgrades built into the house? I can see landscaping being extra ad on later, but shutters, usually, people get that upgrade from the lender. Especially people in this price range. They don’t have the time and energy to shop around aftermarket. Talking about landscaping, the front hard looks dead and the backyard is just hardscape. So, lets say it cost them $100k to do the backyard hardscape, it would still only give this house ~12-15% premium. So, 12-15% premium would bring the 2000 price to be around $670k-$690k.

This was built as a luxury home, so a lot of upgrades might be built into the house when it was first built, so as you said, some of the best one went for $1.77M. I assume those are the ones w/ 30000 sq-ft lot in the best location. This one has one of the worse location, hence the 2007 sold price. Wasn’t this home sold for $1.21M.

OK, if you’re so adamant about not using Palomino house as referent point, then lets use the Tea Tree house. As you said they’re very similar in built quality. However, the Tea Tree house is not backing up to Camino del Sur. Back in 2007, the Rising River was sold for $1.21M while the Tea Tree house were going for closer to $1.6-1.7M (it already have all the premium built in, since it was resale in 2007). So, add your $170k in upgrades to the Rising River house, 2007 price would be around $1.7M. Which still put it at around 15-20% premium when comparing the 2 properties. So, back in 2000, the Tea Tree sold for $730k, add in landscaping, would put it at around $830k, then subtract 15-20%. We would then have $664k-$705k. That’s where I’d put this house 2000 price to be, not $800k.[/quote]

Good point on the difference between this home and say another one in Avaron that sold for $1.77 million. Now that’s a $500k difference during the peak of bubble years.

Now the truly typical Avaron homes during the peak were really $1.4 to $1.5 million. The other corner backing to Del Sur went for $1.35 million. So we know this guy really got it without any options and got a “good deal.” Now assuming most of Avaron on standard lot size average $1.45 million. Factor in lot premium, upgrades, and you can balloon to $1.77 million easy. So then the question is, why the price difference between $1.2 million vs $1.45 million. it is a smaller lot, it is right next to the gate, can that fully explain things?

What we do know if during the peak lot premiums are exaggerated. So a typical $100k lot premium is exaggerated to a $200k difference. when you return to 2000 pricing, you also need to reduce that premium differential. I know you seen that as well when you look at homes sold in 2000, the price differential between homes in the same community simply did not have that dramatic spread as sales during the peak of the bubble.

I started the whole comment here in term of Avaron in general. My feeling is this home as a resale commands about mid to high 800k and this is the bottom. other Avaron homes on more typical lots will be more along the high 900k to $1 mil range. As for those that went for $1.77 million back in the peak, bottom would probably feel like $1.1.

And that is the Big Squish Down that Rob Dawg was talking about. A $500k spread narrowed to just $250k spread as things move downward.

[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]How do you know this home didn’t have any of those upgrades built into the house? I can see landscaping being extra ad on later, but shutters, usually, people get that upgrade from the lender. Especially people in this price range. They don’t have the time and energy to shop around aftermarket. Talking about landscaping, the front hard looks dead and the backyard is just hardscape. So, lets say it cost them $100k to do the backyard hardscape, it would still only give this house ~12-15% premium. So, 12-15% premium would bring the 2000 price to be around $670k-$690k.

This was built as a luxury home, so a lot of upgrades might be built into the house when it was first built, so as you said, some of the best one went for $1.77M. I assume those are the ones w/ 30000 sq-ft lot in the best location. This one has one of the worse location, hence the 2007 sold price. Wasn’t this home sold for $1.21M.

OK, if you’re so adamant about not using Palomino house as referent point, then lets use the Tea Tree house. As you said they’re very similar in built quality. However, the Tea Tree house is not backing up to Camino del Sur. Back in 2007, the Rising River was sold for $1.21M while the Tea Tree house were going for closer to $1.6-1.7M (it already have all the premium built in, since it was resale in 2007). So, add your $170k in upgrades to the Rising River house, 2007 price would be around $1.7M. Which still put it at around 15-20% premium when comparing the 2 properties. So, back in 2000, the Tea Tree sold for $730k, add in landscaping, would put it at around $830k, then subtract 15-20%. We would then have $664k-$705k. That’s where I’d put this house 2000 price to be, not $800k.[/quote]

Good point on the difference between this home and say another one in Avaron that sold for $1.77 million. Now that’s a $500k difference during the peak of bubble years.

