[NotCranky]

Your point is correct too alarmclock.However. Data does not a real estate market make. Why is that O.K.for us to claim that in 2005 but not 2008,9,10? Yeah the market stinks but it is starting to have potential. I bought a property in 2004 and my neigbor just bought the one next to me for nearly 3 times that. No no no, the data says that can’t happen.

[NotCranky]

Your point is correct too alarmclock.However. Data does not a real estate market make. Why is that O.K.for us to claim that in 2005 but not 2008,9,10? Yeah the market stinks but it is starting to have potential. I bought a property in 2004 and my neigbor just bought the one next to me for nearly 3 times that. No no no, the data says that can’t happen.

[NotCranky]

Your point is correct too alarmclock.However. Data does not a real estate market make. Why is that O.K.for us to claim that in 2005 but not 2008,9,10? Yeah the market stinks but it is starting to have potential. I bought a property in 2004 and my neigbor just bought the one next to me for nearly 3 times that. No no no, the data says that can’t happen.

[NotCranky]

Your point is correct too alarmclock.However. Data does not a real estate market make. Why is that O.K.for us to claim that in 2005 but not 2008,9,10? Yeah the market stinks but it is starting to have potential. I bought a property in 2004 and my neigbor just bought the one next to me for nearly 3 times that. No no no, the data says that can’t happen.

[NotCranky]

Wow. Rustico, I really value your posts, but I think you’re way off here.

Thanks woodrow. If I am way off, I think it is because I am not explaining things well. I am also pretty sure a few arguments I throw out are hopelessly wrong and should be round filed. Anyway, I am talking about targeting selective instances where value lies due to all this distress and where it can be created by lowballing sweat or some other form of enterprise. If I had more money I would be making offers but I am building another house and two garages if I can get permits. In some areas it is probably nearly zero houses that will not end up upside down or will cash flow now and in some they are trickling in or will be or could be forced by low ball offers to work. Not stuff everyone wants. But it gets better between here and the bottom. Unless we have have a meltdown.

My frame reference is 1992-1998, instincts and even a little math.
People did flip some houses successfully in this time frame or buy properties that never went upside down. Thousands bought properties that went up side down but never really faced what one would call duress. 1992 was 6 years from the bottom I bought a house that was joke to pay for and sold before the bottom for a profit. People here mostly are thinking anywhere from 2009-2013 or further and depending on the area. To 2013 is almost 6 years. Why can’t good deals happen now or soon?I am observing if and so are others on this blog(not just realtors) We already see condos and various mostly “undesirable” single family houses penciling out or getting close. That is what happened last time early on.

I am not convinced this bubble is a catastrophe and that things will be “different” this time. I am talking about making money in real estate not stepping into comfort or luxury. Not that there is anything wrong with that but it is pretty unaffordable right now apparently.I do wonder if that is where the disagreement comes from.

[NotCranky]

Wow. Rustico, I really value your posts, but I think you’re way off here.

Thanks woodrow. If I am way off, I think it is because I am not explaining things well. I am also pretty sure a few arguments I throw out are hopelessly wrong and should be round filed. Anyway, I am talking about targeting selective instances where value lies due to all this distress and where it can be created by lowballing sweat or some other form of enterprise. If I had more money I would be making offers but I am building another house and two garages if I can get permits. In some areas it is probably nearly zero houses that will not end up upside down or will cash flow now and in some they are trickling in or will be or could be forced by low ball offers to work. Not stuff everyone wants. But it gets better between here and the bottom. Unless we have have a meltdown.

My frame reference is 1992-1998, instincts and even a little math.
People did flip some houses successfully in this time frame or buy properties that never went upside down. Thousands bought properties that went up side down but never really faced what one would call duress. 1992 was 6 years from the bottom I bought a house that was joke to pay for and sold before the bottom for a profit. People here mostly are thinking anywhere from 2009-2013 or further and depending on the area. To 2013 is almost 6 years. Why can’t good deals happen now or soon?I am observing if and so are others on this blog(not just realtors) We already see condos and various mostly “undesirable” single family houses penciling out or getting close. That is what happened last time early on.

