[NotCranky]

Maybe the “refied” or they took out a second and put someone new on the title and filed the assessor’s preliminary change of ownership, or whatever that piece of paper that you file is, inccorrectly? Something like that?

[NotCranky]

Maybe the “refied” or they took out a second and put someone new on the title and filed the assessor’s preliminary change of ownership, or whatever that piece of paper that you file is, inccorrectly? Something like that?

[NotCranky]

Bugs, Since all these properties were listed on the MLS why are the foreclosures(REO’S) taking proportionally much bigger hits? Is most of it due to the poor conditions of the property? Those kind of loses will pay for a lot of window screens, sod and paint. If it is caused by lender desperation then wouldn’t that be a good near term downside indicator especially with so many more foreclosures in the pipeline? I am trying to support or refute my theory that a big chunk of appreciation/equity is coming out of the market or will be very soon.
Thanks

[NotCranky]

Bugs, Since all these properties were listed on the MLS why are the foreclosures(REO’S) taking proportionally much bigger hits? Is most of it due to the poor conditions of the property? Those kind of loses will pay for a lot of window screens, sod and paint. If it is caused by lender desperation then wouldn’t that be a good near term downside indicator especially with so many more foreclosures in the pipeline? I am trying to support or refute my theory that a big chunk of appreciation/equity is coming out of the market or will be very soon.
Thanks

[NotCranky]

Perry,
I wrote out a long reply to you and dropped it.
In short your friend is probably on the right track. Hopefully it is a quality, relatively new building and he has a fixed loan. If so, it is a good starting point. Somebody else is building his nest egg and the cash flow will get better over time. If he does this well over time with more properties and the US Economy is relatively normal(including recessions and bubbles) for the next few decades he will make huge gains in equity and cash flow. I prefer SFR. Multi family has more potential but one has to start somewhere.

Next:
There is much more talk about International and out of area markets on the “Ben Jones Housing bubble blog”…WARNING wear a virtual hard hat in that zone!

[NotCranky]

Perry,
I wrote out a long reply to you and dropped it.
In short your friend is probably on the right track. Hopefully it is a quality, relatively new building and he has a fixed loan. If so, it is a good starting point. Somebody else is building his nest egg and the cash flow will get better over time. If he does this well over time with more properties and the US Economy is relatively normal(including recessions and bubbles) for the next few decades he will make huge gains in equity and cash flow. I prefer SFR. Multi family has more potential but one has to start somewhere.

Next:
There is much more talk about International and out of area markets on the “Ben Jones Housing bubble blog”…WARNING wear a virtual hard hat in that zone!

[NotCranky]

Thanks SD R
I want to see if the title co. will give me a “binder” on properties I might want to buy at auctions in the future.I stayed off the court house steps last time for fear of clouds on title.

I am going to have to find a property managers I can refer to that won’t work my clients. I don’t want to do property mangement all over town either and my clients are generally “all over town”.

BUGS
As always you make good points. I trust you as much as anyone here. We think the same things about the market and that makes me happy so it is O.K. if you keep me on track from time to time!
Thanks

[NotCranky]

Thanks SD R
I want to see if the title co. will give me a “binder” on properties I might want to buy at auctions in the future.I stayed off the court house steps last time for fear of clouds on title.

I am going to have to find a property managers I can refer to that won’t work my clients. I don’t want to do property mangement all over town either and my clients are generally “all over town”.

BUGS
As always you make good points. I trust you as much as anyone here. We think the same things about the market and that makes me happy so it is O.K. if you keep me on track from time to time!
Thanks

[NotCranky]

SDR devils advocate here. Since the last trough we have had some years of 30% appreciation interspersed with mostly relatively more moderate years. Why do you rule out the potential for drops bigger than 10% per year? On another thread I gave an example of a place that is already at 38% of the purcahse price and that was a market sale that occurred well before what people typically call the peak. It is in an outlying area and I doubt it is what anyone here wants but if it can happen there I am of the opinion it can happen here adn I have a educated hunch that it is about to.Also, although the revisonist history of the 1991 bubble burst doesn’t show it, the market did in fact implode for the most part.I don’t buy that “long and slow” has been reasoned out here yet?
I have been working my title contacts over about easements lately. That’s a pain. I have never asked them about forclosure data. Do they give you addresses and loan information or just tallies? I am sure they
can give you that information but do they give it to you for all foreclosures in the county just like that?

