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NotCranky
ParticipantFormer,
Do I under stand you correctly? You are saying SFR’s are overpriced by 45%-50% but will only go down 12% and that non-crash will be done in a few years?Maybe this is worth noting.Since we are all guessing about the future anyway.
Using just your median trace on the graph you provided. I noticed that the 89′ bubble approximately got off the trend by 50%-100%. This bubble got off the median trend by 200% or more.For the first it looks like the correction was about %20 nominal when it bottomed…So it seems this bottom could easily be 45-50% nominal at what ever point in time it hits a trough, or 300k whereas your graph takes us to approximately 400k-450k depending on the 4%or 6% line. Are you not anticipating it swing past?
I’m not trying to be smart just get smart. NTIIWA but I have been pretty good at speculation regarding peaks and troughs even when I was completely lacking in the more formal education I am getting here. I think that collectively we will nail the next bottom if we stay on the blog, Ah!That’s stupid we will never agree on anything.
ParticipantFormer,
Do I under stand you correctly? You are saying SFR’s are overpriced by 45%-50% but will only go down 12% and that non-crash will be done in a few years?Maybe this is worth noting.Since we are all guessing about the future anyway.
Using just your median trace on the graph you provided. I noticed that the 89′ bubble approximately got off the trend by 50%-100%. This bubble got off the median trend by 200% or more.For the first it looks like the correction was about %20 nominal when it bottomed…So it seems this bottom could easily be 45-50% nominal at what ever point in time it hits a trough, or 300k whereas your graph takes us to approximately 400k-450k depending on the 4%or 6% line. Are you not anticipating it swing past?
I’m not trying to be smart just get smart. NTIIWA but I have been pretty good at speculation regarding peaks and troughs even when I was completely lacking in the more formal education I am getting here. I think that collectively we will nail the next bottom if we stay on the blog, Ah!That’s stupid we will never agree on anything.
ParticipantI never ever believed that a family home can not or should not be an investment. In fact I am suspicious of that talk. As in “don’t worry about high prices of homes I am trying to sell you because it is not an investment.” In the rear view mirror after one’s has a house free and clear it sure is comfortable to say my home is not an investment, And I am not challenging anyone in particular on this point.But while at it I will go on.If my house changes my ability to prosper especially when I am young,it is an investment and a bad one. I still feel that my personal home’could be looked at as a dormant investment tool,even though it is paid for , because it is more than suffices for shelter and there are opportunity costs associated with not spreading the value of it out into income or equity producing avenues.So it’s either a “luxury” or a bad investment in a depreciating market.IMHO
ParticipantI never ever believed that a family home can not or should not be an investment. In fact I am suspicious of that talk. As in “don’t worry about high prices of homes I am trying to sell you because it is not an investment.” In the rear view mirror after one’s has a house free and clear it sure is comfortable to say my home is not an investment, And I am not challenging anyone in particular on this point.But while at it I will go on.If my house changes my ability to prosper especially when I am young,it is an investment and a bad one. I still feel that my personal home’could be looked at as a dormant investment tool,even though it is paid for , because it is more than suffices for shelter and there are opportunity costs associated with not spreading the value of it out into income or equity producing avenues.So it’s either a “luxury” or a bad investment in a depreciating market.IMHO
Participantsdr
You are a pretty well to do established man …Your parameter are pertty different from so many of the younger guys here. As far as being in Judgement as Chris points out I think the few are really Judgemental and the rest of us are putting stuff out there and getting feedback and learning. I think you agree sdr?I think there are different strategies for different times as much as there are for different people.
I think in a market taking off, leverage is good so as not to tie up too much capital in one spot(for us capital deficient types. In a declining market leverage seems like a bad position to me especially on a Family Home for people who don’t have extremely deep pockets. I say this believing the RE is easy to time you pay for it with poor liquidity.I don’t think Chris thinks RE is easy to time….Or he is so wealthy he doesn’t care.Being that he is such an expert on other markets maybe it’s a little of both?
Participantsdr
You are a pretty well to do established man …Your parameter are pertty different from so many of the younger guys here. As far as being in Judgement as Chris points out I think the few are really Judgemental and the rest of us are putting stuff out there and getting feedback and learning. I think you agree sdr?I think there are different strategies for different times as much as there are for different people.
I think in a market taking off, leverage is good so as not to tie up too much capital in one spot(for us capital deficient types. In a declining market leverage seems like a bad position to me especially on a Family Home for people who don’t have extremely deep pockets. I say this believing the RE is easy to time you pay for it with poor liquidity.I don’t think Chris thinks RE is easy to time….Or he is so wealthy he doesn’t care.Being that he is such an expert on other markets maybe it’s a little of both?
ParticipantIn Forest Gump voice:
Cy, Send me the bill for the coffee. We can talk about the donuts. We will play a little basketball just so that you know I am your friend.I might even let you win.Stick around, then you just call me when you are ready to get back into that 2M market. I will drive out of the ghetto I live in and I will find you something “special” near the water!
Your kindred spirit,
RusticoParticipantIn Forest Gump voice:
Cy, Send me the bill for the coffee. We can talk about the donuts. We will play a little basketball just so that you know I am your friend.I might even let you win.Stick around, then you just call me when you are ready to get back into that 2M market. I will drive out of the ghetto I live in and I will find you something “special” near the water!
Your kindred spirit,
RusticoParticipantYes JG I did write that with the understanding that “Cristian” means “christ like” not “religious” …”christ like” as in compassionate. Anyway you are being a good sport with the “Hail Mary” and all…I’ll say the “lords prayer” a couple of times for both of us! Now youv’e got me reverting to my schizmatic days where I was hung up between religion and reality.
Best wishesParticipantYes JG I did write that with the understanding that “Cristian” means “christ like” not “religious” …”christ like” as in compassionate. Anyway you are being a good sport with the “Hail Mary” and all…I’ll say the “lords prayer” a couple of times for both of us! Now youv’e got me reverting to my schizmatic days where I was hung up between religion and reality.
Best wishesParticipantBugs was your $300k bottom figure for RB or the county?
ThanksParticipantBugs was your $300k bottom figure for RB or the county?
ThanksParticipantsdr,
If you sold, the temptation time the market woudln’t affect you at all? I’d take a big chance that the “2 for 1” sale was coming to a zip code near me!Participantsdr,
If you sold, the temptation time the market woudln’t affect you at all? I’d take a big chance that the “2 for 1” sale was coming to a zip code near me! -
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