[murray]

Facts from the field: I just placed new tenants in my Tierrasanta property.
Ask any landlord, renting out property during the holidays is VERY difficult. In the past I would advertise and maybe get 2 interested parties per week. However this time I received tremendous interest from my Craigslist ad. It still took a little time to get the property rented (because small house?). So what has changed in San Diego is that there are a lot of people looking to rent instead of buying a house, even during the usually slow holiday period. If I had this property turning over this summer, I predict I could get 10% more rent due to the demand for it.

[murray]

Facts from the field: I just placed new tenants in my Tierrasanta property.
Ask any landlord, renting out property during the holidays is VERY difficult. In the past I would advertise and maybe get 2 interested parties per week. However this time I received tremendous interest from my Craigslist ad. It still took a little time to get the property rented (because small house?). So what has changed in San Diego is that there are a lot of people looking to rent instead of buying a house, even during the usually slow holiday period. If I had this property turning over this summer, I predict I could get 10% more rent due to the demand for it.

[murray]

Facts from the field: I just placed new tenants in my Tierrasanta property.
Ask any landlord, renting out property during the holidays is VERY difficult. In the past I would advertise and maybe get 2 interested parties per week. However this time I received tremendous interest from my Craigslist ad. It still took a little time to get the property rented (because small house?). So what has changed in San Diego is that there are a lot of people looking to rent instead of buying a house, even during the usually slow holiday period. If I had this property turning over this summer, I predict I could get 10% more rent due to the demand for it.

[murray]

Facts from the field: I just placed new tenants in my Tierrasanta property.
Ask any landlord, renting out property during the holidays is VERY difficult. In the past I would advertise and maybe get 2 interested parties per week. However this time I received tremendous interest from my Craigslist ad. It still took a little time to get the property rented (because small house?). So what has changed in San Diego is that there are a lot of people looking to rent instead of buying a house, even during the usually slow holiday period. If I had this property turning over this summer, I predict I could get 10% more rent due to the demand for it.

[murray]

Facts from the field: I just placed new tenants in my Tierrasanta property.
Ask any landlord, renting out property during the holidays is VERY difficult. In the past I would advertise and maybe get 2 interested parties per week. However this time I received tremendous interest from my Craigslist ad. It still took a little time to get the property rented (because small house?). So what has changed in San Diego is that there are a lot of people looking to rent instead of buying a house, even during the usually slow holiday period. If I had this property turning over this summer, I predict I could get 10% more rent due to the demand for it.

[murray]

John:

I’ll look thru doc tonight before bed 🙂
But in the meantime could you identify the table, paragraph or text which SPECIFICALLY lists all 65 items you mentioned?

Tnx!

[murray]

Which IRS publication lists all 65 items in addition to items listed in Pub 527, Table 3?

[murray]

What if a rental property has been in use for a number of years without a chattel / personal property deduction structure in place?
Does the structure have to be set up when the property is first put in service or can it be “started” anytime?
On tax form is it documented the same way as capital improvements?
Judging from previous comments it appears owner can set it up themselves without need for a formal appraisal. (?)

[murray]

Last year 92124 SFR inventory levels were much, much higher (4x !) Very low SFR inventory levels surprise me at this point in the r/e cycle and especially at this time of year…what’s happening? Would be interesting to see a map of inventory yoy changes for various SD areas.

Notably 92124 condo, twnhs & PUD market is softer with relatively “elevated” inventories. Is this “dual market” trend being experienced in other SD areas?

As for certain neighborhoods being spared a r/e downturn this time… >> mid 90’s downturn hammered EVERY community – high end even worse. Areas furthest from employment centers will be hit first and hardest.

LA_Renter: Properties available to RENT are hard to find – there is indeed a shortage in LA – especially low priced units. (due to estimated 1M illegals in LA?)

[murray]

Tierrasanta (92124) SFR inventory is unusually LOW but condos, twnhms & PUDs are plentiful. Agent told me (3 weeks ago when I was down there) that it’s a little slow, buyers still in driver’s seat, but stuff IS selling, even expensive properties. I see very little, if any erosion in Tierrasanta SFR asking prices from 2005/6 …I think having such low inventory gives a floor support for prices.
Anyone else seeing this phenom in other SD areas? Will downturn be limited to overbuilt South Bay/Eastlake area?