Another thing people might want to take into consideration on this blog is how long ago the last bust was. Even Realtors that were working back then have to adjust to this market. For many Realtors it is the first time dealing with a down cycle. I would imagine that most the people that don’t have the integrity and skill to deal with a down cycle have already left the business or will be leaving soon.
One more question, Do you do property mangement?

[NotCranky]

SDR devils advocate here. Since the last trough we have had some years of 30% appreciation interspersed with mostly relatively more moderate years. Why do you rule out the potential for drops bigger than 10% per year? On another thread I gave an example of a place that is already at 38% of the purcahse price and that was a market sale that occurred well before what people typically call the peak. It is in an outlying area and I doubt it is what anyone here wants but if it can happen there I am of the opinion it can happen here adn I have a educated hunch that it is about to.Also, although the revisonist history of the 1991 bubble burst doesn’t show it, the market did in fact implode for the most part.I don’t buy that “long and slow” has been reasoned out here yet?
I have been working my title contacts over about easements lately. That’s a pain. I have never asked them about forclosure data. Do they give you addresses and loan information or just tallies? I am sure they
can give you that information but do they give it to you for all foreclosures in the county just like that?

Another thing people might want to take into consideration on this blog is how long ago the last bust was. Even Realtors that were working back then have to adjust to this market. For many Realtors it is the first time dealing with a down cycle. I would imagine that most the people that don’t have the integrity and skill to deal with a down cycle have already left the business or will be leaving soon.
One more question, Do you do property mangement?

[NotCranky]

But I still think “starter home” is insulting

I agree. For me it is insulting in that it is potentially manipulative not in what it may or may not describe. Thanks for bringing it up.

[NotCranky]

But I still think “starter home” is insulting

I agree. For me it is insulting in that it is potentially manipulative not in what it may or may not describe. Thanks for bringing it up.

[NotCranky]

Yours truly has never owned anything more than a “starter car” I can buy any car I want and I am proud of my history of car ownership . Why would it be any different with a house?I mean other than the fact that we live in a material things equal status kind of a world? The term starter home bothers me in that it describes nothing.What is a starter home for mechanic? For a young doctor or lawyer? As Drunkle points out the term assumes that you must be dissatified there until you get the move up home and that you are a failure if you get stuck there.Maybe the most affordable houses in any neighborhood should be called houses for the smart and frugal?
Best wishes

[NotCranky]

Yours truly has never owned anything more than a “starter car” I can buy any car I want and I am proud of my history of car ownership . Why would it be any different with a house?I mean other than the fact that we live in a material things equal status kind of a world? The term starter home bothers me in that it describes nothing.What is a starter home for mechanic? For a young doctor or lawyer? As Drunkle points out the term assumes that you must be dissatified there until you get the move up home and that you are a failure if you get stuck there.Maybe the most affordable houses in any neighborhood should be called houses for the smart and frugal?
Best wishes

[NotCranky]

SDR I am not really concerned about the preciseness of the numbers on foreclosures.
Just so you know I appreciate the way you are handling the scrutiny about selling. I have a client who wants to sell and buy, so on the one hand I am telling them about the problems of waiting(to sell) and the problems with jumping in (to buy)! I thought about something after reading your response to JWM. If the really “bearish” guys like me are wrong our reputation for being savy Realtors gets creamed, not to mention we will have squandered lots of business. So it makes sense that a Realtor would not go too far out on a limb for self preservation resons. I am sticking to my guns but I think I will get more open to the clients we have been talking about who just want to or are somewhere in the process of making a house swap. Average first time buyers need really strong counseling towards being patient and getting themselves in the best position the can be in. The risk is, and it has happened to me over and over,that they just go buy with someone else. I am learning to counsel people without losing them and I am getting a list of buyer clients that will be loyal to me when ever they buy.

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