DOW rockets in the final hours. Are Boom times back?

[OC Burns]

What goosed everyone today? A whole day of sorrow ended in a rabid bout of happy feet.

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?intflavor=advanced&symb=INDU&sid=1643&freq=9&time=1dy&dist=TQP_chart_image

[kewp]

Potential bailout for the bond insurers (and my poor SKF took a beating).

I personally think there isn’t enough lipstick in the world for this pig, so I’m gonna hold on and ride this out. There are still trillions in write-downs to go in the financial sector.

[kewp]

Potential bailout for the bond insurers (and my poor SKF took a beating).

I personally think there isn’t enough lipstick in the world for this pig, so I’m gonna hold on and ride this out. There are still trillions in write-downs to go in the financial sector.

[kewp]

Potential bailout for the bond insurers (and my poor SKF took a beating).

I personally think there isn’t enough lipstick in the world for this pig, so I’m gonna hold on and ride this out. There are still trillions in write-downs to go in the financial sector.

[kewp]

Potential bailout for the bond insurers (and my poor SKF took a beating).

I personally think there isn’t enough lipstick in the world for this pig, so I’m gonna hold on and ride this out. There are still trillions in write-downs to go in the financial sector.

[kewp]

Potential bailout for the bond insurers (and my poor SKF took a beating).

I personally think there isn’t enough lipstick in the world for this pig, so I’m gonna hold on and ride this out. There are still trillions in write-downs to go in the financial sector.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

That was the PPT at work, whenever you see the last hour save that is what is behind it. We are close to a very bullish time period, many insiders are aware of this bullish cycle, so some of the move could have been positioning for that, but I doubt it. We are still about 2-4 weeks from the ideal entry based on cycles, but it could take off at any time now in my opinion.

Net net that last hour did not mean anything in the big picture, but it is time to find the stocks you want to buy and start buying them for the election year rally that typically starts in March.

[HereWeGo]

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

[hipmatt]

yea… the dow has had an up day for every two down days lately, and THIS (today)is the start of the next boom?…….

[davelj]

Are the boom times back?

Well, as my grandfather used to say, “Why don’t you wish in one hand and shit in the other and we’ll see which one fills up faster.”

[barnaby33]

Pure CNBC bullshit. They announced the bailout, then started back pedaling. Too late the rally had already been ignited. There was no other good news today, this was a pure rumor pump. If it doesn’t happen look out below, because that rally and more will come off quickly. Even if it does happen, all its doing is shuffling the deck chairs. The “bailout” was merely a planned injection of cash from the very same banks that would have to deal with the lowered ratings on the debt they hold if Ambak loses its rating. Its all a giant ponzi scheme.

Chris I hate to gainsay you, but seriously are you smoking crack these days? A huge rally? Our banking system is pretty close to INSOLVENT if Ambak goes tits up. Every major wall street bank has billions in crap CDO’s on its books and more in SPE’s, ensured by you-know-who.

Most people on the street I talk to have a very dim view of whats happening in the economy, J6P may not know how much he’s been fucked, but he can feel something is not right.

The FED is draining liquidity from its primary brokers to loan to smaller institutions via the TAF. That explains why they threw 5 banks a section 23A exemption back in August allowing the banks to lend their brokerage arms more than 10% of assets.

Unemployment is on the rise the dollar is weak and inflation in consumer prices seems rampant, where is the bullishness in all this?

Davelj, you are right, its a shitty asset crisis, unfolding right before our eyes. The FED is trying to make sure its not the bagholder and so is everyone else. Problem is all those wink wink nod nod counterparty agreements are going to unravel, the couterparties don’t have the money. Who’s left holding the sausage, sure looks like the banks so far.

Josh

[drunkle]

cnbc announced a “possible” bailout… but we knew they’ve been trying to get something together for what, the past month?

ppt sounds right, a 200 point move on “news” that isn’t news and that people are leary of anyway.

ppt or shorts covering, getting freaked by the potential pop. self fulfilling thingme.

[drunkle]

cnbc announced a “possible” bailout… but we knew they’ve been trying to get something together for what, the past month?

ppt sounds right, a 200 point move on “news” that isn’t news and that people are leary of anyway.

ppt or shorts covering, getting freaked by the potential pop. self fulfilling thingme.

[drunkle]

cnbc announced a “possible” bailout… but we knew they’ve been trying to get something together for what, the past month?

ppt sounds right, a 200 point move on “news” that isn’t news and that people are leary of anyway.

ppt or shorts covering, getting freaked by the potential pop. self fulfilling thingme.

[drunkle]

cnbc announced a “possible” bailout… but we knew they’ve been trying to get something together for what, the past month?

ppt sounds right, a 200 point move on “news” that isn’t news and that people are leary of anyway.

ppt or shorts covering, getting freaked by the potential pop. self fulfilling thingme.

[drunkle]

cnbc announced a “possible” bailout… but we knew they’ve been trying to get something together for what, the past month?

ppt sounds right, a 200 point move on “news” that isn’t news and that people are leary of anyway.

ppt or shorts covering, getting freaked by the potential pop. self fulfilling thingme.

[LA_Renter]

The bullish case for the stock market is based on S&P estimates that earnings for the S&P 500 will rise 20% in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008, from 2007 also I’m getting a pony this Christmas……….with spots. Seriously that what’s the whole bullish case is right now, the FED has dropped its drawers and a HUGE rebound will begin in earnest during the second half of 08. Of course as data and earnings start coming in that throw water on this assumption the market will more than likely make its LOW. What has happened in past recessions is that the FED would lower interest rates and this would act as a stimulus on one of the nations largest industry’s……Real Estate. Right now home values are still way too high and RE is basically inelastic to Fed easing at this point in time. So exactly what is the vehicle (asset class) that is going to drive us out of the malaise?? There isn’t one that is not inflationary. IMHO the bullish case on the second half rebound is Bullsh#t.

[LA_Renter]

The bullish case for the stock market is based on S&P estimates that earnings for the S&P 500 will rise 20% in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008, from 2007 also I’m getting a pony this Christmas……….with spots. Seriously that what’s the whole bullish case is right now, the FED has dropped its drawers and a HUGE rebound will begin in earnest during the second half of 08. Of course as data and earnings start coming in that throw water on this assumption the market will more than likely make its LOW. What has happened in past recessions is that the FED would lower interest rates and this would act as a stimulus on one of the nations largest industry’s……Real Estate. Right now home values are still way too high and RE is basically inelastic to Fed easing at this point in time. So exactly what is the vehicle (asset class) that is going to drive us out of the malaise?? There isn’t one that is not inflationary. IMHO the bullish case on the second half rebound is Bullsh#t.

[LA_Renter]

The bullish case for the stock market is based on S&P estimates that earnings for the S&P 500 will rise 20% in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008, from 2007 also I’m getting a pony this Christmas……….with spots. Seriously that what’s the whole bullish case is right now, the FED has dropped its drawers and a HUGE rebound will begin in earnest during the second half of 08. Of course as data and earnings start coming in that throw water on this assumption the market will more than likely make its LOW. What has happened in past recessions is that the FED would lower interest rates and this would act as a stimulus on one of the nations largest industry’s……Real Estate. Right now home values are still way too high and RE is basically inelastic to Fed easing at this point in time. So exactly what is the vehicle (asset class) that is going to drive us out of the malaise?? There isn’t one that is not inflationary. IMHO the bullish case on the second half rebound is Bullsh#t.

[LA_Renter]

The bullish case for the stock market is based on S&P estimates that earnings for the S&P 500 will rise 20% in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008, from 2007 also I’m getting a pony this Christmas……….with spots. Seriously that what’s the whole bullish case is right now, the FED has dropped its drawers and a HUGE rebound will begin in earnest during the second half of 08. Of course as data and earnings start coming in that throw water on this assumption the market will more than likely make its LOW. What has happened in past recessions is that the FED would lower interest rates and this would act as a stimulus on one of the nations largest industry’s……Real Estate. Right now home values are still way too high and RE is basically inelastic to Fed easing at this point in time. So exactly what is the vehicle (asset class) that is going to drive us out of the malaise?? There isn’t one that is not inflationary. IMHO the bullish case on the second half rebound is Bullsh#t.

[LA_Renter]

The bullish case for the stock market is based on S&P estimates that earnings for the S&P 500 will rise 20% in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008, from 2007 also I’m getting a pony this Christmas……….with spots. Seriously that what’s the whole bullish case is right now, the FED has dropped its drawers and a HUGE rebound will begin in earnest during the second half of 08. Of course as data and earnings start coming in that throw water on this assumption the market will more than likely make its LOW. What has happened in past recessions is that the FED would lower interest rates and this would act as a stimulus on one of the nations largest industry’s……Real Estate. Right now home values are still way too high and RE is basically inelastic to Fed easing at this point in time. So exactly what is the vehicle (asset class) that is going to drive us out of the malaise?? There isn’t one that is not inflationary. IMHO the bullish case on the second half rebound is Bullsh#t.

[barnaby33]

Pure CNBC bullshit. They announced the bailout, then started back pedaling. Too late the rally had already been ignited. There was no other good news today, this was a pure rumor pump. If it doesn’t happen look out below, because that rally and more will come off quickly. Even if it does happen, all its doing is shuffling the deck chairs. The “bailout” was merely a planned injection of cash from the very same banks that would have to deal with the lowered ratings on the debt they hold if Ambak loses its rating. Its all a giant ponzi scheme.

Chris I hate to gainsay you, but seriously are you smoking crack these days? A huge rally? Our banking system is pretty close to INSOLVENT if Ambak goes tits up. Every major wall street bank has billions in crap CDO’s on its books and more in SPE’s, ensured by you-know-who.

