[NotCranky]

“R,
Sounds like you are back on the Big Chunk side aftera brief period of uncertainty”

Actually my comments reflecting “uncertainty” are more of a reflection of trying ot debate “politely”. If I understand “polite” debate, one component is that you insert the other guys insights and opinions into your commentary somehow. I think I got a little too polite once by saying you guys “have me on the fence”. Now I understand why people are reluctant to do that.If you follow my trail after the politenesses you will always see where I have stood.That said my buddy Cy is in the slow camp along with a few others like yourself so why should I get hostile about it? There is always religion, Bush or the wars to get hostile about(in some other forum)unless JG comes back.

[NotCranky]

“R,
Sounds like you are back on the Big Chunk side aftera brief period of uncertainty”

Actually my comments reflecting “uncertainty” are more of a reflection of trying ot debate “politely”. If I understand “polite” debate, one component is that you insert the other guys insights and opinions into your commentary somehow. I think I got a little too polite once by saying you guys “have me on the fence”. Now I understand why people are reluctant to do that.If you follow my trail after the politenesses you will always see where I have stood.That said my buddy Cy is in the slow camp along with a few others like yourself so why should I get hostile about it? There is always religion, Bush or the wars to get hostile about(in some other forum)unless JG comes back.

[NotCranky]

“Sounds like the only thing you you missed out on was shorting the stock market starting about a year ago. As I recall there were some folks on this board calling for a huge decline in stocks starting at that time.”

It seems like the guys that shorted big indexes got disected and those that disected did pretty good?

[NotCranky]

“Sounds like the only thing you you missed out on was shorting the stock market starting about a year ago. As I recall there were some folks on this board calling for a huge decline in stocks starting at that time.”

It seems like the guys that shorted big indexes got disected and those that disected did pretty good?

[NotCranky]

“Sounds like the only thing you you missed out on was shorting the stock market starting about a year ago. As I recall there were some folks on this board calling for a huge decline in stocks starting at that time.”

It seems like the guys that shorted big indexes got disected and those that disected did pretty good?

[NotCranky]

Hard to believe sdrealtor created this thread only two months ago.

I think we had concerns about credit contractions at the time but I don’t believe anyone spelled it out quite as it has occurred. Sales volume and inventory are pretty much tracking expectations. What evidence do we have of REO price slashing? Other catalyst for a “Big Chunk” to be ripped out or on the other hand support for a rationale of slow decline ,3%-4%, per calendar year?

I am definately not any less in the big chunk mode(10% in six months,nearer to 20% in a calendar year startin in june 2007). I wouldn’t stipulate that the median would reflect it, only that we could provide vast sales representative of those kinds of of declines occuring fairly broadly in the county. Condo conversions in some areas are definately a done deal for that. We have sporadic examples of detached SFR’s,which sometimes are rightly or wrongly concluded as fraud.

Does anyone want to weigh in anew?

[NotCranky]

Hard to believe sdrealtor created this thread only two months ago.

I think we had concerns about credit contractions at the time but I don’t believe anyone spelled it out quite as it has occurred. Sales volume and inventory are pretty much tracking expectations. What evidence do we have of REO price slashing? Other catalyst for a “Big Chunk” to be ripped out or on the other hand support for a rationale of slow decline ,3%-4%, per calendar year?

I am definately not any less in the big chunk mode(10% in six months,nearer to 20% in a calendar year startin in june 2007). I wouldn’t stipulate that the median would reflect it, only that we could provide vast sales representative of those kinds of of declines occuring fairly broadly in the county. Condo conversions in some areas are definately a done deal for that. We have sporadic examples of detached SFR’s,which sometimes are rightly or wrongly concluded as fraud.

Does anyone want to weigh in anew?

[NotCranky]

Hard to believe sdrealtor created this thread only two months ago.

I think we had concerns about credit contractions at the time but I don’t believe anyone spelled it out quite as it has occurred. Sales volume and inventory are pretty much tracking expectations. What evidence do we have of REO price slashing? Other catalyst for a “Big Chunk” to be ripped out or on the other hand support for a rationale of slow decline ,3%-4%, per calendar year?

I am definately not any less in the big chunk mode(10% in six months,nearer to 20% in a calendar year startin in june 2007). I wouldn’t stipulate that the median would reflect it, only that we could provide vast sales representative of those kinds of of declines occuring fairly broadly in the county. Condo conversions in some areas are definately a done deal for that. We have sporadic examples of detached SFR’s,which sometimes are rightly or wrongly concluded as fraud.

