[NotCranky]

My wife thinks it will be a good idea for us to save those rebate checks until peak garage sale season. I swear she has never read this blog!

[NotCranky]

One comment I have seen on this blog often is that houses will alway correct beyond the trendline. Thes graph that robson posted above seems to prove that. However, there are a few examples of it taking 20 years to do so and after many up and down movements in which inflation adjusted price did not go below the trend line. I am talking about the periods from 1890 to 1918 and 1945 to 1965.The last two cycles follow the immediate overcorrection idea. Obviously, there is currently room for a huge correction regardless of crossing or not crossing the trendline.

[NotCranky]

One comment I have seen on this blog often is that houses will alway correct beyond the trendline. Thes graph that robson posted above seems to prove that. However, there are a few examples of it taking 20 years to do so and after many up and down movements in which inflation adjusted price did not go below the trend line. I am talking about the periods from 1890 to 1918 and 1945 to 1965.The last two cycles follow the immediate overcorrection idea. Obviously, there is currently room for a huge correction regardless of crossing or not crossing the trendline.

[NotCranky]

One comment I have seen on this blog often is that houses will alway correct beyond the trendline. Thes graph that robson posted above seems to prove that. However, there are a few examples of it taking 20 years to do so and after many up and down movements in which inflation adjusted price did not go below the trend line. I am talking about the periods from 1890 to 1918 and 1945 to 1965.The last two cycles follow the immediate overcorrection idea. Obviously, there is currently room for a huge correction regardless of crossing or not crossing the trendline.

[NotCranky]

One comment I have seen on this blog often is that houses will alway correct beyond the trendline. Thes graph that robson posted above seems to prove that. However, there are a few examples of it taking 20 years to do so and after many up and down movements in which inflation adjusted price did not go below the trend line. I am talking about the periods from 1890 to 1918 and 1945 to 1965.The last two cycles follow the immediate overcorrection idea. Obviously, there is currently room for a huge correction regardless of crossing or not crossing the trendline.

[NotCranky]

One comment I have seen on this blog often is that houses will alway correct beyond the trendline. Thes graph that robson posted above seems to prove that. However, there are a few examples of it taking 20 years to do so and after many up and down movements in which inflation adjusted price did not go below the trend line. I am talking about the periods from 1890 to 1918 and 1945 to 1965.The last two cycles follow the immediate overcorrection idea. Obviously, there is currently room for a huge correction regardless of crossing or not crossing the trendline.

[NotCranky]

FLU

“So peering over some comps that I collected throughout the year. I would say (and realtors correct me if I’m wrong)

A good portion CV attached homes are at mid to end of 2003 prices.”

This is what it looks like to me. Your detached market has pretty much leveled with sometime in 2004. Anyway the median is for 2007 is now under that for 2004. It looks like you have a way to go to get back to any 2003 time frame, broadly speaking.

Attached median:
2000-274
2001-305
2002-350
2003- Jan through June 390k entire year 401k
4th qtr 420K
2004-520
2005-545
2006-480
2007-491

I know we don’t go crazy for the median but I looked at a sampling of individual model matches ,very un-scientifically and it works out too. It doesn’t seem like the inventory mix on condos would be affecting the median too much. I did some 2004&2003 model/price matches or near matches. 2003 and earlier prices will really be significant.

As far as distress. It is a tough call. Obviously some of the indicators are there . You have the auction, short sales and REO’s adding up. People selling who bought 1-2 years ago is not normal. The strongest indicator IMO is when you see several model match listings in same complex with really erratic pricing especially if the low price lead is an REO. I think I see a little of that on Pell if I squint hard but not nearly as much as was happening in complexes, say in El Cajon, that have imploded.Maybe a few months down the road.

Best case scenario, if you want to see those prices fall drastically in your neck of the woods, would be that it is at or nearing the proverbial “tipping” point. Like many have said, maybe there would have to be more of a catalyst due to the current financial strength or the owners.

EDIT: One day I think I will really learn what that thing Bugs says means, “prices are set at the margins” and throw out the idea that the current owners means and resolve will determine future prices.

