[ocrenter]

[quote=sdrealtor]FYI, Toll Brothers built in Encinitas Ranch mostly in 2002 and 2003. I beleive some may have been in 2004 also.[/quote]

so they probably purchased the land in 2001 or prior. and here they are buying land post-bubble. and bypassed on any land purchases at least in SD during the entire bubble peak. that’s a pretty amazing track record!

[ocrenter]

[quote=sdrealtor]FYI, Toll Brothers built in Encinitas Ranch mostly in 2002 and 2003. I beleive some may have been in 2004 also.[/quote]

so they probably purchased the land in 2001 or prior. and here they are buying land post-bubble. and bypassed on any land purchases at least in SD during the entire bubble peak. that’s a pretty amazing track record!

[ocrenter]

[quote=localguy]Scripps Preserve is complete. I’m sure when the economy tanked, all the builders took one step to the right and swapped lots. When they post their sign and bring in the sales trailer, that is when we find out.
Localguy[/quote]

I don’t recall Toll Bros being in SD at all during the peak years. Now per their website all of the sudden they have 4 developments in SD with 2 in Oside, 1 in Crosby, and 1 in Stonebridge. Certainly with their lot purchase price they should be able to overwhelm the competition.

for example, Montoro lots were bought during the peak at $550k. They just sold a 5000 sqft home for 880k, which means the builder probably got that 5000 sqft home up for less than 300k, or less than $60/sqft! what kind of @#%$%# home can you really be looking at with that type of construction cost?

on the other hand, Toll Bros would still be able to pull in $100k per home profit even if they spend $100/sqft building a 4500 sqft home and sell it for $900k. The construction quality should be significantly better than Montoro and be able to attract people away from Montoro.

[ocrenter]

[quote=localguy]Scripps Preserve is complete. I’m sure when the economy tanked, all the builders took one step to the right and swapped lots. When they post their sign and bring in the sales trailer, that is when we find out.
Localguy[/quote]

I don’t recall Toll Bros being in SD at all during the peak years. Now per their website all of the sudden they have 4 developments in SD with 2 in Oside, 1 in Crosby, and 1 in Stonebridge. Certainly with their lot purchase price they should be able to overwhelm the competition.

for example, Montoro lots were bought during the peak at $550k. They just sold a 5000 sqft home for 880k, which means the builder probably got that 5000 sqft home up for less than 300k, or less than $60/sqft! what kind of @#%$%# home can you really be looking at with that type of construction cost?

on the other hand, Toll Bros would still be able to pull in $100k per home profit even if they spend $100/sqft building a 4500 sqft home and sell it for $900k. The construction quality should be significantly better than Montoro and be able to attract people away from Montoro.

[ocrenter]

[quote=localguy]Scripps Preserve is complete. I’m sure when the economy tanked, all the builders took one step to the right and swapped lots. When they post their sign and bring in the sales trailer, that is when we find out.
Localguy[/quote]

I don’t recall Toll Bros being in SD at all during the peak years. Now per their website all of the sudden they have 4 developments in SD with 2 in Oside, 1 in Crosby, and 1 in Stonebridge. Certainly with their lot purchase price they should be able to overwhelm the competition.

for example, Montoro lots were bought during the peak at $550k. They just sold a 5000 sqft home for 880k, which means the builder probably got that 5000 sqft home up for less than 300k, or less than $60/sqft! what kind of @#%$%# home can you really be looking at with that type of construction cost?

on the other hand, Toll Bros would still be able to pull in $100k per home profit even if they spend $100/sqft building a 4500 sqft home and sell it for $900k. The construction quality should be significantly better than Montoro and be able to attract people away from Montoro.

[ocrenter]

[quote=localguy]Scripps Preserve is complete. I’m sure when the economy tanked, all the builders took one step to the right and swapped lots. When they post their sign and bring in the sales trailer, that is when we find out.
Localguy[/quote]

I don’t recall Toll Bros being in SD at all during the peak years. Now per their website all of the sudden they have 4 developments in SD with 2 in Oside, 1 in Crosby, and 1 in Stonebridge. Certainly with their lot purchase price they should be able to overwhelm the competition.

for example, Montoro lots were bought during the peak at $550k. They just sold a 5000 sqft home for 880k, which means the builder probably got that 5000 sqft home up for less than 300k, or less than $60/sqft! what kind of @#%$%# home can you really be looking at with that type of construction cost?

on the other hand, Toll Bros would still be able to pull in $100k per home profit even if they spend $100/sqft building a 4500 sqft home and sell it for $900k. The construction quality should be significantly better than Montoro and be able to attract people away from Montoro.

