In reading through the posts – we should all remember that in looking at inventory – we should be focusing on months of inventory on the market. So there are two numbers number of listing OVER units closing per month. One may not use just the number of homes closed the month before but probably a moving three month average is best. SD Realtor is right – listing will take a seasonal dip and also will units closings – so the months worth of inventory could decline/stay the same/or increase. I don’t think there is a magic number but if San Diego starts to continually have 8-10 months of inventory it will only continue to put downward pressure on prices. So inventory does not need to continue to climb in the aggregate and by stating that inventories will decline and many homeowners will pull of the market is not neccessarily being bullish about the market. I am a firm believer that a decline is coming but it will be slow – if we look at history SFR markets typically decline relatively slowly because individuals do hang on and are very resistant to downward pricing.
Since the above is my first post and I have been reading this site for a while – I feel I need to make a disclaimer about my opinions and where they come from:
I moved to SD in September of 2004 – have a nice down payment from selling my place in Sacramento. Chose NOT to buy because I felt that the market was overheated. I am employed in the RE industry – I work at a large commercial bank and do real estate finance. My group does short term, variable rate loans for professional developers. So contruction, aquisition/bridge financing, repositioning financing…. just like the individual residential market there is long term fixed rate financing for developers – but that is not my group. I work with all developers, retail, office, industrial and production home builders.
And by the way – I have really enjoyed most of my readings on this site. Could live without some of the squabble but all in all you all seem to do your best to be self monitoring.
