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October 11, 2007 at 5:09 PM in reply to: Will honest people start doing dirty/crooked things to bail out of their houses #88235October 10, 2007 at 8:28 PM in reply to: So you still think that a 50% correction or more is crazy??? #87955
kev374
ParticipantIf we use history as a guide we can say that this downturn will be much more severe than the early 90s downturn. During that time prices plummetted 20-25% nominal. So using a 1.5 multiplier you get at least 30% nominal decline. That is the MINIMUM. I don’t see how it cannot go down by at least that much, there is nothing right now to prop up the market. But the decline may be delayed by the guerrila government intervention.
October 10, 2007 at 8:28 PM in reply to: So you still think that a 50% correction or more is crazy??? #87958ParticipantIf we use history as a guide we can say that this downturn will be much more severe than the early 90s downturn. During that time prices plummetted 20-25% nominal. So using a 1.5 multiplier you get at least 30% nominal decline. That is the MINIMUM. I don’t see how it cannot go down by at least that much, there is nothing right now to prop up the market. But the decline may be delayed by the guerrila government intervention.
Participant$50,000 tops for this piece of scrap.
I wouldn’t buy it for even that much but it may be a good fit for some redneck.
Participant$50,000 tops for this piece of scrap.
I wouldn’t buy it for even that much but it may be a good fit for some redneck.
Participantthis is a fantastic site and the contributions are always very valuable. A lot of the “data” is available all over the net, start with housingtracker.net. As for predictions, they are just that…predictions based on sound logical inferences. Only god can say for certain what, when and how things can going to happen, so I don’t see your point.
Lastly, I think calling it a bubble implies a burst. I see no burst here. A burst would take some sudden event that reduced prices over the term of weeks, not months. See the internet bubble for an example. If your house goes down 20% over 2-3 years, it’s shouldn’t come as a surprise, and you will have had plenty of opportunity to get out.
A bubble means the asset price is not supported by any sound fundamentals but rather by speculation. And that is VERY true in the case of Real Estate.
As for sudden events, the serious tightening of lending has caused utter turmoil in the industry. Do you even follow the news? And the timeline for prices to come down varies depending on the asset, Real Estate prices don’t come down like stocks due to the logistics involved… a foreclosure goes through NOD, NOT etc. taking at least 90+ days to materialize. People don’t give up on houses that easily because they can live in them and try to delay the inevitable (i.e. getting kicked out of their house), unlike stocks once they’re down that’s it.
Participantamazing how the shows keep changing on TLC to suit the climate…during the boom it was “flip this house” now it is “please by my house” LOL!
Participantwhat complete BS! So the delinquents get continued benefits of the 1% rates while the responsible guy with the good credit gets the 5% rate. I really do not understand what is happening to this country, it was founded on the principle that hard work is rewarded, now this is just getting to be the opposite. Capitalism is only reserved for the ultra rich, the middle class and poor have to deal with increasing socialism.
ParticipantCountrywide makes me nervous, I know I shouldn’t since it’s FDIC insured. Their website has the same 5.5% rate for a 12 month CD and a savings account. Can you say “inverted yield curve”? Well I guess the only benefit would be to lock in the rate but still…
Participantanother reason to marry your own financial equal. This also lessens the chance of disagreements about money which is the #1 cause of divorce statistically. If both earned roughly the same there would be less friction. If a guy earning $100,000/yr married someone making $15/hr and they had different spending habits that would be a disaster.
problem is too many are blinded by the “love” that hardly lasts a couple yrs and after that reality sets in and all the differences that didn’t seem to matter at first are beginning to cause problems. Especially for women, the “Prince charming” syndrome wears off rather quick since the guy can’t keep up with her expectations anymore and then they want to move on and find “Prince charming #2”. The guy is left with no woman, no children and a fat bill!
When they say men are commitment phobic these days I don’t blame them at all! Marriage is a raw deal for men these days!
Society has changed tremendously for women, women work these days and have an equal standing in professional circles, however they still expect the privileges from the old days, privileges that were designed to protect women because they did not work. Those concepts don’t apply anymore!!!
I will add that there are women who are exceptions to the above but very hard to find them!
ParticipantThe dollar has already slipped against the Indian Rupee from 1USD = 46INR in January to 39INR right now, a 15% drop, and it’s still falling, all that outsourcing that seemed like a good idea will slowly become less attractive as costs rise.
I don’t see how devaluation of the dollar can help the economy,
Since we import most of our goods (and even services) from abroad, China, India, Mexico etc. the cost of those goods will escalate. If prices of goods go up consumption will decline.
September 20, 2007 at 12:20 PM in reply to: Mark Faber: Nice synopsis of why this rate cut is BS #85315ParticipantSorry, here is the right link:
http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=399
Another great watch from Jim Rodgers:
Participantnot in my neighborhood of South Orange County, apartment complexes are raising rents 8% but there are tons of properties coming up on Craigslist for bargain prices, CL is a really good resource to find properties from *individuals* who are generally more motivated to price aggressively 😉
ParticipantA good website that gives info on the various indexes is:
ParticipantWhy are you so bitter?
lol, I just got done watching Peter Schiff and was charged 🙂 I guess it irritates me when the government is not acting in the long term interest of the economy but may want to temporarily skew things and put more pain in our future because they want to act like they did something!
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