Now the truly typical Avaron homes during the peak were really $1.4 to $1.5 million. The other corner backing to Del Sur went for $1.35 million. So we know this guy really got it without any options and got a “good deal.” Now assuming most of Avaron on standard lot size average $1.45 million. Factor in lot premium, upgrades, and you can balloon to $1.77 million easy. So then the question is, why the price difference between $1.2 million vs $1.45 million. it is a smaller lot, it is right next to the gate, can that fully explain things?

What we do know if during the peak lot premiums are exaggerated. So a typical $100k lot premium is exaggerated to a $200k difference. when you return to 2000 pricing, you also need to reduce that premium differential. I know you seen that as well when you look at homes sold in 2000, the price differential between homes in the same community simply did not have that dramatic spread as sales during the peak of the bubble.

I started the whole comment here in term of Avaron in general. My feeling is this home as a resale commands about mid to high 800k and this is the bottom. other Avaron homes on more typical lots will be more along the high 900k to $1 mil range. As for those that went for $1.77 million back in the peak, bottom would probably feel like $1.1.

And that is the Big Squish Down that Rob Dawg was talking about. A $500k spread narrowed to just $250k spread as things move downward.

[ocrenter]

17010 Castello Cir is a good example.

brand new home in the high 800k range. sold in mid 2001. which means construction started in late 2000, which probably means the sales price was negotiated back in mid 2000, so the high 800k price was 2000 pricing.

Now, the lot premium as well as the increase in size likely would account for a $150k premium on the price. So you take $870k and minus that and you get $720k.

$720k and add all of the after market upgrades this house has and you get $880k.

what you have shown with Castello is that these homes are of the same quality as Avaron, as Castello at peak pricing was $1.7 million, and the average new homes in Avaron was around $1.4 to $1.5 million. Those new homes, after upgrades, then realistically would be at the same pricing. So you can extend that and say most Avaron homes brand new at 2000 pricing would be around the $800k range. But This home in particular, because it is what it is, would be in the $700k range. However, adding all of the upgrades, mid $800k range would be a good price and quite frankly 2000 if not very close to it.

[ocrenter]

17010 Castello Cir is a good example.

brand new home in the high 800k range. sold in mid 2001. which means construction started in late 2000, which probably means the sales price was negotiated back in mid 2000, so the high 800k price was 2000 pricing.

Now, the lot premium as well as the increase in size likely would account for a $150k premium on the price. So you take $870k and minus that and you get $720k.

$720k and add all of the after market upgrades this house has and you get $880k.

what you have shown with Castello is that these homes are of the same quality as Avaron, as Castello at peak pricing was $1.7 million, and the average new homes in Avaron was around $1.4 to $1.5 million. Those new homes, after upgrades, then realistically would be at the same pricing. So you can extend that and say most Avaron homes brand new at 2000 pricing would be around the $800k range. But This home in particular, because it is what it is, would be in the $700k range. However, adding all of the upgrades, mid $800k range would be a good price and quite frankly 2000 if not very close to it.

[ocrenter]

17010 Castello Cir is a good example.

brand new home in the high 800k range. sold in mid 2001. which means construction started in late 2000, which probably means the sales price was negotiated back in mid 2000, so the high 800k price was 2000 pricing.

Now, the lot premium as well as the increase in size likely would account for a $150k premium on the price. So you take $870k and minus that and you get $720k.

$720k and add all of the after market upgrades this house has and you get $880k.

what you have shown with Castello is that these homes are of the same quality as Avaron, as Castello at peak pricing was $1.7 million, and the average new homes in Avaron was around $1.4 to $1.5 million. Those new homes, after upgrades, then realistically would be at the same pricing. So you can extend that and say most Avaron homes brand new at 2000 pricing would be around the $800k range. But This home in particular, because it is what it is, would be in the $700k range. However, adding all of the upgrades, mid $800k range would be a good price and quite frankly 2000 if not very close to it.

[ocrenter]

17010 Castello Cir is a good example.

brand new home in the high 800k range. sold in mid 2001. which means construction started in late 2000, which probably means the sales price was negotiated back in mid 2000, so the high 800k price was 2000 pricing.

Now, the lot premium as well as the increase in size likely would account for a $150k premium on the price. So you take $870k and minus that and you get $720k.