Most people on the street I talk to have a very dim view of whats happening in the economy, J6P may not know how much he’s been fucked, but he can feel something is not right.

The FED is draining liquidity from its primary brokers to loan to smaller institutions via the TAF. That explains why they threw 5 banks a section 23A exemption back in August allowing the banks to lend their brokerage arms more than 10% of assets.

Unemployment is on the rise the dollar is weak and inflation in consumer prices seems rampant, where is the bullishness in all this?

Davelj, you are right, its a shitty asset crisis, unfolding right before our eyes. The FED is trying to make sure its not the bagholder and so is everyone else. Problem is all those wink wink nod nod counterparty agreements are going to unravel, the couterparties don’t have the money. Who’s left holding the sausage, sure looks like the banks so far.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Pure CNBC bullshit. They announced the bailout, then started back pedaling. Too late the rally had already been ignited. There was no other good news today, this was a pure rumor pump. If it doesn’t happen look out below, because that rally and more will come off quickly. Even if it does happen, all its doing is shuffling the deck chairs. The “bailout” was merely a planned injection of cash from the very same banks that would have to deal with the lowered ratings on the debt they hold if Ambak loses its rating. Its all a giant ponzi scheme.

Chris I hate to gainsay you, but seriously are you smoking crack these days? A huge rally? Our banking system is pretty close to INSOLVENT if Ambak goes tits up. Every major wall street bank has billions in crap CDO’s on its books and more in SPE’s, ensured by you-know-who.

Most people on the street I talk to have a very dim view of whats happening in the economy, J6P may not know how much he’s been fucked, but he can feel something is not right.

The FED is draining liquidity from its primary brokers to loan to smaller institutions via the TAF. That explains why they threw 5 banks a section 23A exemption back in August allowing the banks to lend their brokerage arms more than 10% of assets.

Unemployment is on the rise the dollar is weak and inflation in consumer prices seems rampant, where is the bullishness in all this?

Davelj, you are right, its a shitty asset crisis, unfolding right before our eyes. The FED is trying to make sure its not the bagholder and so is everyone else. Problem is all those wink wink nod nod counterparty agreements are going to unravel, the couterparties don’t have the money. Who’s left holding the sausage, sure looks like the banks so far.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Pure CNBC bullshit. They announced the bailout, then started back pedaling. Too late the rally had already been ignited. There was no other good news today, this was a pure rumor pump. If it doesn’t happen look out below, because that rally and more will come off quickly. Even if it does happen, all its doing is shuffling the deck chairs. The “bailout” was merely a planned injection of cash from the very same banks that would have to deal with the lowered ratings on the debt they hold if Ambak loses its rating. Its all a giant ponzi scheme.

Chris I hate to gainsay you, but seriously are you smoking crack these days? A huge rally? Our banking system is pretty close to INSOLVENT if Ambak goes tits up. Every major wall street bank has billions in crap CDO’s on its books and more in SPE’s, ensured by you-know-who.

Most people on the street I talk to have a very dim view of whats happening in the economy, J6P may not know how much he’s been fucked, but he can feel something is not right.

The FED is draining liquidity from its primary brokers to loan to smaller institutions via the TAF. That explains why they threw 5 banks a section 23A exemption back in August allowing the banks to lend their brokerage arms more than 10% of assets.

Unemployment is on the rise the dollar is weak and inflation in consumer prices seems rampant, where is the bullishness in all this?

Davelj, you are right, its a shitty asset crisis, unfolding right before our eyes. The FED is trying to make sure its not the bagholder and so is everyone else. Problem is all those wink wink nod nod counterparty agreements are going to unravel, the couterparties don’t have the money. Who’s left holding the sausage, sure looks like the banks so far.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Pure CNBC bullshit. They announced the bailout, then started back pedaling. Too late the rally had already been ignited. There was no other good news today, this was a pure rumor pump. If it doesn’t happen look out below, because that rally and more will come off quickly. Even if it does happen, all its doing is shuffling the deck chairs. The “bailout” was merely a planned injection of cash from the very same banks that would have to deal with the lowered ratings on the debt they hold if Ambak loses its rating. Its all a giant ponzi scheme.

Chris I hate to gainsay you, but seriously are you smoking crack these days? A huge rally? Our banking system is pretty close to INSOLVENT if Ambak goes tits up. Every major wall street bank has billions in crap CDO’s on its books and more in SPE’s, ensured by you-know-who.

Most people on the street I talk to have a very dim view of whats happening in the economy, J6P may not know how much he’s been fucked, but he can feel something is not right.

The FED is draining liquidity from its primary brokers to loan to smaller institutions via the TAF. That explains why they threw 5 banks a section 23A exemption back in August allowing the banks to lend their brokerage arms more than 10% of assets.

Unemployment is on the rise the dollar is weak and inflation in consumer prices seems rampant, where is the bullishness in all this?

Davelj, you are right, its a shitty asset crisis, unfolding right before our eyes. The FED is trying to make sure its not the bagholder and so is everyone else. Problem is all those wink wink nod nod counterparty agreements are going to unravel, the couterparties don’t have the money. Who’s left holding the sausage, sure looks like the banks so far.

Josh

[davelj]

Are the boom times back?

Well, as my grandfather used to say, “Why don’t you wish in one hand and shit in the other and we’ll see which one fills up faster.”

[davelj]

Are the boom times back?

Well, as my grandfather used to say, “Why don’t you wish in one hand and shit in the other and we’ll see which one fills up faster.”

[davelj]

Are the boom times back?

Well, as my grandfather used to say, “Why don’t you wish in one hand and shit in the other and we’ll see which one fills up faster.”

[davelj]

Are the boom times back?

Well, as my grandfather used to say, “Why don’t you wish in one hand and shit in the other and we’ll see which one fills up faster.”

[hipmatt]

yea… the dow has had an up day for every two down days lately, and THIS (today)is the start of the next boom?…….

[hipmatt]

yea… the dow has had an up day for every two down days lately, and THIS (today)is the start of the next boom?…….

[hipmatt]

yea… the dow has had an up day for every two down days lately, and THIS (today)is the start of the next boom?…….

[hipmatt]

yea… the dow has had an up day for every two down days lately, and THIS (today)is the start of the next boom?…….

[HereWeGo]

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

[HereWeGo]

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

[HereWeGo]

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

[HereWeGo]

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

[davelj]

I’m sympathetic to Chris’s views as a trader because it’s so hard to game the short-term machinations of the market, and a “technical system” – for lack of a better description – such as one that Chris uses is almost certainly better than using fundamentals in the short term.

Having said that, I have my doubts as to whether such systems are going to “work” properly in the current environment because the credit/insolvency crisis (which is “fundamental” in nature) that we’re witnessing is so rare. Therefore, using past trading data – which is the basis for all technical systems – isn’t of much use unless it incorporates and heavily emphasizes those previous periods that are similar to this one, such as the lead-up to the ’90-’91 and ’80-’82 recessions. Obviously, I could be totally wrong, but I think we’re in very rarely charted territory and one could argue downright uncharted territory when taking into account the derivative situation.

EPS on the S&P 500 were $85.19 in 2006. Including the financials write-downs and the huge GE write-down, EPS were $71.56 for 2007. For 2008, the EPS estimate began at $92.30 in March of ’07 and is now at $71.20… and that assumes 20%+ Y/Y growth in the second half of ’08. Given that we are likely just creeping into recession (or perhaps have been in one for the last couple of months), it seems HIGHLY unlikely that we’re going to see 20% Y/E EPS growth on the S&P in the second half; thus we could easily see $65 in EPS in 2008 which, by the way, gets us back to NORMAL profit margins on the S&P historically. That means we could very well be trading at a 21x EPS multiple on (finally) normalized earnings power for 2008. That ain’t cheap.

Jeremy Grantham recently said that trend line (that is, “mean reverting”) margins, earnings and valuations (assuming interest rates are similar to today’s) puts the S&P at 1100 in 2011 – that’s 18% below today’s prices. Again, I realize that I’m talking about fundamentals here, but no matter where this market rallies over the next couple of months, I think the intermediate term trajectory – that is, over the next 12-18 months, is down down down. At some point, the fundamentals matter and the long-awaited mean reversion will kick in, just as it did briefly in 2001-2002. And regardless of who’s President, they ain’t gonna be able to save the credit markets from a severe ass whoopin’.

Again, day-to-day trading… who knows? The credit markets are screaming that something’s seriously wrong. Eventually the equity market’s going to listen. The tail can’t wag the dog forever.

[drunkle]

right, given the turbulence and the transition from bull to bear, how reliable are models going to be…

and, is there any input(s) for the credit collapse in the modeling? that despite the fed’s rate cutting, credit (ie., money) is still withdrawing from the market?

[drunkle]

right, given the turbulence and the transition from bull to bear, how reliable are models going to be…

and, is there any input(s) for the credit collapse in the modeling? that despite the fed’s rate cutting, credit (ie., money) is still withdrawing from the market?

[drunkle]

right, given the turbulence and the transition from bull to bear, how reliable are models going to be…

and, is there any input(s) for the credit collapse in the modeling? that despite the fed’s rate cutting, credit (ie., money) is still withdrawing from the market?

[drunkle]

right, given the turbulence and the transition from bull to bear, how reliable are models going to be…

and, is there any input(s) for the credit collapse in the modeling? that despite the fed’s rate cutting, credit (ie., money) is still withdrawing from the market?

[drunkle]

right, given the turbulence and the transition from bull to bear, how reliable are models going to be…

and, is there any input(s) for the credit collapse in the modeling? that despite the fed’s rate cutting, credit (ie., money) is still withdrawing from the market?

