[LA_Renter]

I found this on Big Picture. It is an interview with George Magnus, the senior economic advisor for UBS. He explains the Minsky moment and basically says “you ain’t seen nothing yet” regarding the sheer scale of the Govt bailout he expects here in the US. He anticipates a Trillion dollar meltdown. There are three parts in video form that run back to back. Very very interesting indeed.

http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html

[LA_Renter]

I found this on Big Picture. It is an interview with George Magnus, the senior economic advisor for UBS. He explains the Minsky moment and basically says “you ain’t seen nothing yet” regarding the sheer scale of the Govt bailout he expects here in the US. He anticipates a Trillion dollar meltdown. There are three parts in video form that run back to back. Very very interesting indeed.

http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html

[LA_Renter]

I found this on Big Picture. It is an interview with George Magnus, the senior economic advisor for UBS. He explains the Minsky moment and basically says “you ain’t seen nothing yet” regarding the sheer scale of the Govt bailout he expects here in the US. He anticipates a Trillion dollar meltdown. There are three parts in video form that run back to back. Very very interesting indeed.

http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html

[LA_Renter]

I found this on Big Picture. It is an interview with George Magnus, the senior economic advisor for UBS. He explains the Minsky moment and basically says “you ain’t seen nothing yet” regarding the sheer scale of the Govt bailout he expects here in the US. He anticipates a Trillion dollar meltdown. There are three parts in video form that run back to back. Very very interesting indeed.

http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html

[LA_Renter]

I found this on Big Picture. It is an interview with George Magnus, the senior economic advisor for UBS. He explains the Minsky moment and basically says “you ain’t seen nothing yet” regarding the sheer scale of the Govt bailout he expects here in the US. He anticipates a Trillion dollar meltdown. There are three parts in video form that run back to back. Very very interesting indeed.

http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html

[LA_Renter]

I’m in total agreement with Dave that the market will have to head down unless the S & P can sustain trading above a 21x EPS multiple during a recession (historically the S & P trades at a 10 to 11 multiple in a true bear market). Now how we get there is another story. Consider this

“NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped 4.8 percent in mid-February, the exchange said on Friday, touching an all-time high and suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2260037720080222?rpc=44

Large short interest + big money managers = spectacular short squeezes. I am getting a feeling we are going to see some wild swings. To me the entire market is beginning to look like one big HB stock. Shorts made a boat load of money on those stocks but not without getting their noses bloodied on more than one occasion.

[LA_Renter]

I’m in total agreement with Dave that the market will have to head down unless the S & P can sustain trading above a 21x EPS multiple during a recession (historically the S & P trades at a 10 to 11 multiple in a true bear market). Now how we get there is another story. Consider this

“NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped 4.8 percent in mid-February, the exchange said on Friday, touching an all-time high and suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2260037720080222?rpc=44

Large short interest + big money managers = spectacular short squeezes. I am getting a feeling we are going to see some wild swings. To me the entire market is beginning to look like one big HB stock. Shorts made a boat load of money on those stocks but not without getting their noses bloodied on more than one occasion.

[LA_Renter]

I’m in total agreement with Dave that the market will have to head down unless the S & P can sustain trading above a 21x EPS multiple during a recession (historically the S & P trades at a 10 to 11 multiple in a true bear market). Now how we get there is another story. Consider this

“NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped 4.8 percent in mid-February, the exchange said on Friday, touching an all-time high and suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2260037720080222?rpc=44

Large short interest + big money managers = spectacular short squeezes. I am getting a feeling we are going to see some wild swings. To me the entire market is beginning to look like one big HB stock. Shorts made a boat load of money on those stocks but not without getting their noses bloodied on more than one occasion.

[LA_Renter]

I’m in total agreement with Dave that the market will have to head down unless the S & P can sustain trading above a 21x EPS multiple during a recession (historically the S & P trades at a 10 to 11 multiple in a true bear market). Now how we get there is another story. Consider this

“NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped 4.8 percent in mid-February, the exchange said on Friday, touching an all-time high and suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2260037720080222?rpc=44

Large short interest + big money managers = spectacular short squeezes. I am getting a feeling we are going to see some wild swings. To me the entire market is beginning to look like one big HB stock. Shorts made a boat load of money on those stocks but not without getting their noses bloodied on more than one occasion.

