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I meandered through Portola Springs in Irvine last weekend. Hit many of the developments. Looked at the maps, asked about the build outs. Was a bit surprised at how much emphasis was put future phases being “planned” and “future” and dancing around committing to build has their diagrams show.

It wasn’t ‘that’s Phase II’ or ‘we’re expecting to open that section in May’ definitely avoiding build-out commitments.

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SDR, I would agree, however, historically, it is that high and there was a reason for it.

We’ll get there again, but as you said, right no, buying REO has a sexiness to it, when they’re done shearing the sheep, REOs will go back to being business as usual.

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I thought REOs didn’t need the same disclosures are regularly sold houses. A greater discount is needed to cover the uncertainty and lack recourse in the event of major issues or patch camoflaged repairs.

In non-REOs are going for $550K, then $430-$450K is about right for dealing with the REO.

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Think of the bright side though, someone, somewhere, is actually buying the loans they’ve underwritten.

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Interesting, it’s removed by auto-moderators, can anybody that saw it identify why it would be flagged down by the craigslist users?

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Drivel. Targeted at a readership that is looking to blame anybody but the person standing in the mirror looking back.

Borrowers are to blame unless their broker defrauded them in their loan. Otherwise, the appraiser, did THEIR bidding. The Agent, showed them a way to do what THEY wanted to do. The lender, gave THEM the rope. And frankly in 99.9% of the cases, the broker, gave THEM exactly what they wanted which was a $450 payment for every $150,000 borrowed.

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And, as the article suggests, it would appear that more than a few ABS servicing agreements allow for a some flexibility where modifications are concerned

I’m sure they do, but I suspect by modification, what the servicers and industry really mean is what happened to Ms. Rodriguez in referenced articles about the Mod Squad.

Call me a cynic, but what I see is pretty simple,

1. they’re giving the borrower 2 to 3 extra months to get their act together and pay the bill and penalities.

2. they’re refinancing a loan with 28 years left back into a new 30 year loan (if equity level warrents it)

3. they’re delaying the foreclosure to get their (the bank’s) act together for foreclosures.

AFAICT, loan modification really means line 1, which is literally just a couple extra months to suck it up and pay the bill.

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Any chance of a link to the article. A quick scan of Google doesn’t find it.

Not sure what to make of the article but… Foreclosures will undoubtedly increase significantly, in our view, but modifications should attenuate the magnitude and change the timing.

Also not sure how much leeway the servicers have in turning the ABS bundles into underperforming assets. Somewhere, someone is holding a bond backed by hard assets and they’re expecting a certain cashflow every month for it.

They know they funded a 100 people with the knowledge that two wouldn’t pay this year and tow more wouldn’t pay next year, but the rest will pay and those that didn’t will get their house liquidated for 70 cents on the dollar and as a investor, you get your money. I don’t see the math working out for modification in more 1 or 2%

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The information you want is in the American Fact Finder surveys conducted by the census bereau yearly.

Select by principle city, then the MSA (metro-stat-area)

Table C19001 provide household income breakdown. Here is Ontario and Temecula

You can see that Ontario only has about 10% of the households making over $100K, Temecula has about 25%.

Table B19037 provides the same household income information broken down by age groups. It’s the second table in the above link.

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they do all the talking and I just sit back with a vacuum and a drill in my mouth.

One grunt == agreement.

two grunts == disagreement.

Grunt twice and wait for the drill to either come out or ‘slip’.

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I wouldn’t worry too much about this, at best its only going to save those that are only marginally over-leveraged

It won’t do that. The one example they had in the article involved the couple getting a better job, making the past due payment including penalties and then refiancing into a loan that had 8% higher payments than the one they got in trouble with which had 25% higher payments than their original loan because they’d refi’d money.

Will the banks refi you from $1200 to $1500 and then $1600 after you had a couple month problem, paid all the payments and penalties? hell yes! If this is what the “mod squad” does, wait a month or two to see if the owners can suck it up, they aren’t going to make a dent.

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I’ve posted on this before. In north County, particularly La Costa, average teacher salary is $60-$65K.

http://tsa.hiddengap.org/schools.php?district=37735510000000

A too public servant family (teacher, police, firefighter,etc.) easily makes $130-$170K a year.

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Like that last loan profiled from New Century. No wonder they’re BK.

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I wonder if most people realize the “premanently high plateau” is actually, that kind of flat part way down that you’re looking towards the end.

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Overall it’s looking like 25% down in the attached market and 28% in the detached market.

I realize it could swing dramatically, but I chuckle everytime I hear talking heads talking about the improvement cause volume is only down in the teens or single digits from 2006.

That’s nice, but 2006 was down a pretty consistent 30% from 2005.

So being down 28% on top of being down 30% from the prior year lobs you in at literally 1/2 of the volume from March 2005.

It won’t be long now, they’ll talk about the resurging market since volume is up 5% YOY, but that of course will still leave us down 25%-40% from 2005.

Actually, I’ll stand corrected by myself. I just rechecked the volume numbers from SignOn.

For SFRs in July, Central SD had the following:
758 – 2004
602 – 2005
463 – 2006

North Coastal in July had:
580 – 2004
455 – 2005
293 – 2006

North Coastal was at half bubble volume last summer! April shows the same volume collapse. March has a change in data format, but it appears March 04-’05 was flat.

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