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no_such_reality
ParticipantStartingout, move to the OC. You can find apartments in the nicer areas for $1400 for a 2/2. Why live in the IE when you can live in the OC for the same price.
ParticipantStartingout, move to the OC. You can find apartments in the nicer areas for $1400 for a 2/2. Why live in the IE when you can live in the OC for the same price.
June 8, 2007 at 8:54 AM in reply to: So I’m curious. How do you usually vote? Financially or Socially? #57869Participantso I vote for fiscal conservatives that are socially liberal, mainly a Libertarian point of view
Ditto.
That said, I tend sway based on which front is being messed up more. Sadly, I often find myself voting the lessor of two evils.
June 8, 2007 at 8:54 AM in reply to: So I’m curious. How do you usually vote? Financially or Socially? #57894Participantso I vote for fiscal conservatives that are socially liberal, mainly a Libertarian point of view
Ditto.
That said, I tend sway based on which front is being messed up more. Sadly, I often find myself voting the lessor of two evils.
ParticipantThe dow moves 100 points and everybody freaks out. It’s noise. The dow was at 13,700. That 300 drop is less than 3%. That 3% drop is after a massive run-up. It’s a highly liquid market.
ParticipantThe dow moves 100 points and everybody freaks out. It’s noise. The dow was at 13,700. That 300 drop is less than 3%. That 3% drop is after a massive run-up. It’s a highly liquid market.
ParticipantMore anecdotal information but single family rentals dont seem to be declining and good ones are very difficult to find in good areas.
If it’s like OC, those too will fall. Vacancy hasn’t caught up with supply. I did another run through open houses last weekend, still seeing 80% sitting empty rates.
As the empties and REOs come back to the rental market, vacancy will rise and rents will sag.
ParticipantMore anecdotal information but single family rentals dont seem to be declining and good ones are very difficult to find in good areas.
If it’s like OC, those too will fall. Vacancy hasn’t caught up with supply. I did another run through open houses last weekend, still seeing 80% sitting empty rates.
As the empties and REOs come back to the rental market, vacancy will rise and rents will sag.
ParticipantIs there a chart here that Rich or someone else has made comparing affordability now to historical affordability.
Rich did it here. The links are from the top of the welcome page.
Bubblebuster has their regular update which includes payment charts here.
What you see is the bubble payment to income ratio rivals the late 70s when inflation was double digit. You also see that payment to income is above 50% where as in the 87-91 bubble it peaked just above 40%.
ParticipantIs there a chart here that Rich or someone else has made comparing affordability now to historical affordability.
Rich did it here. The links are from the top of the welcome page.
Bubblebuster has their regular update which includes payment charts here.
What you see is the bubble payment to income ratio rivals the late 70s when inflation was double digit. You also see that payment to income is above 50% where as in the 87-91 bubble it peaked just above 40%.
ParticipantI’m seeing a long medium slide of 4-8% in the median. That’ll in reality reflect a 10% or so drop in like for like that trickle down year after year. Median will move down slowly, because as prices slide, they’ll by better for more, but less than the junk they could’ve bought at peak.
The primary problem I see is buyers will sit tight that have equity and must sell owners will quickly become can’t sell owners because they can’t bring the money to the table and can’t get a short-sale.
That “must sell” home first sits as a wishing price, then as late mortgage, then NOD, then NOT, then eviction, then vacant REO and eventually rehits the market a year later. Just to turn another must sell owner into a can’t sell owner.
I see a very illiquid market ahead if we get the spring fizzle to turn into a fall flop. Prices are holding, inventory is dropping, but sales volume is still dropping. That means sellers are giving up selling and trying to hunker down.
The prices will then set by a owner that bought in 2000, with a fixed loan they can afford, that wants to move and looks out at a world of REOs.
Unlike the 90s, streamlined refis to save an FB will be difficult. When rates are going from 10% to 8%, taking a loan at 10% with 27 years left and turning it into a new 30 year at 8.5% is easy to do to prevent a default. Doing the same when the homeowner had a 3% teaser with rates at 5.5% when rates are going from 6.5 to possible 7-8% range, doesn’t give the owner payment relief.
Other than our Congress, who will be willing to take below Treasury yield returns with more risk? Possibly the Chinese, if they can keep the bubble inflated, they can keep us buying junk, which is the bulk their economy. That’s a long shot though.
ParticipantI’m seeing a long medium slide of 4-8% in the median. That’ll in reality reflect a 10% or so drop in like for like that trickle down year after year. Median will move down slowly, because as prices slide, they’ll by better for more, but less than the junk they could’ve bought at peak.
The primary problem I see is buyers will sit tight that have equity and must sell owners will quickly become can’t sell owners because they can’t bring the money to the table and can’t get a short-sale.
That “must sell” home first sits as a wishing price, then as late mortgage, then NOD, then NOT, then eviction, then vacant REO and eventually rehits the market a year later. Just to turn another must sell owner into a can’t sell owner.
I see a very illiquid market ahead if we get the spring fizzle to turn into a fall flop. Prices are holding, inventory is dropping, but sales volume is still dropping. That means sellers are giving up selling and trying to hunker down.
The prices will then set by a owner that bought in 2000, with a fixed loan they can afford, that wants to move and looks out at a world of REOs.
Unlike the 90s, streamlined refis to save an FB will be difficult. When rates are going from 10% to 8%, taking a loan at 10% with 27 years left and turning it into a new 30 year at 8.5% is easy to do to prevent a default. Doing the same when the homeowner had a 3% teaser with rates at 5.5% when rates are going from 6.5 to possible 7-8% range, doesn’t give the owner payment relief.
Other than our Congress, who will be willing to take below Treasury yield returns with more risk? Possibly the Chinese, if they can keep the bubble inflated, they can keep us buying junk, which is the bulk their economy. That’s a long shot though.
ParticipantFive years. http://www.sdcounty.ca.gov/ttc/au_faqs.html
Taxes and interest will eat a defaulter alive. The interest rate is approximately 18%. California has authorized Tax Lien Certificates even though most counties don’t sell them, they just keep that fat interest for themselves.
ParticipantFive years. http://www.sdcounty.ca.gov/ttc/au_faqs.html
Taxes and interest will eat a defaulter alive. The interest rate is approximately 18%. California has authorized Tax Lien Certificates even though most counties don’t sell them, they just keep that fat interest for themselves.
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