[LA_Renter]

I’m in total agreement with Dave that the market will have to head down unless the S & P can sustain trading above a 21x EPS multiple during a recession (historically the S & P trades at a 10 to 11 multiple in a true bear market). Now how we get there is another story. Consider this

“NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped 4.8 percent in mid-February, the exchange said on Friday, touching an all-time high and suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2260037720080222?rpc=44

Large short interest + big money managers = spectacular short squeezes. I am getting a feeling we are going to see some wild swings. To me the entire market is beginning to look like one big HB stock. Shorts made a boat load of money on those stocks but not without getting their noses bloodied on more than one occasion.

[LA_Renter]

I’m in total agreement with Dave that the market will have to head down unless the S & P can sustain trading above a 21x EPS multiple during a recession (historically the S & P trades at a 10 to 11 multiple in a true bear market). Now how we get there is another story. Consider this

“NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped 4.8 percent in mid-February, the exchange said on Friday, touching an all-time high and suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2260037720080222?rpc=44

Large short interest + big money managers = spectacular short squeezes. I am getting a feeling we are going to see some wild swings. To me the entire market is beginning to look like one big HB stock. Shorts made a boat load of money on those stocks but not without getting their noses bloodied on more than one occasion.

[LA_Renter]

I’m in total agreement with Dave that the market will have to head down unless the S & P can sustain trading above a 21x EPS multiple during a recession (historically the S & P trades at a 10 to 11 multiple in a true bear market). Now how we get there is another story. Consider this

“NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped 4.8 percent in mid-February, the exchange said on Friday, touching an all-time high and suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2260037720080222?rpc=44

Large short interest + big money managers = spectacular short squeezes. I am getting a feeling we are going to see some wild swings. To me the entire market is beginning to look like one big HB stock. Shorts made a boat load of money on those stocks but not without getting their noses bloodied on more than one occasion.

[LA_Renter]

I’m in total agreement with Dave that the market will have to head down unless the S & P can sustain trading above a 21x EPS multiple during a recession (historically the S & P trades at a 10 to 11 multiple in a true bear market). Now how we get there is another story. Consider this

“NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped 4.8 percent in mid-February, the exchange said on Friday, touching an all-time high and suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2260037720080222?rpc=44

Large short interest + big money managers = spectacular short squeezes. I am getting a feeling we are going to see some wild swings. To me the entire market is beginning to look like one big HB stock. Shorts made a boat load of money on those stocks but not without getting their noses bloodied on more than one occasion.

[LA_Renter]

I’m in total agreement with Dave that the market will have to head down unless the S & P can sustain trading above a 21x EPS multiple during a recession (historically the S & P trades at a 10 to 11 multiple in a true bear market). Now how we get there is another story. Consider this

“NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped 4.8 percent in mid-February, the exchange said on Friday, touching an all-time high and suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2260037720080222?rpc=44

Large short interest + big money managers = spectacular short squeezes. I am getting a feeling we are going to see some wild swings. To me the entire market is beginning to look like one big HB stock. Shorts made a boat load of money on those stocks but not without getting their noses bloodied on more than one occasion.

[davelj]

I’m sympathetic to Chris’s views as a trader because it’s so hard to game the short-term machinations of the market, and a “technical system” – for lack of a better description – such as one that Chris uses is almost certainly better than using fundamentals in the short term.

Having said that, I have my doubts as to whether such systems are going to “work” properly in the current environment because the credit/insolvency crisis (which is “fundamental” in nature) that we’re witnessing is so rare. Therefore, using past trading data – which is the basis for all technical systems – isn’t of much use unless it incorporates and heavily emphasizes those previous periods that are similar to this one, such as the lead-up to the ’90-’91 and ’80-’82 recessions. Obviously, I could be totally wrong, but I think we’re in very rarely charted territory and one could argue downright uncharted territory when taking into account the derivative situation.

EPS on the S&P 500 were $85.19 in 2006. Including the financials write-downs and the huge GE write-down, EPS were $71.56 for 2007. For 2008, the EPS estimate began at $92.30 in March of ’07 and is now at $71.20… and that assumes 20%+ Y/Y growth in the second half of ’08. Given that we are likely just creeping into recession (or perhaps have been in one for the last couple of months), it seems HIGHLY unlikely that we’re going to see 20% Y/E EPS growth on the S&P in the second half; thus we could easily see $65 in EPS in 2008 which, by the way, gets us back to NORMAL profit margins on the S&P historically. That means we could very well be trading at a 21x EPS multiple on (finally) normalized earnings power for 2008. That ain’t cheap.

Jeremy Grantham recently said that trend line (that is, “mean reverting”) margins, earnings and valuations (assuming interest rates are similar to today’s) puts the S&P at 1100 in 2011 – that’s 18% below today’s prices. Again, I realize that I’m talking about fundamentals here, but no matter where this market rallies over the next couple of months, I think the intermediate term trajectory – that is, over the next 12-18 months, is down down down. At some point, the fundamentals matter and the long-awaited mean reversion will kick in, just as it did briefly in 2001-2002. And regardless of who’s President, they ain’t gonna be able to save the credit markets from a severe ass whoopin’.

Again, day-to-day trading… who knows? The credit markets are screaming that something’s seriously wrong. Eventually the equity market’s going to listen. The tail can’t wag the dog forever.

[davelj]

I’m sympathetic to Chris’s views as a trader because it’s so hard to game the short-term machinations of the market, and a “technical system” – for lack of a better description – such as one that Chris uses is almost certainly better than using fundamentals in the short term.

Having said that, I have my doubts as to whether such systems are going to “work” properly in the current environment because the credit/insolvency crisis (which is “fundamental” in nature) that we’re witnessing is so rare. Therefore, using past trading data – which is the basis for all technical systems – isn’t of much use unless it incorporates and heavily emphasizes those previous periods that are similar to this one, such as the lead-up to the ’90-’91 and ’80-’82 recessions. Obviously, I could be totally wrong, but I think we’re in very rarely charted territory and one could argue downright uncharted territory when taking into account the derivative situation.

EPS on the S&P 500 were $85.19 in 2006. Including the financials write-downs and the huge GE write-down, EPS were $71.56 for 2007. For 2008, the EPS estimate began at $92.30 in March of ’07 and is now at $71.20… and that assumes 20%+ Y/Y growth in the second half of ’08. Given that we are likely just creeping into recession (or perhaps have been in one for the last couple of months), it seems HIGHLY unlikely that we’re going to see 20% Y/E EPS growth on the S&P in the second half; thus we could easily see $65 in EPS in 2008 which, by the way, gets us back to NORMAL profit margins on the S&P historically. That means we could very well be trading at a 21x EPS multiple on (finally) normalized earnings power for 2008. That ain’t cheap.

Jeremy Grantham recently said that trend line (that is, “mean reverting”) margins, earnings and valuations (assuming interest rates are similar to today’s) puts the S&P at 1100 in 2011 – that’s 18% below today’s prices. Again, I realize that I’m talking about fundamentals here, but no matter where this market rallies over the next couple of months, I think the intermediate term trajectory – that is, over the next 12-18 months, is down down down. At some point, the fundamentals matter and the long-awaited mean reversion will kick in, just as it did briefly in 2001-2002. And regardless of who’s President, they ain’t gonna be able to save the credit markets from a severe ass whoopin’.

Again, day-to-day trading… who knows? The credit markets are screaming that something’s seriously wrong. Eventually the equity market’s going to listen. The tail can’t wag the dog forever.

[davelj]

I’m sympathetic to Chris’s views as a trader because it’s so hard to game the short-term machinations of the market, and a “technical system” – for lack of a better description – such as one that Chris uses is almost certainly better than using fundamentals in the short term.

Having said that, I have my doubts as to whether such systems are going to “work” properly in the current environment because the credit/insolvency crisis (which is “fundamental” in nature) that we’re witnessing is so rare. Therefore, using past trading data – which is the basis for all technical systems – isn’t of much use unless it incorporates and heavily emphasizes those previous periods that are similar to this one, such as the lead-up to the ’90-’91 and ’80-’82 recessions. Obviously, I could be totally wrong, but I think we’re in very rarely charted territory and one could argue downright uncharted territory when taking into account the derivative situation.

EPS on the S&P 500 were $85.19 in 2006. Including the financials write-downs and the huge GE write-down, EPS were $71.56 for 2007. For 2008, the EPS estimate began at $92.30 in March of ’07 and is now at $71.20… and that assumes 20%+ Y/Y growth in the second half of ’08. Given that we are likely just creeping into recession (or perhaps have been in one for the last couple of months), it seems HIGHLY unlikely that we’re going to see 20% Y/E EPS growth on the S&P in the second half; thus we could easily see $65 in EPS in 2008 which, by the way, gets us back to NORMAL profit margins on the S&P historically. That means we could very well be trading at a 21x EPS multiple on (finally) normalized earnings power for 2008. That ain’t cheap.

Jeremy Grantham recently said that trend line (that is, “mean reverting”) margins, earnings and valuations (assuming interest rates are similar to today’s) puts the S&P at 1100 in 2011 – that’s 18% below today’s prices. Again, I realize that I’m talking about fundamentals here, but no matter where this market rallies over the next couple of months, I think the intermediate term trajectory – that is, over the next 12-18 months, is down down down. At some point, the fundamentals matter and the long-awaited mean reversion will kick in, just as it did briefly in 2001-2002. And regardless of who’s President, they ain’t gonna be able to save the credit markets from a severe ass whoopin’.

Again, day-to-day trading… who knows? The credit markets are screaming that something’s seriously wrong. Eventually the equity market’s going to listen. The tail can’t wag the dog forever.

[davelj]

I’m sympathetic to Chris’s views as a trader because it’s so hard to game the short-term machinations of the market, and a “technical system” – for lack of a better description – such as one that Chris uses is almost certainly better than using fundamentals in the short term.