$720k and add all of the after market upgrades this house has and you get $880k.

what you have shown with Castello is that these homes are of the same quality as Avaron, as Castello at peak pricing was $1.7 million, and the average new homes in Avaron was around $1.4 to $1.5 million. Those new homes, after upgrades, then realistically would be at the same pricing. So you can extend that and say most Avaron homes brand new at 2000 pricing would be around the $800k range. But This home in particular, because it is what it is, would be in the $700k range. However, adding all of the upgrades, mid $800k range would be a good price and quite frankly 2000 if not very close to it.

[ocrenter]

17010 Castello Cir is a good example.

brand new home in the high 800k range. sold in mid 2001. which means construction started in late 2000, which probably means the sales price was negotiated back in mid 2000, so the high 800k price was 2000 pricing.

Now, the lot premium as well as the increase in size likely would account for a $150k premium on the price. So you take $870k and minus that and you get $720k.

$720k and add all of the after market upgrades this house has and you get $880k.

what you have shown with Castello is that these homes are of the same quality as Avaron, as Castello at peak pricing was $1.7 million, and the average new homes in Avaron was around $1.4 to $1.5 million. Those new homes, after upgrades, then realistically would be at the same pricing. So you can extend that and say most Avaron homes brand new at 2000 pricing would be around the $800k range. But This home in particular, because it is what it is, would be in the $700k range. However, adding all of the upgrades, mid $800k range would be a good price and quite frankly 2000 if not very close to it.

[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]
If my math is wrong, please disprove it. Saying it’s a different league compare to Avaron doesn’t help, especially when I just proved that Avaron does have a premium over Palomino Valley. Which is 5% based on 2007 sold price. Even giving it a generous 10% premium, it would still only put it around $660k 2000 price. Which is much closer to my $670k 2000 price estimate using 9446 Tea Tree Ln and 17235 Tallow Tree Ln as data points.

BTW, Avaron as a whole is better than the area Palomino Valley is in. HOWEVER, 15595 S Rising River Pl is right next to the gate and backs to Camino del Sur, which is very busy (i.e. loud). Palomino Valley house does not have the same issue. That might explain the small premium I calculated based on past sale prices.[/quote]

there are several problems bringing in Palomino Valley for comparison. #1: Palomino Valley is aimed at a different clientele, #2: average lot size for Palomino Valley is 8500 to 9500, vs 12000 to 30,000 sqft for Avaron, #3: the quality of the homes are night and day. Avaron is luxury based where as Palomino Valley is oversized tract home with typical tract home amenities. #4: you took a resale home fully landscaped and fully upgraded to compare to a new home without the above.

still not convinced that you were comparing apples and oranges?

In 2007 some of the best homes in the Palomino tract overlooking trails and open space went as high as $1.18 million. In 2007 some of the best homes in Avaron went for $1.77 million. But even looking at typical lots, we are looking at $1.4 to $1.5 million average. And remember these are again brand new homes compared to homes fully done. 5% premium would mean average Avaron homes would have been in the 1.2 million range. I just don’t see it.

The Tea Tree and Silver Gum homes are more comparable because they were brand new homes back in 2000. They were build as luxury homes much like Avaron. Some of the lot sizes in Avaron are smaller, but mostly Avaron lots can be comparable to them.

Going back to 15595 S Rising River Pl. The pool, the spa, the hardscape, the flooring, the shutters, we are looking at basically $170k in upgrades. $880k minus $170k gets you $710k. But you are on the hook for $20k of appliances so let’s add that to $710k for final value of $730k. You figure most of the Tea Tree/Silver Gum will have a lot primium to 15595 given the larger lot size. So you add $100k to the $730k and you get into the $800k range. So how is this NOT at 2000 pricing?

[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]
If my math is wrong, please disprove it. Saying it’s a different league compare to Avaron doesn’t help, especially when I just proved that Avaron does have a premium over Palomino Valley. Which is 5% based on 2007 sold price. Even giving it a generous 10% premium, it would still only put it around $660k 2000 price. Which is much closer to my $670k 2000 price estimate using 9446 Tea Tree Ln and 17235 Tallow Tree Ln as data points.