Here is attached volume:
2000-399
2001-298
2002-365
2003-394
2004-328
2005-300
2006-240
2007-329

You might want to compare historical appreciation and subsequent depreciation on detached to see how attached and detached for CV compare on a percentage basis instead of a calendar basis.

[NotCranky]

FLU

“So peering over some comps that I collected throughout the year. I would say (and realtors correct me if I’m wrong)

A good portion CV attached homes are at mid to end of 2003 prices.”

This is what it looks like to me. Your detached market has pretty much leveled with sometime in 2004. Anyway the median is for 2007 is now under that for 2004. It looks like you have a way to go to get back to any 2003 time frame, broadly speaking.

Attached median:
2000-274
2001-305
2002-350
2003- Jan through June 390k entire year 401k
4th qtr 420K
2004-520
2005-545
2006-480
2007-491

I know we don’t go crazy for the median but I looked at a sampling of individual model matches ,very un-scientifically and it works out too. It doesn’t seem like the inventory mix on condos would be affecting the median too much. I did some 2004&2003 model/price matches or near matches. 2003 and earlier prices will really be significant.

As far as distress. It is a tough call. Obviously some of the indicators are there . You have the auction, short sales and REO’s adding up. People selling who bought 1-2 years ago is not normal. The strongest indicator IMO is when you see several model match listings in same complex with really erratic pricing especially if the low price lead is an REO. I think I see a little of that on Pell if I squint hard but not nearly as much as was happening in complexes, say in El Cajon, that have imploded.Maybe a few months down the road.

Best case scenario, if you want to see those prices fall drastically in your neck of the woods, would be that it is at or nearing the proverbial “tipping” point. Like many have said, maybe there would have to be more of a catalyst due to the current financial strength or the owners.

EDIT: One day I think I will really learn what that thing Bugs says means, “prices are set at the margins” and throw out the idea that the current owners means and resolve will determine future prices.

Here is attached volume:
2000-399
2001-298
2002-365
2003-394
2004-328
2005-300
2006-240
2007-329

You might want to compare historical appreciation and subsequent depreciation on detached to see how attached and detached for CV compare on a percentage basis instead of a calendar basis.

[NotCranky]

FLU

“So peering over some comps that I collected throughout the year. I would say (and realtors correct me if I’m wrong)

A good portion CV attached homes are at mid to end of 2003 prices.”

This is what it looks like to me. Your detached market has pretty much leveled with sometime in 2004. Anyway the median is for 2007 is now under that for 2004. It looks like you have a way to go to get back to any 2003 time frame, broadly speaking.

Attached median:
2000-274
2001-305
2002-350
2003- Jan through June 390k entire year 401k
4th qtr 420K
2004-520
2005-545
2006-480
2007-491

I know we don’t go crazy for the median but I looked at a sampling of individual model matches ,very un-scientifically and it works out too. It doesn’t seem like the inventory mix on condos would be affecting the median too much. I did some 2004&2003 model/price matches or near matches. 2003 and earlier prices will really be significant.

As far as distress. It is a tough call. Obviously some of the indicators are there . You have the auction, short sales and REO’s adding up. People selling who bought 1-2 years ago is not normal. The strongest indicator IMO is when you see several model match listings in same complex with really erratic pricing especially if the low price lead is an REO. I think I see a little of that on Pell if I squint hard but not nearly as much as was happening in complexes, say in El Cajon, that have imploded.Maybe a few months down the road.

Best case scenario, if you want to see those prices fall drastically in your neck of the woods, would be that it is at or nearing the proverbial “tipping” point. Like many have said, maybe there would have to be more of a catalyst due to the current financial strength or the owners.

EDIT: One day I think I will really learn what that thing Bugs says means, “prices are set at the margins” and throw out the idea that the current owners means and resolve will determine future prices.

Here is attached volume:
2000-399
2001-298
2002-365
2003-394
2004-328
2005-300
2006-240
2007-329

You might want to compare historical appreciation and subsequent depreciation on detached to see how attached and detached for CV compare on a percentage basis instead of a calendar basis.

[NotCranky]

FLU

“So peering over some comps that I collected throughout the year. I would say (and realtors correct me if I’m wrong)

A good portion CV attached homes are at mid to end of 2003 prices.”