Having said that, I have my doubts as to whether such systems are going to “work” properly in the current environment because the credit/insolvency crisis (which is “fundamental” in nature) that we’re witnessing is so rare. Therefore, using past trading data – which is the basis for all technical systems – isn’t of much use unless it incorporates and heavily emphasizes those previous periods that are similar to this one, such as the lead-up to the ’90-’91 and ’80-’82 recessions. Obviously, I could be totally wrong, but I think we’re in very rarely charted territory and one could argue downright uncharted territory when taking into account the derivative situation.

EPS on the S&P 500 were $85.19 in 2006. Including the financials write-downs and the huge GE write-down, EPS were $71.56 for 2007. For 2008, the EPS estimate began at $92.30 in March of ’07 and is now at $71.20… and that assumes 20%+ Y/Y growth in the second half of ’08. Given that we are likely just creeping into recession (or perhaps have been in one for the last couple of months), it seems HIGHLY unlikely that we’re going to see 20% Y/E EPS growth on the S&P in the second half; thus we could easily see $65 in EPS in 2008 which, by the way, gets us back to NORMAL profit margins on the S&P historically. That means we could very well be trading at a 21x EPS multiple on (finally) normalized earnings power for 2008. That ain’t cheap.

Jeremy Grantham recently said that trend line (that is, “mean reverting”) margins, earnings and valuations (assuming interest rates are similar to today’s) puts the S&P at 1100 in 2011 – that’s 18% below today’s prices. Again, I realize that I’m talking about fundamentals here, but no matter where this market rallies over the next couple of months, I think the intermediate term trajectory – that is, over the next 12-18 months, is down down down. At some point, the fundamentals matter and the long-awaited mean reversion will kick in, just as it did briefly in 2001-2002. And regardless of who’s President, they ain’t gonna be able to save the credit markets from a severe ass whoopin’.

Again, day-to-day trading… who knows? The credit markets are screaming that something’s seriously wrong. Eventually the equity market’s going to listen. The tail can’t wag the dog forever.

[kewp]

Chris_S,

Pass the dutchie to the left hand side.

Seriously.

If there is a PPT (and there may well be), there wasn’t enough of a plunge to wake them from their crypts.

Check the tickers, their was a last-minute rally on financials when there was a rumor Ambac might be rescued.

Believe it or not, large masses of individual investors reacting to rumors can swing the market pretty wildly.

[HereWeGo]

Yeah, it looked more like a short squeeze coupled with rapid recoginition of a short squeeze. **ZOOM**

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

No worries Josh, the big difference between my approach and most in here, is that mine is devoid of emotion and opinions. My comments are based on what has happened historically during election years, and declining interest rate environments. If everyone thought a big rally was imminent, it would not happen. I was pummelled in here 2 years ago for calling the big rally and guess what, it happened.

It is always possible that this year will be an exception, but the adage is something like the following. The favorite may not always win, but when betting that is the way to bet. I will bet on the 80% probability vs the 20% every time, and be willing to lose on those 2 out of ten occurences.

Dave, one of the things about trading systems is that they typically have their runs, and then lose their effectiveness to some degree. When to pull the plug on them is always the hardest decision. I am constantly adapting them to current environments, and at a much faster pace than previously. The world changes more quickly than it used to nowadays.

I just try and provide a differing view in here, generally call my shots in advance, and have not been wrong much in terms of market direction. However, I use stops and do have losing trades, so this upcoming long trade may be one of them, but I will do it. I am hoping for one more dip to make a lower low for the year, then I will go in. If the new low does not occur, I will still go long in March sometime most likely.

For those who do not believe in the concept of the PPT, you just saw it live, via a leaked story to a reporter. They do exist, I learned it from someone who is now in his late sixties and used to recieve some of the phone calls when he ran a big institutional fund. There is market manipulation everywhere, sometimes it is easier to see than others. We were about to break down out of a widely watched technical pattern on a Friday, and some of the largest down days in history have happened on Mondays, the insiders did not want that so they leaked that story to trigger some futures buy programs, which are always vulnerable to being triggered during the last hour of trading due to how they operate. This is how the game works, once you know that it is much easier to see it coming.

[barnaby33]

Chris, we certainly agree on rampant manipulation. Friday was a textbook perfect example. Unfortunately I am not heading down the path of technical analysis as fast as maybe I should; which means I wasn’t aware of a pattern breaking down. I do know that in lay terms it was setting up to be an awful accelerating sell-off into the close. Somebody seemed to be defending key levels on several stocks I am very short.

Ultimately the trading systems you are talking about get at the heart of the manipulation. When that fails the system fails. I hope/fear we are getting quickly to the point where the markets cannot be defended, at least in so obvious a fashion and we get a *needed* correction.

Stock prices are highly manipulable, but credit markets aren’t, or at least aren’t any more. Thats why they are locked up. People with real money don’t want to play because they’ve been lied to. First by the non-bank credit creation, now by the FED and the banks. Until a crash occurs and the crap comes to light nothing will unlock those markets. All of which implies that the stock market is pretty much guaranteed to go down.

The major crashes are always credit driven. In a fiat system they always will be. The powers that be will paper things over until they can’t.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Chris, we certainly agree on rampant manipulation. Friday was a textbook perfect example. Unfortunately I am not heading down the path of technical analysis as fast as maybe I should; which means I wasn’t aware of a pattern breaking down. I do know that in lay terms it was setting up to be an awful accelerating sell-off into the close. Somebody seemed to be defending key levels on several stocks I am very short.

Ultimately the trading systems you are talking about get at the heart of the manipulation. When that fails the system fails. I hope/fear we are getting quickly to the point where the markets cannot be defended, at least in so obvious a fashion and we get a *needed* correction.

Stock prices are highly manipulable, but credit markets aren’t, or at least aren’t any more. Thats why they are locked up. People with real money don’t want to play because they’ve been lied to. First by the non-bank credit creation, now by the FED and the banks. Until a crash occurs and the crap comes to light nothing will unlock those markets. All of which implies that the stock market is pretty much guaranteed to go down.

The major crashes are always credit driven. In a fiat system they always will be. The powers that be will paper things over until they can’t.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Chris, we certainly agree on rampant manipulation. Friday was a textbook perfect example. Unfortunately I am not heading down the path of technical analysis as fast as maybe I should; which means I wasn’t aware of a pattern breaking down. I do know that in lay terms it was setting up to be an awful accelerating sell-off into the close. Somebody seemed to be defending key levels on several stocks I am very short.

Ultimately the trading systems you are talking about get at the heart of the manipulation. When that fails the system fails. I hope/fear we are getting quickly to the point where the markets cannot be defended, at least in so obvious a fashion and we get a *needed* correction.

Stock prices are highly manipulable, but credit markets aren’t, or at least aren’t any more. Thats why they are locked up. People with real money don’t want to play because they’ve been lied to. First by the non-bank credit creation, now by the FED and the banks. Until a crash occurs and the crap comes to light nothing will unlock those markets. All of which implies that the stock market is pretty much guaranteed to go down.

The major crashes are always credit driven. In a fiat system they always will be. The powers that be will paper things over until they can’t.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Chris, we certainly agree on rampant manipulation. Friday was a textbook perfect example. Unfortunately I am not heading down the path of technical analysis as fast as maybe I should; which means I wasn’t aware of a pattern breaking down. I do know that in lay terms it was setting up to be an awful accelerating sell-off into the close. Somebody seemed to be defending key levels on several stocks I am very short.

Ultimately the trading systems you are talking about get at the heart of the manipulation. When that fails the system fails. I hope/fear we are getting quickly to the point where the markets cannot be defended, at least in so obvious a fashion and we get a *needed* correction.

Stock prices are highly manipulable, but credit markets aren’t, or at least aren’t any more. Thats why they are locked up. People with real money don’t want to play because they’ve been lied to. First by the non-bank credit creation, now by the FED and the banks. Until a crash occurs and the crap comes to light nothing will unlock those markets. All of which implies that the stock market is pretty much guaranteed to go down.

The major crashes are always credit driven. In a fiat system they always will be. The powers that be will paper things over until they can’t.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Chris, we certainly agree on rampant manipulation. Friday was a textbook perfect example. Unfortunately I am not heading down the path of technical analysis as fast as maybe I should; which means I wasn’t aware of a pattern breaking down. I do know that in lay terms it was setting up to be an awful accelerating sell-off into the close. Somebody seemed to be defending key levels on several stocks I am very short.

Ultimately the trading systems you are talking about get at the heart of the manipulation. When that fails the system fails. I hope/fear we are getting quickly to the point where the markets cannot be defended, at least in so obvious a fashion and we get a *needed* correction.

Stock prices are highly manipulable, but credit markets aren’t, or at least aren’t any more. Thats why they are locked up. People with real money don’t want to play because they’ve been lied to. First by the non-bank credit creation, now by the FED and the banks. Until a crash occurs and the crap comes to light nothing will unlock those markets. All of which implies that the stock market is pretty much guaranteed to go down.

The major crashes are always credit driven. In a fiat system they always will be. The powers that be will paper things over until they can’t.

Josh

[sdduuuude]

Chris – is this the dip you were waiting for ?
Down 265 today.

I’ve been seriously thinking about pulling out of the market for the whole year.

Don’t worries that we are in the beginning of a recession play into your model? I believe historically, the start of recessions is the time to get out, and the time to jump in is about the middle of the recession. We may not be in the middle of this recession until Summer.

Edit: Ended 315 down.

[sdduuuude]

Chris – is this the dip you were waiting for ?
Down 265 today.

I’ve been seriously thinking about pulling out of the market for the whole year.

Don’t worries that we are in the beginning of a recession play into your model? I believe historically, the start of recessions is the time to get out, and the time to jump in is about the middle of the recession. We may not be in the middle of this recession until Summer.

