[Mr_Brightside]

Two thoughts on this, first the market will probably not factor in volcano or sunami risk for the northwest as there hasn’t been a big event yet. While this could happen since it never has there’s a big discount on the probability of an event and on any finacial losses. I’m not saying I agree with this but markets, while imperfect are better than the alternatives.

Second, I think sometimes scientists can make risks sound bigger than they are as it’s in their interest to make their area of expertise more important in order to acquire funding, etc. I have a ton of respect for these people I’m only running this question through the human nature patterns I’ve observed over the years.

I do find Vancouver to be one of the best cities I’ve ever visited, especially during the summer. It’s also relevant to note that they have their own condo bubble that’s seems to be deflating a bit as well.

[Mr_Brightside]

I have always been amazed at the high HOA fees. HOA fees in Vancouver BC where Bosa and Intergulf (Treo, La Vita) operate has much lower fees.

That said like everything else California is more expensive and I also think the earthquake insurance is around $100 a month. I don’t think Vancouver is subject to earthquakes to the degree we are so that also accounts for the difference. I also think electricity is much cheaper in BC which also adds up.

I do think that luxury housing is just fine as you do create a move up effect, the best way to end up with affordable housing is for buildigns like Treo and La Vita which are already mid-market to be totally outclassed along with reduced views. Again I totally support the concept of affordable housing via letting the market put as much product in whatever mix people want to build.

[Mr_Brightside]

I have a background in finance and technology. I’ve built some technology tools that I use to screen the market for interesting activity. I’ve done this for awhile for my own use and started the blog awhile back to share this with everyone else. I’m glad that people are finding the data useful.

I’ve never been to the auction downtown. I’m not sure exactly what it is but I’ll surmise that it’s a foreclosure auction. I don’t think we are very close to getting any deals from the foreclosure process. Even if you got a good deal you’d have to resell the unit pretty quickly as the drag on prices is just getting started.

I do have every intention of “going positive” at some point and making a call to start buying well-selected properties. We’re not very close to this point yet.

[Mr_Brightside]

If you check out my blog I feature over 50 specific properites that have either closed or are listed at a loss relative to the current owners cost.

http://sandiegomarketmonitor.blogspot.com/

Regarding your question C there has been some discussion under a post I made about Icon, which is likely to be the first of the many new buildings completing in 2007, it was very interesting to see some of the Phase 1 pricing that was posted as it was quite underwhelming which leads me to believe that the escrows for the project aren’t very sticky. This theory is substantiated by the amount of adversting on Icon. It’s virtually everywhere. Clearly if the first new tower to complete isn’t sold out and people start to cancel their contracts the story will get tougher and tougher with each new building.

Anyway I hope this helps somewhat, know that it’s very hard to put any quantitative numbers on your list…

[Mr_Brightside]

Losses are stacking up on my blog:

http://sandiegomarketmonitor.blogspot.com/

So far I’ve recored 54 properties and total losses of $3,937,468.

It’s getting easy to find downtown condos that have $100,000 losses.

I’m getting ready to spend more time recording losses in the suburbs, does anyone have ideas for where I should start?

[Mr_Brightside]

Downtown is awesome however I think that Cortez Hill and Little Italy are better places to live than Gaslamp, EV or Marina.

Being able to park your car and walk everywhere is very nice. If you like to have a few drinks once in awhile that makes it even better.

It’s not for everyone though.

All that said the prices are too high for regular people to buy which is why the market is correcting.

[Mr_Brightside]

I live downtown and love it. That said I think the turnover of people is fairly high as it’s pretty normal for people to move into the city, have a lot of fun but move out after awhile.

As far as prices go I think they’re heading to a more normal rent vs. payment ratio. I can see condos going back to 2002/2003 prices.

[Mr_Brightside]

There are some new, unfinished condos listed in the MLS. The various sales offices do this to drive traffic to their office. I doubt that they are putting their entire inventory on the MLS. Back in 2001 it was normal to get a printup of every single condo, the size, view and price that was remaining in the building. I have one of these from Discovery on Cortez Hill. It’s interesting.

As far as the big new wave of condos coming in 2007 I have a thread going on my blog that discussed ICON which is likely the first of the towers to close next year. Based on what I’m reading even the Phase 1 people are sitting on fairly unstimulating contract prices. I am wondering how “sticky” the escrows are for all these condos next year.

http://sandiegomarketmonitor.blogspot.com/2006/08/icon-new-condo-development-near-petco.html

[Mr_Brightside]

First of all I sense the rah rah pro-real estate bias in the media as well.

I don’t really think it’s a big corporate conspiracy though. The most bullish media outlets in San Diego are the San Diego Daily Transcript and the San Diego Metropolitan. Who owns them? They appear to be fairly small businesses.

The Union Trib has been publishing realistic articles on the housing market.

I do think that to some degree the media is just a reflection on the current mass think anyway so I wouldn’t look for any breakthroughs from the media on any topic.

My final thought here is that sit back and think of the times that you saw a news event first hand or happen to be an expert in the field that a journalist is reporting on. Almost without exception in these cases the media account is very much flawed. This makes me think that most news is either biased or more like hapless.

I do have friends that are journalists and frankly they need to crank out work just like the rest of us do, there isn’t any time to become an expert in the field.

[Mr_Brightside]

You are likely not the first nor the biggest loser.

My blog tracks specific properties that are for sale or sold for less than the previous purchase price.

http://sandiegomarketmonitor.blogspot.com/

[Mr_Brightside]

I’ve added this to my blog as I think it’s important to document actual cases of specific properties that are selling at a loss. While I focus on downtown as I know the market down here very well all of San Diego is of interest so let me know of any other examples I can post.

http://sandiegomarketmonitor.blogspot.com/

[Mr_Brightside]

I think the Phase 2 and beyond people had to put 5% down to get started, most VantagePointe buys are now in escrow and will need to put another 5% down when the building is topped out.

The $5,000 deposit was to reserve a unit, once the escrow opened the buyer needed to deposit more funds to reach 5%.

At this point I doubt that construction would stop on the project.

[Mr_Brightside]

The condo your friend is likely buying is VantagePointe. It’s a huge building that’s only 50% reserved. The units in the building are very very small and the building has lost a level of parking due to a constraint that came up during the excavation phase.

If you want to show your friend some examples of people losing on downtown condos take a look at my blog, I’m posting specific examples of losses as I run across them.

http://sandiegomarketmonitor.blogspot.com/

[Mr_Brightside]

I have added another entry to my blog, this entry discussed an interesting one bedroom at La Vita in Little Italy.

http://sandiegomarketmonitor.blogspot.com/

[Mr_Brightside]

Can you post the building or unit number? I’d like to research that and post it.

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