Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
ocrenter
Participant[quote=enron_by_the_sea]This is actually very interesting data. Thanks
For example, I noticed that median household income in some areas popular with Pigg homefinders is much higher than what I was thinking.
Carmel Vally tract 8333 – $126676
Carmel valley tract 8328 -$194063
Sorrento Valley tract 8346 -$135313
NW Mira Mesa tract 8347 – $98600
Scripps Ranch tract 17046 -$132941
Scripps Ranch tract 9504 – $146705I can go on and on. But seems like these areas may not be filled with overextended homeowners as some are alleging.[/quote]
Thank you Brian for the link, very nice data!
interestingly, Carmel Valley actually has 2 census tracts that are in the 190k to 200k range, beating out even RSF/LJ. The Covenant RSF comes in at 170k.
meanwhile, Fairbanks Ranch, Santaluz, north Poway as well as newer parts of Scripps (South of Pomerado/Stonebridge) form the next tier at 140-150k.
4S/Del Sur are actually very comparible with the newer part of Carmel Valley south of the 56 or the east part of Carmel Valley in the low 100k range.
Participant[quote=CA renter]
Yes, I’m a VERY frustrated buyer…[/quote]
understand the frustration. I think most of us under-estimated the amount of government interference and bank inefficiency which synergistically lead to the slow leak of foreclosures rather than the foreclosure tsunami that would have come otherwise.
hind-sight is 20/20, but it does make sense given the scope of the problem and the general incompetence of the banks that how things ended up playing out.
rather than staying frustrated, I’ve always felt the best strategy is to have other areas in mind.
the best example I can give is say a frustrated Carmel Valley buyer. rather than continue the relentless search in CV, just drive 15 min inland and “settle” for something much nicer and cheaper in 4S for now. real estate WILL rise once again, that’s the nature of the historic curve. Some of the areas that have not seen much price drop will unlikely see significant increase in price when the curve start to move upward. But on the other hand, some of the areas that have fallen significantly will rise a lot more when that curve start moving upward. This is when the illogically wide spread in price difference between the two areas will close in. If that someone is still yearning for CV, they would have some equity that’s built up in 4S to make the move to CV.
Participant[quote=CA renter]
Yes, I’m a VERY frustrated buyer…[/quote]
understand the frustration. I think most of us under-estimated the amount of government interference and bank inefficiency which synergistically lead to the slow leak of foreclosures rather than the foreclosure tsunami that would have come otherwise.
hind-sight is 20/20, but it does make sense given the scope of the problem and the general incompetence of the banks that how things ended up playing out.
rather than staying frustrated, I’ve always felt the best strategy is to have other areas in mind.
the best example I can give is say a frustrated Carmel Valley buyer. rather than continue the relentless search in CV, just drive 15 min inland and “settle” for something much nicer and cheaper in 4S for now. real estate WILL rise once again, that’s the nature of the historic curve. Some of the areas that have not seen much price drop will unlikely see significant increase in price when the curve start to move upward. But on the other hand, some of the areas that have fallen significantly will rise a lot more when that curve start moving upward. This is when the illogically wide spread in price difference between the two areas will close in. If that someone is still yearning for CV, they would have some equity that’s built up in 4S to make the move to CV.
Participant[quote=CA renter]
Yes, I’m a VERY frustrated buyer…[/quote]
understand the frustration. I think most of us under-estimated the amount of government interference and bank inefficiency which synergistically lead to the slow leak of foreclosures rather than the foreclosure tsunami that would have come otherwise.
hind-sight is 20/20, but it does make sense given the scope of the problem and the general incompetence of the banks that how things ended up playing out.
rather than staying frustrated, I’ve always felt the best strategy is to have other areas in mind.
the best example I can give is say a frustrated Carmel Valley buyer. rather than continue the relentless search in CV, just drive 15 min inland and “settle” for something much nicer and cheaper in 4S for now. real estate WILL rise once again, that’s the nature of the historic curve. Some of the areas that have not seen much price drop will unlikely see significant increase in price when the curve start to move upward. But on the other hand, some of the areas that have fallen significantly will rise a lot more when that curve start moving upward. This is when the illogically wide spread in price difference between the two areas will close in. If that someone is still yearning for CV, they would have some equity that’s built up in 4S to make the move to CV.