Edit: Ended 315 down.

[sdduuuude]

Chris – is this the dip you were waiting for ?
Down 265 today.

I’ve been seriously thinking about pulling out of the market for the whole year.

Don’t worries that we are in the beginning of a recession play into your model? I believe historically, the start of recessions is the time to get out, and the time to jump in is about the middle of the recession. We may not be in the middle of this recession until Summer.

Edit: Ended 315 down.

[sdduuuude]

Chris – is this the dip you were waiting for ?
Down 265 today.

I’ve been seriously thinking about pulling out of the market for the whole year.

Don’t worries that we are in the beginning of a recession play into your model? I believe historically, the start of recessions is the time to get out, and the time to jump in is about the middle of the recession. We may not be in the middle of this recession until Summer.

Edit: Ended 315 down.

[sdduuuude]

Chris – is this the dip you were waiting for ?
Down 265 today.

I’ve been seriously thinking about pulling out of the market for the whole year.

Don’t worries that we are in the beginning of a recession play into your model? I believe historically, the start of recessions is the time to get out, and the time to jump in is about the middle of the recession. We may not be in the middle of this recession until Summer.

Edit: Ended 315 down.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

No worries Josh, the big difference between my approach and most in here, is that mine is devoid of emotion and opinions. My comments are based on what has happened historically during election years, and declining interest rate environments. If everyone thought a big rally was imminent, it would not happen. I was pummelled in here 2 years ago for calling the big rally and guess what, it happened.

It is always possible that this year will be an exception, but the adage is something like the following. The favorite may not always win, but when betting that is the way to bet. I will bet on the 80% probability vs the 20% every time, and be willing to lose on those 2 out of ten occurences.

Dave, one of the things about trading systems is that they typically have their runs, and then lose their effectiveness to some degree. When to pull the plug on them is always the hardest decision. I am constantly adapting them to current environments, and at a much faster pace than previously. The world changes more quickly than it used to nowadays.

I just try and provide a differing view in here, generally call my shots in advance, and have not been wrong much in terms of market direction. However, I use stops and do have losing trades, so this upcoming long trade may be one of them, but I will do it. I am hoping for one more dip to make a lower low for the year, then I will go in. If the new low does not occur, I will still go long in March sometime most likely.

For those who do not believe in the concept of the PPT, you just saw it live, via a leaked story to a reporter. They do exist, I learned it from someone who is now in his late sixties and used to recieve some of the phone calls when he ran a big institutional fund. There is market manipulation everywhere, sometimes it is easier to see than others. We were about to break down out of a widely watched technical pattern on a Friday, and some of the largest down days in history have happened on Mondays, the insiders did not want that so they leaked that story to trigger some futures buy programs, which are always vulnerable to being triggered during the last hour of trading due to how they operate. This is how the game works, once you know that it is much easier to see it coming.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

No worries Josh, the big difference between my approach and most in here, is that mine is devoid of emotion and opinions. My comments are based on what has happened historically during election years, and declining interest rate environments. If everyone thought a big rally was imminent, it would not happen. I was pummelled in here 2 years ago for calling the big rally and guess what, it happened.

It is always possible that this year will be an exception, but the adage is something like the following. The favorite may not always win, but when betting that is the way to bet. I will bet on the 80% probability vs the 20% every time, and be willing to lose on those 2 out of ten occurences.

Dave, one of the things about trading systems is that they typically have their runs, and then lose their effectiveness to some degree. When to pull the plug on them is always the hardest decision. I am constantly adapting them to current environments, and at a much faster pace than previously. The world changes more quickly than it used to nowadays.

I just try and provide a differing view in here, generally call my shots in advance, and have not been wrong much in terms of market direction. However, I use stops and do have losing trades, so this upcoming long trade may be one of them, but I will do it. I am hoping for one more dip to make a lower low for the year, then I will go in. If the new low does not occur, I will still go long in March sometime most likely.

For those who do not believe in the concept of the PPT, you just saw it live, via a leaked story to a reporter. They do exist, I learned it from someone who is now in his late sixties and used to recieve some of the phone calls when he ran a big institutional fund. There is market manipulation everywhere, sometimes it is easier to see than others. We were about to break down out of a widely watched technical pattern on a Friday, and some of the largest down days in history have happened on Mondays, the insiders did not want that so they leaked that story to trigger some futures buy programs, which are always vulnerable to being triggered during the last hour of trading due to how they operate. This is how the game works, once you know that it is much easier to see it coming.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

No worries Josh, the big difference between my approach and most in here, is that mine is devoid of emotion and opinions. My comments are based on what has happened historically during election years, and declining interest rate environments. If everyone thought a big rally was imminent, it would not happen. I was pummelled in here 2 years ago for calling the big rally and guess what, it happened.

It is always possible that this year will be an exception, but the adage is something like the following. The favorite may not always win, but when betting that is the way to bet. I will bet on the 80% probability vs the 20% every time, and be willing to lose on those 2 out of ten occurences.

Dave, one of the things about trading systems is that they typically have their runs, and then lose their effectiveness to some degree. When to pull the plug on them is always the hardest decision. I am constantly adapting them to current environments, and at a much faster pace than previously. The world changes more quickly than it used to nowadays.

I just try and provide a differing view in here, generally call my shots in advance, and have not been wrong much in terms of market direction. However, I use stops and do have losing trades, so this upcoming long trade may be one of them, but I will do it. I am hoping for one more dip to make a lower low for the year, then I will go in. If the new low does not occur, I will still go long in March sometime most likely.

For those who do not believe in the concept of the PPT, you just saw it live, via a leaked story to a reporter. They do exist, I learned it from someone who is now in his late sixties and used to recieve some of the phone calls when he ran a big institutional fund. There is market manipulation everywhere, sometimes it is easier to see than others. We were about to break down out of a widely watched technical pattern on a Friday, and some of the largest down days in history have happened on Mondays, the insiders did not want that so they leaked that story to trigger some futures buy programs, which are always vulnerable to being triggered during the last hour of trading due to how they operate. This is how the game works, once you know that it is much easier to see it coming.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

No worries Josh, the big difference between my approach and most in here, is that mine is devoid of emotion and opinions. My comments are based on what has happened historically during election years, and declining interest rate environments. If everyone thought a big rally was imminent, it would not happen. I was pummelled in here 2 years ago for calling the big rally and guess what, it happened.

It is always possible that this year will be an exception, but the adage is something like the following. The favorite may not always win, but when betting that is the way to bet. I will bet on the 80% probability vs the 20% every time, and be willing to lose on those 2 out of ten occurences.

Dave, one of the things about trading systems is that they typically have their runs, and then lose their effectiveness to some degree. When to pull the plug on them is always the hardest decision. I am constantly adapting them to current environments, and at a much faster pace than previously. The world changes more quickly than it used to nowadays.

I just try and provide a differing view in here, generally call my shots in advance, and have not been wrong much in terms of market direction. However, I use stops and do have losing trades, so this upcoming long trade may be one of them, but I will do it. I am hoping for one more dip to make a lower low for the year, then I will go in. If the new low does not occur, I will still go long in March sometime most likely.

For those who do not believe in the concept of the PPT, you just saw it live, via a leaked story to a reporter. They do exist, I learned it from someone who is now in his late sixties and used to recieve some of the phone calls when he ran a big institutional fund. There is market manipulation everywhere, sometimes it is easier to see than others. We were about to break down out of a widely watched technical pattern on a Friday, and some of the largest down days in history have happened on Mondays, the insiders did not want that so they leaked that story to trigger some futures buy programs, which are always vulnerable to being triggered during the last hour of trading due to how they operate. This is how the game works, once you know that it is much easier to see it coming.

[HereWeGo]

Yeah, it looked more like a short squeeze coupled with rapid recoginition of a short squeeze. **ZOOM**

[HereWeGo]

Yeah, it looked more like a short squeeze coupled with rapid recoginition of a short squeeze. **ZOOM**

[HereWeGo]

Yeah, it looked more like a short squeeze coupled with rapid recoginition of a short squeeze. **ZOOM**

[HereWeGo]

Yeah, it looked more like a short squeeze coupled with rapid recoginition of a short squeeze. **ZOOM**

[kewp]

Chris_S,

Pass the dutchie to the left hand side.

Seriously.

If there is a PPT (and there may well be), there wasn’t enough of a plunge to wake them from their crypts.

Check the tickers, their was a last-minute rally on financials when there was a rumor Ambac might be rescued.

Believe it or not, large masses of individual investors reacting to rumors can swing the market pretty wildly.

[kewp]

Chris_S,

Pass the dutchie to the left hand side.

Seriously.

If there is a PPT (and there may well be), there wasn’t enough of a plunge to wake them from their crypts.

Check the tickers, their was a last-minute rally on financials when there was a rumor Ambac might be rescued.

Believe it or not, large masses of individual investors reacting to rumors can swing the market pretty wildly.

[kewp]

Chris_S,

Pass the dutchie to the left hand side.

Seriously.

If there is a PPT (and there may well be), there wasn’t enough of a plunge to wake them from their crypts.

Check the tickers, their was a last-minute rally on financials when there was a rumor Ambac might be rescued.

Believe it or not, large masses of individual investors reacting to rumors can swing the market pretty wildly.

[kewp]

Chris_S,

Pass the dutchie to the left hand side.

Seriously.

If there is a PPT (and there may well be), there wasn’t enough of a plunge to wake them from their crypts.

Check the tickers, their was a last-minute rally on financials when there was a rumor Ambac might be rescued.