Does anyone want to weigh in anew?

[NotCranky]

I thought I was an old Dad! You say you got one in diapers :). Just teasing you my friend. I was once congratulated on becoming a grandfather when I took my newborn out for a walk…and that was for the first or three!
My cane must have given me away. Hard to operate the cane and the stroller at the same time.

[NotCranky]

I thought I was an old Dad! You say you got one in diapers :). Just teasing you my friend. I was once congratulated on becoming a grandfather when I took my newborn out for a walk…and that was for the first or three!
My cane must have given me away. Hard to operate the cane and the stroller at the same time.

[NotCranky]

I thought I was an old Dad! You say you got one in diapers :). Just teasing you my friend. I was once congratulated on becoming a grandfather when I took my newborn out for a walk…and that was for the first or three!
My cane must have given me away. Hard to operate the cane and the stroller at the same time.

[NotCranky]

The returns on housing have historically been so great because of the levera”ge and tax benefits associated with that leverage.”

sdr, Thanks for reminding me. I am recalling the last ten years and what those little down payments did since 1997.

From Patient,
“sdr, leverage only increases the return as long as lenders agree to charge less (after tax) than the rate of (after tax) increase in home prices.”

Patient Renter, If I understand you the paragraph below applies, if I don’t perhaps you could explain?

Interest rates don’t affect the appreciation outcome in an isolated fashion like that. As long as your fixed mortgage and costs are near ,at or less than what you would be paying for rent all appreciation and the tax benefits are gains regardless of the rate on the mortgage. As time goes by the mortgage(fixed) generally becomes progressively cheaper than rent ,principal gets paid down, appreciation at some rate is applied and viola the miracle of home ownership is in full gear.All these benefits can be aquired with no or little capital. Of course if the real market value is depreciating you are losing money and suffering opportunity costs as the wealth goes up in smoke, but any savings against rent and taxes,again regardless of the rate, off sets the depreciation.

Disclaimer: I am not saying anyone is throwing away money by renting right now.

[NotCranky]

The returns on housing have historically been so great because of the levera”ge and tax benefits associated with that leverage.”

sdr, Thanks for reminding me. I am recalling the last ten years and what those little down payments did since 1997.

From Patient,
“sdr, leverage only increases the return as long as lenders agree to charge less (after tax) than the rate of (after tax) increase in home prices.”

Patient Renter, If I understand you the paragraph below applies, if I don’t perhaps you could explain?

Interest rates don’t affect the appreciation outcome in an isolated fashion like that. As long as your fixed mortgage and costs are near ,at or less than what you would be paying for rent all appreciation and the tax benefits are gains regardless of the rate on the mortgage. As time goes by the mortgage(fixed) generally becomes progressively cheaper than rent ,principal gets paid down, appreciation at some rate is applied and viola the miracle of home ownership is in full gear.All these benefits can be aquired with no or little capital. Of course if the real market value is depreciating you are losing money and suffering opportunity costs as the wealth goes up in smoke, but any savings against rent and taxes,again regardless of the rate, off sets the depreciation.

Disclaimer: I am not saying anyone is throwing away money by renting right now.

[NotCranky]

The returns on housing have historically been so great because of the levera”ge and tax benefits associated with that leverage.”

sdr, Thanks for reminding me. I am recalling the last ten years and what those little down payments did since 1997.

From Patient,
“sdr, leverage only increases the return as long as lenders agree to charge less (after tax) than the rate of (after tax) increase in home prices.”

Patient Renter, If I understand you the paragraph below applies, if I don’t perhaps you could explain?

Interest rates don’t affect the appreciation outcome in an isolated fashion like that. As long as your fixed mortgage and costs are near ,at or less than what you would be paying for rent all appreciation and the tax benefits are gains regardless of the rate on the mortgage. As time goes by the mortgage(fixed) generally becomes progressively cheaper than rent ,principal gets paid down, appreciation at some rate is applied and viola the miracle of home ownership is in full gear.All these benefits can be aquired with no or little capital. Of course if the real market value is depreciating you are losing money and suffering opportunity costs as the wealth goes up in smoke, but any savings against rent and taxes,again regardless of the rate, off sets the depreciation.

Disclaimer: I am not saying anyone is throwing away money by renting right now.

[NotCranky]

Hello Cy, Good to see you come around!

[Author]

Posts