I am not convinced this bubble is a catastrophe and that things will be “different” this time. I am talking about making money in real estate not stepping into comfort or luxury. Not that there is anything wrong with that but it is pretty unaffordable right now apparently.I do wonder if that is where the disagreement comes from.

[NotCranky]

Wow. Rustico, I really value your posts, but I think you’re way off here.

Thanks woodrow. If I am way off, I think it is because I am not explaining things well. I am also pretty sure a few arguments I throw out are hopelessly wrong and should be round filed. Anyway, I am talking about targeting selective instances where value lies due to all this distress and where it can be created by lowballing sweat or some other form of enterprise. If I had more money I would be making offers but I am building another house and two garages if I can get permits. In some areas it is probably nearly zero houses that will not end up upside down or will cash flow now and in some they are trickling in or will be or could be forced by low ball offers to work. Not stuff everyone wants. But it gets better between here and the bottom. Unless we have have a meltdown.

My frame reference is 1992-1998, instincts and even a little math.
People did flip some houses successfully in this time frame or buy properties that never went upside down. Thousands bought properties that went up side down but never really faced what one would call duress. 1992 was 6 years from the bottom I bought a house that was joke to pay for and sold before the bottom for a profit. People here mostly are thinking anywhere from 2009-2013 or further and depending on the area. To 2013 is almost 6 years. Why can’t good deals happen now or soon?I am observing if and so are others on this blog(not just realtors) We already see condos and various mostly “undesirable” single family houses penciling out or getting close. That is what happened last time early on.

I am not convinced this bubble is a catastrophe and that things will be “different” this time. I am talking about making money in real estate not stepping into comfort or luxury. Not that there is anything wrong with that but it is pretty unaffordable right now apparently.I do wonder if that is where the disagreement comes from.

[NotCranky]

Wow. Rustico, I really value your posts, but I think you’re way off here.

Thanks woodrow. If I am way off, I think it is because I am not explaining things well. I am also pretty sure a few arguments I throw out are hopelessly wrong and should be round filed. Anyway, I am talking about targeting selective instances where value lies due to all this distress and where it can be created by lowballing sweat or some other form of enterprise. If I had more money I would be making offers but I am building another house and two garages if I can get permits. In some areas it is probably nearly zero houses that will not end up upside down or will cash flow now and in some they are trickling in or will be or could be forced by low ball offers to work. Not stuff everyone wants. But it gets better between here and the bottom. Unless we have have a meltdown.

My frame reference is 1992-1998, instincts and even a little math.
People did flip some houses successfully in this time frame or buy properties that never went upside down. Thousands bought properties that went up side down but never really faced what one would call duress. 1992 was 6 years from the bottom I bought a house that was joke to pay for and sold before the bottom for a profit. People here mostly are thinking anywhere from 2009-2013 or further and depending on the area. To 2013 is almost 6 years. Why can’t good deals happen now or soon?I am observing if and so are others on this blog(not just realtors) We already see condos and various mostly “undesirable” single family houses penciling out or getting close. That is what happened last time early on.

I am not convinced this bubble is a catastrophe and that things will be “different” this time. I am talking about making money in real estate not stepping into comfort or luxury. Not that there is anything wrong with that but it is pretty unaffordable right now apparently.I do wonder if that is where the disagreement comes from.

[NotCranky]

Wow. Rustico, I really value your posts, but I think you’re way off here.

Thanks woodrow. If I am way off, I think it is because I am not explaining things well. I am also pretty sure a few arguments I throw out are hopelessly wrong and should be round filed. Anyway, I am talking about targeting selective instances where value lies due to all this distress and where it can be created by lowballing sweat or some other form of enterprise. If I had more money I would be making offers but I am building another house and two garages if I can get permits. In some areas it is probably nearly zero houses that will not end up upside down or will cash flow now and in some they are trickling in or will be or could be forced by low ball offers to work. Not stuff everyone wants. But it gets better between here and the bottom. Unless we have have a meltdown.