Believe it or not, large masses of individual investors reacting to rumors can swing the market pretty wildly.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

That was the PPT at work, whenever you see the last hour save that is what is behind it. We are close to a very bullish time period, many insiders are aware of this bullish cycle, so some of the move could have been positioning for that, but I doubt it. We are still about 2-4 weeks from the ideal entry based on cycles, but it could take off at any time now in my opinion.

Net net that last hour did not mean anything in the big picture, but it is time to find the stocks you want to buy and start buying them for the election year rally that typically starts in March.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

That was the PPT at work, whenever you see the last hour save that is what is behind it. We are close to a very bullish time period, many insiders are aware of this bullish cycle, so some of the move could have been positioning for that, but I doubt it. We are still about 2-4 weeks from the ideal entry based on cycles, but it could take off at any time now in my opinion.

Net net that last hour did not mean anything in the big picture, but it is time to find the stocks you want to buy and start buying them for the election year rally that typically starts in March.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

That was the PPT at work, whenever you see the last hour save that is what is behind it. We are close to a very bullish time period, many insiders are aware of this bullish cycle, so some of the move could have been positioning for that, but I doubt it. We are still about 2-4 weeks from the ideal entry based on cycles, but it could take off at any time now in my opinion.

Net net that last hour did not mean anything in the big picture, but it is time to find the stocks you want to buy and start buying them for the election year rally that typically starts in March.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

That was the PPT at work, whenever you see the last hour save that is what is behind it. We are close to a very bullish time period, many insiders are aware of this bullish cycle, so some of the move could have been positioning for that, but I doubt it. We are still about 2-4 weeks from the ideal entry based on cycles, but it could take off at any time now in my opinion.

Net net that last hour did not mean anything in the big picture, but it is time to find the stocks you want to buy and start buying them for the election year rally that typically starts in March.

[Deal Hunter]

I wouldn’t read too much into the rally. Before the boom times hit again the DOW will dip to 10,000 or less. At least one, perhaps 2 big banks will close up shop (JP MOrgan on the inv bank side and perhaps Wells Fargo or Citigroup on the commercial bank side).

There will be a massive tax reform and some level of privitizaion of social security. The tax reform will boost the housing market or level it off and the privitazation of ss will boost the stock market.

The double edged sword will be that once social security is in private hands, politicians and fed reservists will no longer be able to manipulate money supply and interest rates as easily as they did in the past. This is not altogether a bad thing, though.

[hipmatt]

FYI.. boom times not back yet.

but INFLATION is here to stay

“Having neither the will nor the means to confront our major economic challenges, Washington is instead hanging its hopes on words alone. This week, despite the clearest signs yet that the dollar is in critical condition, President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson tried to provide reassurance by once again invoking the name of the mythical “strong dollar policy”. Meanwhile across town, with the latest crop of inflation figures pointing to the greatest price surges in a generation, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke tried to do the Administration one better by insisting that inflation expectations remained “well anchored”, and that stagflation was nowhere in sight.

The truth is that Bernanke’s view that inflation expectations are “anchored” should be afforded as much respect as his prior pronouncements that the subprime mortgage problems were “contained”. With official inflation numbers, such as PPI, CPI, and import prices showing unacceptably high levels of inflation, the dollar hitting new all-time lows, and market indicators, such gold, silver, oil and agricultural commodities all heading straight up, the Fed Chairman risks losing what’s left of his credibility.

Bernanke contends that the source of our inflation is rising commodity prices, which he attributes to strong global demand. This is Bernanke’s attempt to shift the blame for inflation to external factors beyond his control. This of course completely misses the point that increased global demand is a direct result of the rapid increase in global money supply, the source of which is Bernanke himself. This Alfred E. Newman routine is obviously wearing thin as the dollar seems to tick down and gold ticks up every time Bernanke completes a sentence.

The biggest factor pumping up demand around the globe is the Fed’s excessive money creation and irresponsible monetary easing, which requires foreign central banks to follow suit to keep their own currencies in relative alignment with the dollar. Of course, some increased demand is genuine, but that demand is being met by increased supply. It is only the artificial demand created by inflation that is pushing up prices.

Amazingly, Bernanke feels that rising food and energy prices themselves do not present a problem as long as the increases are contained in those areas. In other words, as long as these costs can be excluded from the officially messaged PCE deflator, Bernanke doesn’t care if American families have to pay more to feed their families, heat their homes, and drive to work. But if these basic costs continue to rise, it doesn’t matter what happens to prices of other goods as few people will have any money left to buy them.

Bernanke also seem to think that if the economy does somehow slip into recession, that inflation will subside as a consequence. This is pure nonsense, as diminished demand here at home will be offset by enhanced demand abroad. As a weak dollar forces Americans to cut back on their consumption, strengthening foreign currencies will give foreigners added purchasing power to consume more. Therefore fewer foreign made products will be imported while more domestic made, or in most cases grown, products will be exported. The result will be reduced domestic supply putting additional upward pressure on prices.

Equally naïve is the concept that the Fed can stabilize the economy now by slashing interest rates while holding out the hope that future inflation could be reined in through aggressive rate hikes in the future. Even if a recession could be avoided by easing, our economy is so dependent on cheap debt, that as soon as Bernanke reaches for his hawk mask, the economy would immediately destabilize, necessitating a fresh round of rate cuts and still more inflation. If Bernanke really were serious about fighting inflation he would do it right now. By postponing the cure he simply allows the disease to get that much worse.

Of course Bernanke is not the only one in denial. Wall Street’s brain trust has recently devised many explanations that rationalize the inflation problem. For example, some argue that falling housing prices are deflationary, and negate the impact of other prices that happen to be rising. While it may be true that home prices are falling, the costs associated with home ownership itself are rising. Most homeowners are not only facing rising mortgage payments, but higher insurance, maintenance, utilities and taxes. In addition to those costs, potential home buyers also face higher down payments and tighter lending standards as well! Also, when home prices were rising few considered it an inflation problem, so why should those very people consider the reverse deflation?

Others talk about “food inflation” or “energy inflation” as if there were different kinds. There is only one type of inflation, which is an expansion of the supply of money and credit. Prices do not inflate; they merely rise and fall. When people refer to rising food prices as being “food inflation”, they are shifting the blame for inflation to rising food prices, rather than attributing the rise in food prices to inflation itself.

I have heard others maintain that rising commodity prices are merely a supply problem. However, tight supply is a function of the artificial demand created by inflation. If the government handed out million-dollar bills there would be a shortage of Ferrari’s as everyone would want to buy one.

Of course one of the most problematic turn of events is the way some of the Fed’s biggest cheerleaders have turned critics. For example, CNBC’s Larry Kudlow, who just months ago was calling for “Shock and Awe” rate cuts to boost the dollar and revive our “goldilocks economy”, now blames those very rate cuts for pummeling the dollar and the economy. If the Fed cannot instill confidence among its biggest boosters, imagine how this show is playing to a more skeptical audience overseas.”

…. by Peter Schiff

[hipmatt]

FYI.. boom times not back yet.

but INFLATION is here to stay

“Having neither the will nor the means to confront our major economic challenges, Washington is instead hanging its hopes on words alone. This week, despite the clearest signs yet that the dollar is in critical condition, President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson tried to provide reassurance by once again invoking the name of the mythical “strong dollar policy”. Meanwhile across town, with the latest crop of inflation figures pointing to the greatest price surges in a generation, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke tried to do the Administration one better by insisting that inflation expectations remained “well anchored”, and that stagflation was nowhere in sight.

The truth is that Bernanke’s view that inflation expectations are “anchored” should be afforded as much respect as his prior pronouncements that the subprime mortgage problems were “contained”. With official inflation numbers, such as PPI, CPI, and import prices showing unacceptably high levels of inflation, the dollar hitting new all-time lows, and market indicators, such gold, silver, oil and agricultural commodities all heading straight up, the Fed Chairman risks losing what’s left of his credibility.

Bernanke contends that the source of our inflation is rising commodity prices, which he attributes to strong global demand. This is Bernanke’s attempt to shift the blame for inflation to external factors beyond his control. This of course completely misses the point that increased global demand is a direct result of the rapid increase in global money supply, the source of which is Bernanke himself. This Alfred E. Newman routine is obviously wearing thin as the dollar seems to tick down and gold ticks up every time Bernanke completes a sentence.

The biggest factor pumping up demand around the globe is the Fed’s excessive money creation and irresponsible monetary easing, which requires foreign central banks to follow suit to keep their own currencies in relative alignment with the dollar. Of course, some increased demand is genuine, but that demand is being met by increased supply. It is only the artificial demand created by inflation that is pushing up prices.

Amazingly, Bernanke feels that rising food and energy prices themselves do not present a problem as long as the increases are contained in those areas. In other words, as long as these costs can be excluded from the officially messaged PCE deflator, Bernanke doesn’t care if American families have to pay more to feed their families, heat their homes, and drive to work. But if these basic costs continue to rise, it doesn’t matter what happens to prices of other goods as few people will have any money left to buy them.

Bernanke also seem to think that if the economy does somehow slip into recession, that inflation will subside as a consequence. This is pure nonsense, as diminished demand here at home will be offset by enhanced demand abroad. As a weak dollar forces Americans to cut back on their consumption, strengthening foreign currencies will give foreigners added purchasing power to consume more. Therefore fewer foreign made products will be imported while more domestic made, or in most cases grown, products will be exported. The result will be reduced domestic supply putting additional upward pressure on prices.

Equally naïve is the concept that the Fed can stabilize the economy now by slashing interest rates while holding out the hope that future inflation could be reined in through aggressive rate hikes in the future. Even if a recession could be avoided by easing, our economy is so dependent on cheap debt, that as soon as Bernanke reaches for his hawk mask, the economy would immediately destabilize, necessitating a fresh round of rate cuts and still more inflation. If Bernanke really were serious about fighting inflation he would do it right now. By postponing the cure he simply allows the disease to get that much worse.