BTW, Avaron as a whole is better than the area Palomino Valley is in. HOWEVER, 15595 S Rising River Pl is right next to the gate and backs to Camino del Sur, which is very busy (i.e. loud). Palomino Valley house does not have the same issue. That might explain the small premium I calculated based on past sale prices.[/quote]

there are several problems bringing in Palomino Valley for comparison. #1: Palomino Valley is aimed at a different clientele, #2: average lot size for Palomino Valley is 8500 to 9500, vs 12000 to 30,000 sqft for Avaron, #3: the quality of the homes are night and day. Avaron is luxury based where as Palomino Valley is oversized tract home with typical tract home amenities. #4: you took a resale home fully landscaped and fully upgraded to compare to a new home without the above.

still not convinced that you were comparing apples and oranges?

In 2007 some of the best homes in the Palomino tract overlooking trails and open space went as high as $1.18 million. In 2007 some of the best homes in Avaron went for $1.77 million. But even looking at typical lots, we are looking at $1.4 to $1.5 million average. And remember these are again brand new homes compared to homes fully done. 5% premium would mean average Avaron homes would have been in the 1.2 million range. I just don’t see it.

The Tea Tree and Silver Gum homes are more comparable because they were brand new homes back in 2000. They were build as luxury homes much like Avaron. Some of the lot sizes in Avaron are smaller, but mostly Avaron lots can be comparable to them.

Going back to 15595 S Rising River Pl. The pool, the spa, the hardscape, the flooring, the shutters, we are looking at basically $170k in upgrades. $880k minus $170k gets you $710k. But you are on the hook for $20k of appliances so let’s add that to $710k for final value of $730k. You figure most of the Tea Tree/Silver Gum will have a lot primium to 15595 given the larger lot size. So you add $100k to the $730k and you get into the $800k range. So how is this NOT at 2000 pricing?

[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]
If my math is wrong, please disprove it. Saying it’s a different league compare to Avaron doesn’t help, especially when I just proved that Avaron does have a premium over Palomino Valley. Which is 5% based on 2007 sold price. Even giving it a generous 10% premium, it would still only put it around $660k 2000 price. Which is much closer to my $670k 2000 price estimate using 9446 Tea Tree Ln and 17235 Tallow Tree Ln as data points.

BTW, Avaron as a whole is better than the area Palomino Valley is in. HOWEVER, 15595 S Rising River Pl is right next to the gate and backs to Camino del Sur, which is very busy (i.e. loud). Palomino Valley house does not have the same issue. That might explain the small premium I calculated based on past sale prices.[/quote]

there are several problems bringing in Palomino Valley for comparison. #1: Palomino Valley is aimed at a different clientele, #2: average lot size for Palomino Valley is 8500 to 9500, vs 12000 to 30,000 sqft for Avaron, #3: the quality of the homes are night and day. Avaron is luxury based where as Palomino Valley is oversized tract home with typical tract home amenities. #4: you took a resale home fully landscaped and fully upgraded to compare to a new home without the above.

still not convinced that you were comparing apples and oranges?

In 2007 some of the best homes in the Palomino tract overlooking trails and open space went as high as $1.18 million. In 2007 some of the best homes in Avaron went for $1.77 million. But even looking at typical lots, we are looking at $1.4 to $1.5 million average. And remember these are again brand new homes compared to homes fully done. 5% premium would mean average Avaron homes would have been in the 1.2 million range. I just don’t see it.

The Tea Tree and Silver Gum homes are more comparable because they were brand new homes back in 2000. They were build as luxury homes much like Avaron. Some of the lot sizes in Avaron are smaller, but mostly Avaron lots can be comparable to them.

Going back to 15595 S Rising River Pl. The pool, the spa, the hardscape, the flooring, the shutters, we are looking at basically $170k in upgrades. $880k minus $170k gets you $710k. But you are on the hook for $20k of appliances so let’s add that to $710k for final value of $730k. You figure most of the Tea Tree/Silver Gum will have a lot primium to 15595 given the larger lot size. So you add $100k to the $730k and you get into the $800k range. So how is this NOT at 2000 pricing?

[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]
If my math is wrong, please disprove it. Saying it’s a different league compare to Avaron doesn’t help, especially when I just proved that Avaron does have a premium over Palomino Valley. Which is 5% based on 2007 sold price. Even giving it a generous 10% premium, it would still only put it around $660k 2000 price. Which is much closer to my $670k 2000 price estimate using 9446 Tea Tree Ln and 17235 Tallow Tree Ln as data points.