Participant[quote=CA renter]
Yes, I’m a VERY frustrated buyer…[/quote]
understand the frustration. I think most of us under-estimated the amount of government interference and bank inefficiency which synergistically lead to the slow leak of foreclosures rather than the foreclosure tsunami that would have come otherwise.
hind-sight is 20/20, but it does make sense given the scope of the problem and the general incompetence of the banks that how things ended up playing out.
rather than staying frustrated, I’ve always felt the best strategy is to have other areas in mind.
the best example I can give is say a frustrated Carmel Valley buyer. rather than continue the relentless search in CV, just drive 15 min inland and “settle” for something much nicer and cheaper in 4S for now. real estate WILL rise once again, that’s the nature of the historic curve. Some of the areas that have not seen much price drop will unlikely see significant increase in price when the curve start to move upward. But on the other hand, some of the areas that have fallen significantly will rise a lot more when that curve start moving upward. This is when the illogically wide spread in price difference between the two areas will close in. If that someone is still yearning for CV, they would have some equity that’s built up in 4S to make the move to CV.
Participant[quote=CA renter]
Yes, I’m a VERY frustrated buyer…[/quote]
understand the frustration. I think most of us under-estimated the amount of government interference and bank inefficiency which synergistically lead to the slow leak of foreclosures rather than the foreclosure tsunami that would have come otherwise.
hind-sight is 20/20, but it does make sense given the scope of the problem and the general incompetence of the banks that how things ended up playing out.
rather than staying frustrated, I’ve always felt the best strategy is to have other areas in mind.
the best example I can give is say a frustrated Carmel Valley buyer. rather than continue the relentless search in CV, just drive 15 min inland and “settle” for something much nicer and cheaper in 4S for now. real estate WILL rise once again, that’s the nature of the historic curve. Some of the areas that have not seen much price drop will unlikely see significant increase in price when the curve start to move upward. But on the other hand, some of the areas that have fallen significantly will rise a lot more when that curve start moving upward. This is when the illogically wide spread in price difference between the two areas will close in. If that someone is still yearning for CV, they would have some equity that’s built up in 4S to make the move to CV.
Participant[quote=jpinpb]LOL. javatestcase – I’ve become quite disenchanted w/PB. It was good for a while and maybe I just was holding on to what it was, but the City of SD keeps allowing SFR to be mowed down and allowing developers to build 4 to 6 townhomes in its place. Okay. Fine if you’re going to do that. The developer pays whatever the high permits cost to do it. Passes his bill to whoever buys the townhomes for 500k+. [/quote]
This is a good thing. Disenchantment allow you to climb out of the PB hole and broaden your search. There really are other nicer areas without the sticky prices. (although we were just at PB over the weekend and I can certainly understand the appeal.)
Participant[quote=jpinpb]LOL. javatestcase – I’ve become quite disenchanted w/PB. It was good for a while and maybe I just was holding on to what it was, but the City of SD keeps allowing SFR to be mowed down and allowing developers to build 4 to 6 townhomes in its place. Okay. Fine if you’re going to do that. The developer pays whatever the high permits cost to do it. Passes his bill to whoever buys the townhomes for 500k+. [/quote]
This is a good thing. Disenchantment allow you to climb out of the PB hole and broaden your search. There really are other nicer areas without the sticky prices. (although we were just at PB over the weekend and I can certainly understand the appeal.)
Participant[quote=jpinpb]LOL. javatestcase – I’ve become quite disenchanted w/PB. It was good for a while and maybe I just was holding on to what it was, but the City of SD keeps allowing SFR to be mowed down and allowing developers to build 4 to 6 townhomes in its place. Okay. Fine if you’re going to do that. The developer pays whatever the high permits cost to do it. Passes his bill to whoever buys the townhomes for 500k+. [/quote]
This is a good thing. Disenchantment allow you to climb out of the PB hole and broaden your search. There really are other nicer areas without the sticky prices. (although we were just at PB over the weekend and I can certainly understand the appeal.)