Of course Bernanke is not the only one in denial. Wall Street’s brain trust has recently devised many explanations that rationalize the inflation problem. For example, some argue that falling housing prices are deflationary, and negate the impact of other prices that happen to be rising. While it may be true that home prices are falling, the costs associated with home ownership itself are rising. Most homeowners are not only facing rising mortgage payments, but higher insurance, maintenance, utilities and taxes. In addition to those costs, potential home buyers also face higher down payments and tighter lending standards as well! Also, when home prices were rising few considered it an inflation problem, so why should those very people consider the reverse deflation?

Others talk about “food inflation” or “energy inflation” as if there were different kinds. There is only one type of inflation, which is an expansion of the supply of money and credit. Prices do not inflate; they merely rise and fall. When people refer to rising food prices as being “food inflation”, they are shifting the blame for inflation to rising food prices, rather than attributing the rise in food prices to inflation itself.

I have heard others maintain that rising commodity prices are merely a supply problem. However, tight supply is a function of the artificial demand created by inflation. If the government handed out million-dollar bills there would be a shortage of Ferrari’s as everyone would want to buy one.

Of course one of the most problematic turn of events is the way some of the Fed’s biggest cheerleaders have turned critics. For example, CNBC’s Larry Kudlow, who just months ago was calling for “Shock and Awe” rate cuts to boost the dollar and revive our “goldilocks economy”, now blames those very rate cuts for pummeling the dollar and the economy. If the Fed cannot instill confidence among its biggest boosters, imagine how this show is playing to a more skeptical audience overseas.”

…. by Peter Schiff

[hipmatt]

FYI.. boom times not back yet.

but INFLATION is here to stay

“Having neither the will nor the means to confront our major economic challenges, Washington is instead hanging its hopes on words alone. This week, despite the clearest signs yet that the dollar is in critical condition, President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson tried to provide reassurance by once again invoking the name of the mythical “strong dollar policy”. Meanwhile across town, with the latest crop of inflation figures pointing to the greatest price surges in a generation, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke tried to do the Administration one better by insisting that inflation expectations remained “well anchored”, and that stagflation was nowhere in sight.

The truth is that Bernanke’s view that inflation expectations are “anchored” should be afforded as much respect as his prior pronouncements that the subprime mortgage problems were “contained”. With official inflation numbers, such as PPI, CPI, and import prices showing unacceptably high levels of inflation, the dollar hitting new all-time lows, and market indicators, such gold, silver, oil and agricultural commodities all heading straight up, the Fed Chairman risks losing what’s left of his credibility.

Bernanke contends that the source of our inflation is rising commodity prices, which he attributes to strong global demand. This is Bernanke’s attempt to shift the blame for inflation to external factors beyond his control. This of course completely misses the point that increased global demand is a direct result of the rapid increase in global money supply, the source of which is Bernanke himself. This Alfred E. Newman routine is obviously wearing thin as the dollar seems to tick down and gold ticks up every time Bernanke completes a sentence.

The biggest factor pumping up demand around the globe is the Fed’s excessive money creation and irresponsible monetary easing, which requires foreign central banks to follow suit to keep their own currencies in relative alignment with the dollar. Of course, some increased demand is genuine, but that demand is being met by increased supply. It is only the artificial demand created by inflation that is pushing up prices.

Amazingly, Bernanke feels that rising food and energy prices themselves do not present a problem as long as the increases are contained in those areas. In other words, as long as these costs can be excluded from the officially messaged PCE deflator, Bernanke doesn’t care if American families have to pay more to feed their families, heat their homes, and drive to work. But if these basic costs continue to rise, it doesn’t matter what happens to prices of other goods as few people will have any money left to buy them.

Bernanke also seem to think that if the economy does somehow slip into recession, that inflation will subside as a consequence. This is pure nonsense, as diminished demand here at home will be offset by enhanced demand abroad. As a weak dollar forces Americans to cut back on their consumption, strengthening foreign currencies will give foreigners added purchasing power to consume more. Therefore fewer foreign made products will be imported while more domestic made, or in most cases grown, products will be exported. The result will be reduced domestic supply putting additional upward pressure on prices.

Equally naïve is the concept that the Fed can stabilize the economy now by slashing interest rates while holding out the hope that future inflation could be reined in through aggressive rate hikes in the future. Even if a recession could be avoided by easing, our economy is so dependent on cheap debt, that as soon as Bernanke reaches for his hawk mask, the economy would immediately destabilize, necessitating a fresh round of rate cuts and still more inflation. If Bernanke really were serious about fighting inflation he would do it right now. By postponing the cure he simply allows the disease to get that much worse.

Of course Bernanke is not the only one in denial. Wall Street’s brain trust has recently devised many explanations that rationalize the inflation problem. For example, some argue that falling housing prices are deflationary, and negate the impact of other prices that happen to be rising. While it may be true that home prices are falling, the costs associated with home ownership itself are rising. Most homeowners are not only facing rising mortgage payments, but higher insurance, maintenance, utilities and taxes. In addition to those costs, potential home buyers also face higher down payments and tighter lending standards as well! Also, when home prices were rising few considered it an inflation problem, so why should those very people consider the reverse deflation?

Others talk about “food inflation” or “energy inflation” as if there were different kinds. There is only one type of inflation, which is an expansion of the supply of money and credit. Prices do not inflate; they merely rise and fall. When people refer to rising food prices as being “food inflation”, they are shifting the blame for inflation to rising food prices, rather than attributing the rise in food prices to inflation itself.

I have heard others maintain that rising commodity prices are merely a supply problem. However, tight supply is a function of the artificial demand created by inflation. If the government handed out million-dollar bills there would be a shortage of Ferrari’s as everyone would want to buy one.

Of course one of the most problematic turn of events is the way some of the Fed’s biggest cheerleaders have turned critics. For example, CNBC’s Larry Kudlow, who just months ago was calling for “Shock and Awe” rate cuts to boost the dollar and revive our “goldilocks economy”, now blames those very rate cuts for pummeling the dollar and the economy. If the Fed cannot instill confidence among its biggest boosters, imagine how this show is playing to a more skeptical audience overseas.”

…. by Peter Schiff

[hipmatt]

FYI.. boom times not back yet.

but INFLATION is here to stay

“Having neither the will nor the means to confront our major economic challenges, Washington is instead hanging its hopes on words alone. This week, despite the clearest signs yet that the dollar is in critical condition, President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson tried to provide reassurance by once again invoking the name of the mythical “strong dollar policy”. Meanwhile across town, with the latest crop of inflation figures pointing to the greatest price surges in a generation, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke tried to do the Administration one better by insisting that inflation expectations remained “well anchored”, and that stagflation was nowhere in sight.

The truth is that Bernanke’s view that inflation expectations are “anchored” should be afforded as much respect as his prior pronouncements that the subprime mortgage problems were “contained”. With official inflation numbers, such as PPI, CPI, and import prices showing unacceptably high levels of inflation, the dollar hitting new all-time lows, and market indicators, such gold, silver, oil and agricultural commodities all heading straight up, the Fed Chairman risks losing what’s left of his credibility.

Bernanke contends that the source of our inflation is rising commodity prices, which he attributes to strong global demand. This is Bernanke’s attempt to shift the blame for inflation to external factors beyond his control. This of course completely misses the point that increased global demand is a direct result of the rapid increase in global money supply, the source of which is Bernanke himself. This Alfred E. Newman routine is obviously wearing thin as the dollar seems to tick down and gold ticks up every time Bernanke completes a sentence.

The biggest factor pumping up demand around the globe is the Fed’s excessive money creation and irresponsible monetary easing, which requires foreign central banks to follow suit to keep their own currencies in relative alignment with the dollar. Of course, some increased demand is genuine, but that demand is being met by increased supply. It is only the artificial demand created by inflation that is pushing up prices.

Amazingly, Bernanke feels that rising food and energy prices themselves do not present a problem as long as the increases are contained in those areas. In other words, as long as these costs can be excluded from the officially messaged PCE deflator, Bernanke doesn’t care if American families have to pay more to feed their families, heat their homes, and drive to work. But if these basic costs continue to rise, it doesn’t matter what happens to prices of other goods as few people will have any money left to buy them.

Bernanke also seem to think that if the economy does somehow slip into recession, that inflation will subside as a consequence. This is pure nonsense, as diminished demand here at home will be offset by enhanced demand abroad. As a weak dollar forces Americans to cut back on their consumption, strengthening foreign currencies will give foreigners added purchasing power to consume more. Therefore fewer foreign made products will be imported while more domestic made, or in most cases grown, products will be exported. The result will be reduced domestic supply putting additional upward pressure on prices.

Equally naïve is the concept that the Fed can stabilize the economy now by slashing interest rates while holding out the hope that future inflation could be reined in through aggressive rate hikes in the future. Even if a recession could be avoided by easing, our economy is so dependent on cheap debt, that as soon as Bernanke reaches for his hawk mask, the economy would immediately destabilize, necessitating a fresh round of rate cuts and still more inflation. If Bernanke really were serious about fighting inflation he would do it right now. By postponing the cure he simply allows the disease to get that much worse.

Of course Bernanke is not the only one in denial. Wall Street’s brain trust has recently devised many explanations that rationalize the inflation problem. For example, some argue that falling housing prices are deflationary, and negate the impact of other prices that happen to be rising. While it may be true that home prices are falling, the costs associated with home ownership itself are rising. Most homeowners are not only facing rising mortgage payments, but higher insurance, maintenance, utilities and taxes. In addition to those costs, potential home buyers also face higher down payments and tighter lending standards as well! Also, when home prices were rising few considered it an inflation problem, so why should those very people consider the reverse deflation?