BTW, Avaron as a whole is better than the area Palomino Valley is in. HOWEVER, 15595 S Rising River Pl is right next to the gate and backs to Camino del Sur, which is very busy (i.e. loud). Palomino Valley house does not have the same issue. That might explain the small premium I calculated based on past sale prices.[/quote]

there are several problems bringing in Palomino Valley for comparison. #1: Palomino Valley is aimed at a different clientele, #2: average lot size for Palomino Valley is 8500 to 9500, vs 12000 to 30,000 sqft for Avaron, #3: the quality of the homes are night and day. Avaron is luxury based where as Palomino Valley is oversized tract home with typical tract home amenities. #4: you took a resale home fully landscaped and fully upgraded to compare to a new home without the above.

still not convinced that you were comparing apples and oranges?

In 2007 some of the best homes in the Palomino tract overlooking trails and open space went as high as $1.18 million. In 2007 some of the best homes in Avaron went for $1.77 million. But even looking at typical lots, we are looking at $1.4 to $1.5 million average. And remember these are again brand new homes compared to homes fully done. 5% premium would mean average Avaron homes would have been in the 1.2 million range. I just don’t see it.

The Tea Tree and Silver Gum homes are more comparable because they were brand new homes back in 2000. They were build as luxury homes much like Avaron. Some of the lot sizes in Avaron are smaller, but mostly Avaron lots can be comparable to them.

Going back to 15595 S Rising River Pl. The pool, the spa, the hardscape, the flooring, the shutters, we are looking at basically $170k in upgrades. $880k minus $170k gets you $710k. But you are on the hook for $20k of appliances so let’s add that to $710k for final value of $730k. You figure most of the Tea Tree/Silver Gum will have a lot primium to 15595 given the larger lot size. So you add $100k to the $730k and you get into the $800k range. So how is this NOT at 2000 pricing?

[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]
If my math is wrong, please disprove it. Saying it’s a different league compare to Avaron doesn’t help, especially when I just proved that Avaron does have a premium over Palomino Valley. Which is 5% based on 2007 sold price. Even giving it a generous 10% premium, it would still only put it around $660k 2000 price. Which is much closer to my $670k 2000 price estimate using 9446 Tea Tree Ln and 17235 Tallow Tree Ln as data points.

BTW, Avaron as a whole is better than the area Palomino Valley is in. HOWEVER, 15595 S Rising River Pl is right next to the gate and backs to Camino del Sur, which is very busy (i.e. loud). Palomino Valley house does not have the same issue. That might explain the small premium I calculated based on past sale prices.[/quote]

there are several problems bringing in Palomino Valley for comparison. #1: Palomino Valley is aimed at a different clientele, #2: average lot size for Palomino Valley is 8500 to 9500, vs 12000 to 30,000 sqft for Avaron, #3: the quality of the homes are night and day. Avaron is luxury based where as Palomino Valley is oversized tract home with typical tract home amenities. #4: you took a resale home fully landscaped and fully upgraded to compare to a new home without the above.

still not convinced that you were comparing apples and oranges?

In 2007 some of the best homes in the Palomino tract overlooking trails and open space went as high as $1.18 million. In 2007 some of the best homes in Avaron went for $1.77 million. But even looking at typical lots, we are looking at $1.4 to $1.5 million average. And remember these are again brand new homes compared to homes fully done. 5% premium would mean average Avaron homes would have been in the 1.2 million range. I just don’t see it.

The Tea Tree and Silver Gum homes are more comparable because they were brand new homes back in 2000. They were build as luxury homes much like Avaron. Some of the lot sizes in Avaron are smaller, but mostly Avaron lots can be comparable to them.

Going back to 15595 S Rising River Pl. The pool, the spa, the hardscape, the flooring, the shutters, we are looking at basically $170k in upgrades. $880k minus $170k gets you $710k. But you are on the hook for $20k of appliances so let’s add that to $710k for final value of $730k. You figure most of the Tea Tree/Silver Gum will have a lot primium to 15595 given the larger lot size. So you add $100k to the $730k and you get into the $800k range. So how is this NOT at 2000 pricing?

[ocrenter]

AN, Palomino Valley is in a different league compared to Avaron.

[ocrenter]

AN, Palomino Valley is in a different league compared to Avaron.

[ocrenter]

AN, Palomino Valley is in a different league compared to Avaron.

[Author]

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