Participant[quote=jpinpb]LOL. javatestcase – I’ve become quite disenchanted w/PB. It was good for a while and maybe I just was holding on to what it was, but the City of SD keeps allowing SFR to be mowed down and allowing developers to build 4 to 6 townhomes in its place. Okay. Fine if you’re going to do that. The developer pays whatever the high permits cost to do it. Passes his bill to whoever buys the townhomes for 500k+. [/quote]
This is a good thing. Disenchantment allow you to climb out of the PB hole and broaden your search. There really are other nicer areas without the sticky prices. (although we were just at PB over the weekend and I can certainly understand the appeal.)
Participant[quote=jpinpb]LOL. javatestcase – I’ve become quite disenchanted w/PB. It was good for a while and maybe I just was holding on to what it was, but the City of SD keeps allowing SFR to be mowed down and allowing developers to build 4 to 6 townhomes in its place. Okay. Fine if you’re going to do that. The developer pays whatever the high permits cost to do it. Passes his bill to whoever buys the townhomes for 500k+. [/quote]
This is a good thing. Disenchantment allow you to climb out of the PB hole and broaden your search. There really are other nicer areas without the sticky prices. (although we were just at PB over the weekend and I can certainly understand the appeal.)
Participant[quote=briansd1][quote=ocrenter]
But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.[/quote]I don’t agree on this. Those houses are functionally obsolete and before the bubble, they did not command that much of a premium over a new house inland. There will be an adjustment.
I don’t think that houses will drop much anymore because the world is awash in capital. Much of he world is peaceful and there is not much competition for capital these days. Central banks are pumping money into their economies.
I foresee a long period of stagnation for US housing with more choices for buyers. Proportional to income, housing will be cost less.[/quote]
I agree with the long term stagnation of the economy. But these homes, even though small and old, are the middle of the housing stock in places like PB. and I don’t see the middle moving all that much, primarily as these are SFRs.
Plus overall there simply wasn’t the amount of speculation in these homes back in the bubble days to supply large amount of “underwater” sellers needed to drop that segment of the market. What will simply happen is the owners will hold on and pass it on to their offsprings.
On the other hand, large new ultra-luxury homes in the millions and small condos were quite bubbly back in the days. Therefore, payback will come around.
Participant[quote=briansd1][quote=ocrenter]
But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.[/quote]I don’t agree on this. Those houses are functionally obsolete and before the bubble, they did not command that much of a premium over a new house inland. There will be an adjustment.
I don’t think that houses will drop much anymore because the world is awash in capital. Much of he world is peaceful and there is not much competition for capital these days. Central banks are pumping money into their economies.
I foresee a long period of stagnation for US housing with more choices for buyers. Proportional to income, housing will be cost less.[/quote]
I agree with the long term stagnation of the economy. But these homes, even though small and old, are the middle of the housing stock in places like PB. and I don’t see the middle moving all that much, primarily as these are SFRs.
Plus overall there simply wasn’t the amount of speculation in these homes back in the bubble days to supply large amount of “underwater” sellers needed to drop that segment of the market. What will simply happen is the owners will hold on and pass it on to their offsprings.
On the other hand, large new ultra-luxury homes in the millions and small condos were quite bubbly back in the days. Therefore, payback will come around.
Participant[quote=briansd1][quote=ocrenter]
But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.[/quote]I don’t agree on this. Those houses are functionally obsolete and before the bubble, they did not command that much of a premium over a new house inland. There will be an adjustment.
I don’t think that houses will drop much anymore because the world is awash in capital. Much of he world is peaceful and there is not much competition for capital these days. Central banks are pumping money into their economies.
I foresee a long period of stagnation for US housing with more choices for buyers. Proportional to income, housing will be cost less.[/quote]
I agree with the long term stagnation of the economy. But these homes, even though small and old, are the middle of the housing stock in places like PB. and I don’t see the middle moving all that much, primarily as these are SFRs.
Plus overall there simply wasn’t the amount of speculation in these homes back in the bubble days to supply large amount of “underwater” sellers needed to drop that segment of the market. What will simply happen is the owners will hold on and pass it on to their offsprings.
On the other hand, large new ultra-luxury homes in the millions and small condos were quite bubbly back in the days. Therefore, payback will come around.
-
AuthorPosts