Others talk about “food inflation” or “energy inflation” as if there were different kinds. There is only one type of inflation, which is an expansion of the supply of money and credit. Prices do not inflate; they merely rise and fall. When people refer to rising food prices as being “food inflation”, they are shifting the blame for inflation to rising food prices, rather than attributing the rise in food prices to inflation itself.

I have heard others maintain that rising commodity prices are merely a supply problem. However, tight supply is a function of the artificial demand created by inflation. If the government handed out million-dollar bills there would be a shortage of Ferrari’s as everyone would want to buy one.

Of course one of the most problematic turn of events is the way some of the Fed’s biggest cheerleaders have turned critics. For example, CNBC’s Larry Kudlow, who just months ago was calling for “Shock and Awe” rate cuts to boost the dollar and revive our “goldilocks economy”, now blames those very rate cuts for pummeling the dollar and the economy. If the Fed cannot instill confidence among its biggest boosters, imagine how this show is playing to a more skeptical audience overseas.”

…. by Peter Schiff

[hipmatt]

FYI.. boom times not back yet.

but INFLATION is here to stay

“Having neither the will nor the means to confront our major economic challenges, Washington is instead hanging its hopes on words alone. This week, despite the clearest signs yet that the dollar is in critical condition, President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson tried to provide reassurance by once again invoking the name of the mythical “strong dollar policy”. Meanwhile across town, with the latest crop of inflation figures pointing to the greatest price surges in a generation, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke tried to do the Administration one better by insisting that inflation expectations remained “well anchored”, and that stagflation was nowhere in sight.

The truth is that Bernanke’s view that inflation expectations are “anchored” should be afforded as much respect as his prior pronouncements that the subprime mortgage problems were “contained”. With official inflation numbers, such as PPI, CPI, and import prices showing unacceptably high levels of inflation, the dollar hitting new all-time lows, and market indicators, such gold, silver, oil and agricultural commodities all heading straight up, the Fed Chairman risks losing what’s left of his credibility.

Bernanke contends that the source of our inflation is rising commodity prices, which he attributes to strong global demand. This is Bernanke’s attempt to shift the blame for inflation to external factors beyond his control. This of course completely misses the point that increased global demand is a direct result of the rapid increase in global money supply, the source of which is Bernanke himself. This Alfred E. Newman routine is obviously wearing thin as the dollar seems to tick down and gold ticks up every time Bernanke completes a sentence.

The biggest factor pumping up demand around the globe is the Fed’s excessive money creation and irresponsible monetary easing, which requires foreign central banks to follow suit to keep their own currencies in relative alignment with the dollar. Of course, some increased demand is genuine, but that demand is being met by increased supply. It is only the artificial demand created by inflation that is pushing up prices.

Amazingly, Bernanke feels that rising food and energy prices themselves do not present a problem as long as the increases are contained in those areas. In other words, as long as these costs can be excluded from the officially messaged PCE deflator, Bernanke doesn’t care if American families have to pay more to feed their families, heat their homes, and drive to work. But if these basic costs continue to rise, it doesn’t matter what happens to prices of other goods as few people will have any money left to buy them.

Bernanke also seem to think that if the economy does somehow slip into recession, that inflation will subside as a consequence. This is pure nonsense, as diminished demand here at home will be offset by enhanced demand abroad. As a weak dollar forces Americans to cut back on their consumption, strengthening foreign currencies will give foreigners added purchasing power to consume more. Therefore fewer foreign made products will be imported while more domestic made, or in most cases grown, products will be exported. The result will be reduced domestic supply putting additional upward pressure on prices.

Equally naïve is the concept that the Fed can stabilize the economy now by slashing interest rates while holding out the hope that future inflation could be reined in through aggressive rate hikes in the future. Even if a recession could be avoided by easing, our economy is so dependent on cheap debt, that as soon as Bernanke reaches for his hawk mask, the economy would immediately destabilize, necessitating a fresh round of rate cuts and still more inflation. If Bernanke really were serious about fighting inflation he would do it right now. By postponing the cure he simply allows the disease to get that much worse.

Of course Bernanke is not the only one in denial. Wall Street’s brain trust has recently devised many explanations that rationalize the inflation problem. For example, some argue that falling housing prices are deflationary, and negate the impact of other prices that happen to be rising. While it may be true that home prices are falling, the costs associated with home ownership itself are rising. Most homeowners are not only facing rising mortgage payments, but higher insurance, maintenance, utilities and taxes. In addition to those costs, potential home buyers also face higher down payments and tighter lending standards as well! Also, when home prices were rising few considered it an inflation problem, so why should those very people consider the reverse deflation?

Others talk about “food inflation” or “energy inflation” as if there were different kinds. There is only one type of inflation, which is an expansion of the supply of money and credit. Prices do not inflate; they merely rise and fall. When people refer to rising food prices as being “food inflation”, they are shifting the blame for inflation to rising food prices, rather than attributing the rise in food prices to inflation itself.

I have heard others maintain that rising commodity prices are merely a supply problem. However, tight supply is a function of the artificial demand created by inflation. If the government handed out million-dollar bills there would be a shortage of Ferrari’s as everyone would want to buy one.

Of course one of the most problematic turn of events is the way some of the Fed’s biggest cheerleaders have turned critics. For example, CNBC’s Larry Kudlow, who just months ago was calling for “Shock and Awe” rate cuts to boost the dollar and revive our “goldilocks economy”, now blames those very rate cuts for pummeling the dollar and the economy. If the Fed cannot instill confidence among its biggest boosters, imagine how this show is playing to a more skeptical audience overseas.”

…. by Peter Schiff

[Deal Hunter]

I wouldn’t read too much into the rally. Before the boom times hit again the DOW will dip to 10,000 or less. At least one, perhaps 2 big banks will close up shop (JP MOrgan on the inv bank side and perhaps Wells Fargo or Citigroup on the commercial bank side).

There will be a massive tax reform and some level of privitizaion of social security. The tax reform will boost the housing market or level it off and the privitazation of ss will boost the stock market.

The double edged sword will be that once social security is in private hands, politicians and fed reservists will no longer be able to manipulate money supply and interest rates as easily as they did in the past. This is not altogether a bad thing, though.

[Deal Hunter]

I wouldn’t read too much into the rally. Before the boom times hit again the DOW will dip to 10,000 or less. At least one, perhaps 2 big banks will close up shop (JP MOrgan on the inv bank side and perhaps Wells Fargo or Citigroup on the commercial bank side).

There will be a massive tax reform and some level of privitizaion of social security. The tax reform will boost the housing market or level it off and the privitazation of ss will boost the stock market.

The double edged sword will be that once social security is in private hands, politicians and fed reservists will no longer be able to manipulate money supply and interest rates as easily as they did in the past. This is not altogether a bad thing, though.

[Deal Hunter]

I wouldn’t read too much into the rally. Before the boom times hit again the DOW will dip to 10,000 or less. At least one, perhaps 2 big banks will close up shop (JP MOrgan on the inv bank side and perhaps Wells Fargo or Citigroup on the commercial bank side).

There will be a massive tax reform and some level of privitizaion of social security. The tax reform will boost the housing market or level it off and the privitazation of ss will boost the stock market.

The double edged sword will be that once social security is in private hands, politicians and fed reservists will no longer be able to manipulate money supply and interest rates as easily as they did in the past. This is not altogether a bad thing, though.

[Deal Hunter]

I wouldn’t read too much into the rally. Before the boom times hit again the DOW will dip to 10,000 or less. At least one, perhaps 2 big banks will close up shop (JP MOrgan on the inv bank side and perhaps Wells Fargo or Citigroup on the commercial bank side).

There will be a massive tax reform and some level of privitizaion of social security. The tax reform will boost the housing market or level it off and the privitazation of ss will boost the stock market.

The double edged sword will be that once social security is in private hands, politicians and fed reservists will no longer be able to manipulate money supply and interest rates as easily as they did in the past. This is not altogether a bad thing, though.

[OC Burns]

Well if it was the PPT as has been suggested, Monday will be quite a show after today’s haircut.

Another round of horrible news followed by a 200 point gain?

[HereWeGo]

We’re in a bear market. This kind of action is typical as such. Weird jumps up, wild plummets down.

I still think commodities will break down in short order. Historically, they go parabolic right before the parabola flips around.

[HereWeGo]

We’re in a bear market. This kind of action is typical as such. Weird jumps up, wild plummets down.

I still think commodities will break down in short order. Historically, they go parabolic right before the parabola flips around.

[HereWeGo]

We’re in a bear market. This kind of action is typical as such. Weird jumps up, wild plummets down.

I still think commodities will break down in short order. Historically, they go parabolic right before the parabola flips around.

[HereWeGo]

We’re in a bear market. This kind of action is typical as such. Weird jumps up, wild plummets down.

I still think commodities will break down in short order. Historically, they go parabolic right before the parabola flips around.

[HereWeGo]

We’re in a bear market. This kind of action is typical as such. Weird jumps up, wild plummets down.

I still think commodities will break down in short order. Historically, they go parabolic right before the parabola flips around.

[OC Burns]

Well if it was the PPT as has been suggested, Monday will be quite a show after today’s haircut.

Another round of horrible news followed by a 200 point gain?

[OC Burns]

Well if it was the PPT as has been suggested, Monday will be quite a show after today’s haircut.

Another round of horrible news followed by a 200 point gain?

[OC Burns]

Well if it was the PPT as has been suggested, Monday will be quite a show after today’s haircut.

Another round of horrible news followed by a 200 point gain?

[OC Burns]

Well if it was the PPT as has been suggested, Monday will be quite a show after today’s haircut.

Another round of horrible news followed by a 200 point gain?

[Author]

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