This is what it looks like to me. Your detached market has pretty much leveled with sometime in 2004. Anyway the median is for 2007 is now under that for 2004. It looks like you have a way to go to get back to any 2003 time frame, broadly speaking.

Attached median:
2000-274
2001-305
2002-350
2003- Jan through June 390k entire year 401k
4th qtr 420K
2004-520
2005-545
2006-480
2007-491

I know we don’t go crazy for the median but I looked at a sampling of individual model matches ,very un-scientifically and it works out too. It doesn’t seem like the inventory mix on condos would be affecting the median too much. I did some 2004&2003 model/price matches or near matches. 2003 and earlier prices will really be significant.

As far as distress. It is a tough call. Obviously some of the indicators are there . You have the auction, short sales and REO’s adding up. People selling who bought 1-2 years ago is not normal. The strongest indicator IMO is when you see several model match listings in same complex with really erratic pricing especially if the low price lead is an REO. I think I see a little of that on Pell if I squint hard but not nearly as much as was happening in complexes, say in El Cajon, that have imploded.Maybe a few months down the road.

Best case scenario, if you want to see those prices fall drastically in your neck of the woods, would be that it is at or nearing the proverbial “tipping” point. Like many have said, maybe there would have to be more of a catalyst due to the current financial strength or the owners.

EDIT: One day I think I will really learn what that thing Bugs says means, “prices are set at the margins” and throw out the idea that the current owners means and resolve will determine future prices.

Here is attached volume:
2000-399
2001-298
2002-365
2003-394
2004-328
2005-300
2006-240
2007-329

You might want to compare historical appreciation and subsequent depreciation on detached to see how attached and detached for CV compare on a percentage basis instead of a calendar basis.

[NotCranky]

FLU

“So peering over some comps that I collected throughout the year. I would say (and realtors correct me if I’m wrong)

A good portion CV attached homes are at mid to end of 2003 prices.”

This is what it looks like to me. Your detached market has pretty much leveled with sometime in 2004. Anyway the median is for 2007 is now under that for 2004. It looks like you have a way to go to get back to any 2003 time frame, broadly speaking.

Attached median:
2000-274
2001-305
2002-350
2003- Jan through June 390k entire year 401k
4th qtr 420K
2004-520
2005-545
2006-480
2007-491

I know we don’t go crazy for the median but I looked at a sampling of individual model matches ,very un-scientifically and it works out too. It doesn’t seem like the inventory mix on condos would be affecting the median too much. I did some 2004&2003 model/price matches or near matches. 2003 and earlier prices will really be significant.

As far as distress. It is a tough call. Obviously some of the indicators are there . You have the auction, short sales and REO’s adding up. People selling who bought 1-2 years ago is not normal. The strongest indicator IMO is when you see several model match listings in same complex with really erratic pricing especially if the low price lead is an REO. I think I see a little of that on Pell if I squint hard but not nearly as much as was happening in complexes, say in El Cajon, that have imploded.Maybe a few months down the road.

Best case scenario, if you want to see those prices fall drastically in your neck of the woods, would be that it is at or nearing the proverbial “tipping” point. Like many have said, maybe there would have to be more of a catalyst due to the current financial strength or the owners.

EDIT: One day I think I will really learn what that thing Bugs says means, “prices are set at the margins” and throw out the idea that the current owners means and resolve will determine future prices.

Here is attached volume:
2000-399
2001-298
2002-365
2003-394
2004-328
2005-300
2006-240
2007-329

You might want to compare historical appreciation and subsequent depreciation on detached to see how attached and detached for CV compare on a percentage basis instead of a calendar basis.

[NotCranky]

Are you the real poway seller? LOL. Anyway. I like your preferences in neighborhoods. No offense to the CV people,of course.

[NotCranky]

Are you the real poway seller? LOL. Anyway. I like your preferences in neighborhoods. No offense to the CV people,of course.

[NotCranky]

Are you the real poway seller? LOL. Anyway. I like your preferences in neighborhoods. No offense to the CV people,of course.

[NotCranky]

Are you the real poway seller? LOL. Anyway. I like your preferences in neighborhoods. No offense to the CV people,of course.

[Author]

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