Here in LA (Burbank) sales are a little soft but median price increases EVERY month. I’m amazed what people pay for crap here. Unlike SD, there is a severe housing and rental unit shortage in LA.

[murray]

In San Diego from approx 1991 to 1997:
• Property values decline slowly month after month, year after year until value is less in 1997 than in 1989 (SD median down ~20%, LA down ~ 25%, actuals – not adjusted for inflation)
• No increase in traffic on freeways during this time
• Regularly see loaded U-Haul trailers heading out of SD
• Unable to raise rents on income property due to low demand
• REOs set the market value in almost every neighborhood
• Eager contractors readily available for a reasonable price
• Estimated 500,000 jobs lost in SoCal, SD unemployment > 8%
• 90s economic downturn is 2nd only to the Great Depression

It seems most people don’t know (or forget) just how bad the 90s downturn was – caused by the loss of previously good paying, military-related jobs IMO. Unless unemployment returns to 8% range you won’t see the overall economy as bad this time, again IMO. What’s unique in this recent real estate price run-up is the unbelievable speculation, cheap money, no-qual loans and mortgage fraud. Real estate is due for a correction… 20 – 25%??

[murray]

“Everyone thinks free trade is a great idea until they realize that it has some very dark corners. Currently one of those dark corners is the export of high dollar high value jobs from the US to foreigners”.

It’s been said there’s no such thing as a free lunch – someone’s gotta to pay for it. Ditto with *free* trade. The mantra of free trade sounds great, eliminating import tariffs and allowing free flow of goods and services across borders. The problem is that there are huge disparities between economies and countries and the differences are never mitigated to achieve fairness or a level playing field. Who gets screwed? – the US taxpayer on the back of Joe Wagearner of course.

For instance other countries subsidize health care, education, childcare, etc. Communist China fixes it’s currency at an artificially low rate, effectively subsidizing their exports. Lax environmental, legal, child labor, copyright and piracy laws prevail at many of our trading partners.

The biggest beneficiary of free trade is large corporations. They also have effectively reduced their US tax burden by utilizing “aggressive accounting techniques and having favorable laws passed” according to a recent Newsweek article; (using Treasury Dept data) in the 1940s corporations contributed ~ 60% of total tax receipts, 40% from individual income, now it’s ~20% from corporations and ~ 80% from individuals.

This “race to the bottom” is sad.

[murray]

My biased vote: Tierrasanta
(Tierrasanta is fully built out…no new housing)
Pros:
1. 30% of land area is open space with lots of hiking / walking trails
2. very active community / spirit
3. excellent freeway access – 15,52,163,8 – very convienient
4. a cul de sac community – you don’t drive thru it to get anywhere else
5. close-in to the city/services/jobs
6. ajacent to Mission Trails regional park
7. all utilities underground. Lots of trees.

Cons:
1. Miramar noise from jets intermittently
2. *Almost* too hot
3. some claim schools are (very) good – still city school district tho
4. Murphy Canyon military housing ajacent
5. pricy (what area isn’t)

[murray]

Update on SFR rental turnover…
Submitted by murray on July 19, 2006 – 10:28am.
Rents are indeed up!
“Two-bedroom units surveyed by the county association rose only about 4 percent over the year, Pinnegar said yesterday. In contrast, single-family-home rents rose by nearly 16 percent, he added. Studios rose by about 13 percent and one-bedroom units increased by 5.8 percent”.

I have a 2000 sq ft sfr turning over Sept 1. I’ll keep you informed on the outcome.

******************************************
I rented the house to the first couple who showed up for my *preview* open house. As with the tenants in the other 2 sfrs I own, these tenants recently sold their house, are qualified to buy but choose not to thinking r/e prices will decrease.

I raised rent 11.8% from last year. Rent is high end for the area.

[murray]

PS: Obviously, without income, the demand on all housing will soften…supply and demand determines rents (except in rent-controlled areas). Health of the housing market / economy is tied directly to employment.

If employment shrinks rents suffer (as in early 1990s) along with house prices. The upcoming house price correction hinges on the labor market;
– if unemployment stays ok then ~ 10% correction to reverse recent speculative price runup
– if unemployment like early 1990s (~8%) expect ~ 25% correction
– if unemployment like 1981/82 (~12%) national recession you’ll get your 50% correction!

What, specifically, is your prediction?

[Author]

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