[LA_Renter]

I’m in total agreement with Dave that the market will have to head down unless the S & P can sustain trading above a 21x EPS multiple during a recession (historically the S & P trades at a 10 to 11 multiple in a true bear market). Now how we get there is another story. Consider this

“NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped 4.8 percent in mid-February, the exchange said on Friday, touching an all-time high and suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2260037720080222?rpc=44

Large short interest + big money managers = spectacular short squeezes. I am getting a feeling we are going to see some wild swings. To me the entire market is beginning to look like one big HB stock. Shorts made a boat load of money on those stocks but not without getting their noses bloodied on more than one occasion.

[LA_Renter]

The bullish case for the stock market is based on S&P estimates that earnings for the S&P 500 will rise 20% in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008, from 2007 also I’m getting a pony this Christmas……….with spots. Seriously that what’s the whole bullish case is right now, the FED has dropped its drawers and a HUGE rebound will begin in earnest during the second half of 08. Of course as data and earnings start coming in that throw water on this assumption the market will more than likely make its LOW. What has happened in past recessions is that the FED would lower interest rates and this would act as a stimulus on one of the nations largest industry’s……Real Estate. Right now home values are still way too high and RE is basically inelastic to Fed easing at this point in time. So exactly what is the vehicle (asset class) that is going to drive us out of the malaise?? There isn’t one that is not inflationary. IMHO the bullish case on the second half rebound is Bullsh#t.

[LA_Renter]

The bullish case for the stock market is based on S&P estimates that earnings for the S&P 500 will rise 20% in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008, from 2007 also I’m getting a pony this Christmas……….with spots. Seriously that what’s the whole bullish case is right now, the FED has dropped its drawers and a HUGE rebound will begin in earnest during the second half of 08. Of course as data and earnings start coming in that throw water on this assumption the market will more than likely make its LOW. What has happened in past recessions is that the FED would lower interest rates and this would act as a stimulus on one of the nations largest industry’s……Real Estate. Right now home values are still way too high and RE is basically inelastic to Fed easing at this point in time. So exactly what is the vehicle (asset class) that is going to drive us out of the malaise?? There isn’t one that is not inflationary. IMHO the bullish case on the second half rebound is Bullsh#t.

[LA_Renter]

The bullish case for the stock market is based on S&P estimates that earnings for the S&P 500 will rise 20% in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008, from 2007 also I’m getting a pony this Christmas……….with spots. Seriously that what’s the whole bullish case is right now, the FED has dropped its drawers and a HUGE rebound will begin in earnest during the second half of 08. Of course as data and earnings start coming in that throw water on this assumption the market will more than likely make its LOW. What has happened in past recessions is that the FED would lower interest rates and this would act as a stimulus on one of the nations largest industry’s……Real Estate. Right now home values are still way too high and RE is basically inelastic to Fed easing at this point in time. So exactly what is the vehicle (asset class) that is going to drive us out of the malaise?? There isn’t one that is not inflationary. IMHO the bullish case on the second half rebound is Bullsh#t.

[LA_Renter]

The bullish case for the stock market is based on S&P estimates that earnings for the S&P 500 will rise 20% in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008, from 2007 also I’m getting a pony this Christmas……….with spots. Seriously that what’s the whole bullish case is right now, the FED has dropped its drawers and a HUGE rebound will begin in earnest during the second half of 08. Of course as data and earnings start coming in that throw water on this assumption the market will more than likely make its LOW. What has happened in past recessions is that the FED would lower interest rates and this would act as a stimulus on one of the nations largest industry’s……Real Estate. Right now home values are still way too high and RE is basically inelastic to Fed easing at this point in time. So exactly what is the vehicle (asset class) that is going to drive us out of the malaise?? There isn’t one that is not inflationary. IMHO the bullish case on the second half rebound is Bullsh#t.

[LA_Renter]

The bullish case for the stock market is based on S&P estimates that earnings for the S&P 500 will rise 20% in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008, from 2007 also I’m getting a pony this Christmas……….with spots. Seriously that what’s the whole bullish case is right now, the FED has dropped its drawers and a HUGE rebound will begin in earnest during the second half of 08. Of course as data and earnings start coming in that throw water on this assumption the market will more than likely make its LOW. What has happened in past recessions is that the FED would lower interest rates and this would act as a stimulus on one of the nations largest industry’s……Real Estate. Right now home values are still way too high and RE is basically inelastic to Fed easing at this point in time. So exactly what is the vehicle (asset class) that is going to drive us out of the malaise?? There isn’t one that is not inflationary. IMHO the bullish case on the second half rebound is Bullsh#t.

[Author]

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