[ocrenter]

[quote=localguy]Scripps Preserve is complete. I’m sure when the economy tanked, all the builders took one step to the right and swapped lots. When they post their sign and bring in the sales trailer, that is when we find out.
Localguy[/quote]

I don’t recall Toll Bros being in SD at all during the peak years. Now per their website all of the sudden they have 4 developments in SD with 2 in Oside, 1 in Crosby, and 1 in Stonebridge. Certainly with their lot purchase price they should be able to overwhelm the competition.

for example, Montoro lots were bought during the peak at $550k. They just sold a 5000 sqft home for 880k, which means the builder probably got that 5000 sqft home up for less than 300k, or less than $60/sqft! what kind of @#%$%# home can you really be looking at with that type of construction cost?

on the other hand, Toll Bros would still be able to pull in $100k per home profit even if they spend $100/sqft building a 4500 sqft home and sell it for $900k. The construction quality should be significantly better than Montoro and be able to attract people away from Montoro.

[ocrenter]

Toll Brothers certainly has a reputation for building solid luxury homes. Looking at its other home offerings throughout SoCal, it looks like Toll is targeting the 900k price range. They’ll probably have the starting price at $899,995 or something so they can say they are starting in the “high 800ks.”

Given that Serenity from Brookfield has been able to sell at 900k to 1 million, Toll Bros should be able to do the same as well.

checking the property tax site, each lot is taxed at the assessed value of $358k. Assuming that’s the Toll Bros purchase price, this should pencil out for them.

question is can they sell all 71 homes before the interest rate start rising.

[ocrenter]

Toll Brothers certainly has a reputation for building solid luxury homes. Looking at its other home offerings throughout SoCal, it looks like Toll is targeting the 900k price range. They’ll probably have the starting price at $899,995 or something so they can say they are starting in the “high 800ks.”

Given that Serenity from Brookfield has been able to sell at 900k to 1 million, Toll Bros should be able to do the same as well.

checking the property tax site, each lot is taxed at the assessed value of $358k. Assuming that’s the Toll Bros purchase price, this should pencil out for them.

question is can they sell all 71 homes before the interest rate start rising.

[ocrenter]

Toll Brothers certainly has a reputation for building solid luxury homes. Looking at its other home offerings throughout SoCal, it looks like Toll is targeting the 900k price range. They’ll probably have the starting price at $899,995 or something so they can say they are starting in the “high 800ks.”

Given that Serenity from Brookfield has been able to sell at 900k to 1 million, Toll Bros should be able to do the same as well.

checking the property tax site, each lot is taxed at the assessed value of $358k. Assuming that’s the Toll Bros purchase price, this should pencil out for them.

question is can they sell all 71 homes before the interest rate start rising.

[ocrenter]

Toll Brothers certainly has a reputation for building solid luxury homes. Looking at its other home offerings throughout SoCal, it looks like Toll is targeting the 900k price range. They’ll probably have the starting price at $899,995 or something so they can say they are starting in the “high 800ks.”

Given that Serenity from Brookfield has been able to sell at 900k to 1 million, Toll Bros should be able to do the same as well.

checking the property tax site, each lot is taxed at the assessed value of $358k. Assuming that’s the Toll Bros purchase price, this should pencil out for them.

question is can they sell all 71 homes before the interest rate start rising.

[ocrenter]

Toll Brothers certainly has a reputation for building solid luxury homes. Looking at its other home offerings throughout SoCal, it looks like Toll is targeting the 900k price range. They’ll probably have the starting price at $899,995 or something so they can say they are starting in the “high 800ks.”