My frame reference is 1992-1998, instincts and even a little math.
People did flip some houses successfully in this time frame or buy properties that never went upside down. Thousands bought properties that went up side down but never really faced what one would call duress. 1992 was 6 years from the bottom I bought a house that was joke to pay for and sold before the bottom for a profit. People here mostly are thinking anywhere from 2009-2013 or further and depending on the area. To 2013 is almost 6 years. Why can’t good deals happen now or soon?I am observing if and so are others on this blog(not just realtors) We already see condos and various mostly “undesirable” single family houses penciling out or getting close. That is what happened last time early on.

I am not convinced this bubble is a catastrophe and that things will be “different” this time. I am talking about making money in real estate not stepping into comfort or luxury. Not that there is anything wrong with that but it is pretty unaffordable right now apparently.I do wonder if that is where the disagreement comes from.

[NotCranky]

I am talking about the capable and willing not the priced out, pie in the sky, and/or supersmart unwilling. This isn’t the first real estate cycle I have ever lived through. I am not fixated on the bottom nor do I think it is necessary from a sound investment point of view. That is all I am trying to get across. Market timing aside, that 20k of inventory isn’t all unaffordable and some of it is going to sell at nominal prices lower than it will ever be again,this trend starts growing from now on out. I am not saying most buyers will not go upside down. It is a matter of number and degree though.Some will make out like bandits. The full market isn’t completely messed up any more unless we have a depression.

[NotCranky]

I am talking about the capable and willing not the priced out, pie in the sky, and/or supersmart unwilling. This isn’t the first real estate cycle I have ever lived through. I am not fixated on the bottom nor do I think it is necessary from a sound investment point of view. That is all I am trying to get across. Market timing aside, that 20k of inventory isn’t all unaffordable and some of it is going to sell at nominal prices lower than it will ever be again,this trend starts growing from now on out. I am not saying most buyers will not go upside down. It is a matter of number and degree though.Some will make out like bandits. The full market isn’t completely messed up any more unless we have a depression.

[NotCranky]

I am talking about the capable and willing not the priced out, pie in the sky, and/or supersmart unwilling. This isn’t the first real estate cycle I have ever lived through. I am not fixated on the bottom nor do I think it is necessary from a sound investment point of view. That is all I am trying to get across. Market timing aside, that 20k of inventory isn’t all unaffordable and some of it is going to sell at nominal prices lower than it will ever be again,this trend starts growing from now on out. I am not saying most buyers will not go upside down. It is a matter of number and degree though.Some will make out like bandits. The full market isn’t completely messed up any more unless we have a depression.

[NotCranky]

I am talking about the capable and willing not the priced out, pie in the sky, and/or supersmart unwilling. This isn’t the first real estate cycle I have ever lived through. I am not fixated on the bottom nor do I think it is necessary from a sound investment point of view. That is all I am trying to get across. Market timing aside, that 20k of inventory isn’t all unaffordable and some of it is going to sell at nominal prices lower than it will ever be again,this trend starts growing from now on out. I am not saying most buyers will not go upside down. It is a matter of number and degree though.Some will make out like bandits. The full market isn’t completely messed up any more unless we have a depression.

[NotCranky]

I am talking about the capable and willing not the priced out, pie in the sky, and/or supersmart unwilling. This isn’t the first real estate cycle I have ever lived through. I am not fixated on the bottom nor do I think it is necessary from a sound investment point of view. That is all I am trying to get across. Market timing aside, that 20k of inventory isn’t all unaffordable and some of it is going to sell at nominal prices lower than it will ever be again,this trend starts growing from now on out. I am not saying most buyers will not go upside down. It is a matter of number and degree though.Some will make out like bandits. The full market isn’t completely messed up any more unless we have a depression.

[NotCranky]

sdr I remember all that.That Josh gets pretty testy sometimes! Anyway, green light is on for making fun of me I don’t care and I deserve it. Put Jamul into it often so I can pitch it and steal some of your coastal clients. I am thinking of starting a Jamul thread and update with all kinds of bragging kind of stuff. I’ll dedicate it to you and Josh. People are going to be really sorry they didn’t buy in Jamul, in this bust, mark my words.

Whichever of us “gets it” first must help the other one “get it” by the way.

Best wishes.

[Author]

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