Given that Serenity from Brookfield has been able to sell at 900k to 1 million, Toll Bros should be able to do the same as well.

checking the property tax site, each lot is taxed at the assessed value of $358k. Assuming that’s the Toll Bros purchase price, this should pencil out for them.

question is can they sell all 71 homes before the interest rate start rising.

[ocrenter]

[quote=sdrealtor]ocr,
I cant resist as this is quite a departure from your prior position to “demand 1999 nominal pricing”. My times have changed.[/quote]

I said 2000 nominal or 1997 inflation adjusted.

what is quite interesting is if you adjust 2000 nominal pricing with the interest rate difference, even without using that income adjustment, you get a good adjustment as well.

for example, using the same example earlier purchased at $450k. we get $1800/month mortgage payment. but if we use nominal 2000 price of $290k but at 7.5% interest rate, we end up with $1620/month mortgage payment. slightly overshooting but very close to payment that most would consider a reasonable purchase price that is at rental cost.

one key issue ultimately is we had dramatic government intervention, including the exceptional interest rate, which helped prop up home prices. therefore, pre-government-intervention predictions need to be adjusted, either with Rich’s 50% income adjustment or the interest rate adjustment or combination of both. logically the combination does sound like the best approach imho.

BMIT was always a product of pragmatic fluid approach to the constantly changing market environment, the pricing prediction was never meant to stay as a permanent matrix. in fact, I did mention as well that the nominal 2000 pricing approach would only work for a short time period, with inflation adjusted pricing approach being more of a long term approach. as I mentioned with my earlier post, I very much am open to better approaches and do find Rich’s income adjustment a lot more.

[ocrenter]

[quote=sdrealtor]ocr,
I cant resist as this is quite a departure from your prior position to “demand 1999 nominal pricing”. My times have changed.[/quote]

I said 2000 nominal or 1997 inflation adjusted.

what is quite interesting is if you adjust 2000 nominal pricing with the interest rate difference, even without using that income adjustment, you get a good adjustment as well.

for example, using the same example earlier purchased at $450k. we get $1800/month mortgage payment. but if we use nominal 2000 price of $290k but at 7.5% interest rate, we end up with $1620/month mortgage payment. slightly overshooting but very close to payment that most would consider a reasonable purchase price that is at rental cost.

one key issue ultimately is we had dramatic government intervention, including the exceptional interest rate, which helped prop up home prices. therefore, pre-government-intervention predictions need to be adjusted, either with Rich’s 50% income adjustment or the interest rate adjustment or combination of both. logically the combination does sound like the best approach imho.

BMIT was always a product of pragmatic fluid approach to the constantly changing market environment, the pricing prediction was never meant to stay as a permanent matrix. in fact, I did mention as well that the nominal 2000 pricing approach would only work for a short time period, with inflation adjusted pricing approach being more of a long term approach. as I mentioned with my earlier post, I very much am open to better approaches and do find Rich’s income adjustment a lot more.

[ocrenter]

[quote=sdrealtor]ocr,
I cant resist as this is quite a departure from your prior position to “demand 1999 nominal pricing”. My times have changed.[/quote]

I said 2000 nominal or 1997 inflation adjusted.

what is quite interesting is if you adjust 2000 nominal pricing with the interest rate difference, even without using that income adjustment, you get a good adjustment as well.

for example, using the same example earlier purchased at $450k. we get $1800/month mortgage payment. but if we use nominal 2000 price of $290k but at 7.5% interest rate, we end up with $1620/month mortgage payment. slightly overshooting but very close to payment that most would consider a reasonable purchase price that is at rental cost.

one key issue ultimately is we had dramatic government intervention, including the exceptional interest rate, which helped prop up home prices. therefore, pre-government-intervention predictions need to be adjusted, either with Rich’s 50% income adjustment or the interest rate adjustment or combination of both. logically the combination does sound like the best approach imho.

BMIT was always a product of pragmatic fluid approach to the constantly changing market environment, the pricing prediction was never meant to stay as a permanent matrix. in fact, I did mention as well that the nominal 2000 pricing approach would only work for a short time period, with inflation adjusted pricing approach being more of a long term approach. as I mentioned with my earlier post, I very much am open to better approaches and do find Rich’s income adjustment a lot more.

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