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JES
ParticipantDuplicate
ParticipantI saw an ad in the WS Journal today that caught my attention. It was a huge financial ad for Lutheran Thrivant Financial for Lutherans or something like that. What caught my eye was the name. They actually appeared to be excluding non-Lutherans by using the phrase ‘for Lutherans.’ I’m curious if that was their intention, and perhaps they only take Lutheran clients? If they are open to anyone I found this to be very bad marketing!
ParticipantThat’s classic vrudny!
I chalk alot of this up to the differences between people and their approach to things. For example, I like to analyze things and am continually adjusting my opinion about issues like the real estate market, the economy, political issues and everything else based on new information that I take in through research and intuition. Because of this, I usually find that I am ahead of the trends and have a good sense of what is happening at any moment in time, which gives me a better ability to predict the near term future.
In stark contrast, I have a friend who is an entrepreneur and owns a moderately sucessful business. He is optimistic to a fault and disregards any information that does not support his preconveived beliefs about his business being sucessful. He is strong willed and pushes ahead without an inkling of doubt that he will succeed. Interestingly, he is also overleveraged on his house and still believes that it will only keep going up. He is now advising me to buy again! Another friend of mine is extremely religious and has even tied his multi level marketing business into his religious beliefs. God is willing him to succeed, and if he merely believes, it will surely happen. He too has closed his mind to new information, advice and trends and pushes ahead even though he has made no money in 7+ years of business. He can’t quit because Amway and Quickstar have brainwashed him into thinking he would be letting down God. On the surface, these two friends sure exude confidence and poise, but I can’t help marvel at how false it is.
Ironically, it’s these two friends who put the most pressue on me not to sell and who would look down on me the most now that we have cashed out. Similar to your relative, I respect them, but also respectfully disagree with their overconfidence, criticism and closed minded approach to everything. They get away with it because on the surface it always appears that all is well even when the business is failing and the home equity is stretched to the limit.
Participant“A general state of pessimism over the Iraq war is causing people to wait to buy…”
ParticipantIt’s also fun when extended family get involved and look down on you for ‘selling out.’ That pressure alone was almost enough to keep me from selling. But I did anyway and since the sale have felt more isolated, even though we are being proven right by the market. All sorts of emotions come into play. The perception that family develop that you don’t manage your finances well enough to be able to afford a house, for starters. Never mind the fact that everyone else in the family has ARMS, and one I know of paid 200k for a house now worth 700k, and somehow now has no equity at all. Owning a home goes beyond pure financial matters and speaks to your worth as a man by God! The American dream with a white picket fence!
We often talk about forclosures, but even those who aren’t that deep in trouble can find themselves financialy screwed. EG: Three relatives above, all make approx 90k-120k/year. One paid 650 for a home worth 650. Another paid 1 million, now worth 950 (2 months later), and the last paid 470, now worth 725 or so. All three have used equity loans, and all three have staked much of their financial future on the belief that the market will go up, level, or go down only a little. If it crashes, they’ll be living on raman noodles and mowing their own lawns!
And they question my judgement? There’s a huge paradigm shift that needs to take place here and it’s slowly happening. You no longer ‘have to get in before it’s too late,’ and it doesn’t ‘just keep going up.’ I sold for 750k in March and in my mind everything above 450k or so was pure ‘speculative equity’ and not justifyable by any economic formula. I needed to grab that equity before it was too late, like a 40 year old virgin at the end of a hot date.
The sad thing is that people out there actually believe current prices reached their peaks because of supply and demand, rising incomes, low interest rates and because we have nice weather. Not only did they fail to pay attention in economics, but they obviously didn’t even sign up for psychology. The game is over folks. If you haven’t cashed in your lottery ticket or decided not to go for the million yet, enjoy the ride. May this crash be a peaceful one and bring you much wisdom so that you don’t sacrifice your family future in such a foolish way again. Call me when your home is down 40% and I might bail you out, but meanwhile I’m busy fully funding my children’s college plans, fully funding my Roth IRA for two years for my wife and I, and planning to go to the Midwest and buy a house with cash, never to have a mortgage again. I’m using the rest to buy warm clothes!
ParticipantMore great news from San Elijo!
I went to the sales office for the new home community below this week. They are offering 4-2-1 financing (6.7% or so fixed 30 year, they pay 4% the first year, 2% the second year, then you pay the 6.7% rate…). Also, they said to ‘make a reasonable offer.’ What is reasonable? They pointed to a 850k house and said 800 might be. I’m thinking 750 would be too because a friend in the new home business told me that 100k off is reasonable right now. No plans to buy for me though. But look at the sizes of these homes:
Atherton
Richmond American
Single Family Homes
3,399-4,171 Sq. ft.
Priced from the low $800,000sParticipantIt’s stories like this that make me hope for the 50%+ crash that some on this board are predicting. There are more than a few of these greedy folks in San Diego that need to get their back ends handed to them. I’ll take pleasure in their suffering, just as I take pleasure in the house I saw last week in San Marcos that has been for sale 6 months, is discounted, and has a Mercedes in the driveway also for sale. The owner used to boast that her and her ‘Persian’ husband were investors and owned many properties. Her first question to neighbors was always, “So what did that house sell for?”
This is all part of the sorting out process, known as natural selection in the animal kingdom. I’m damn proud of my Midwest sensibilites and it’s cleaer and clearer to me every day that the majority of the folks out here need to learn about the law of the farm:
“As in farming, success in life comes from regular disciplined, daily effort. A farmer cannot expect to reap a bumper crop by being lazy for three months and then “cramming” to catch up. Similarly, the greatest successes in life are built slowly and deliberately through focused, consistent, high-quality efforts on a daily basis. Success comes not from finding an easy shortcut or by taking advantage of one’s fellow man, but from daily, disciplined, focused effort, directed tirelessly toward a desirable goal.”
ParticipantI left a company this year and have 401k money still in that company plan. Your saying that I can actually just move that money to a regular IRA since 401k’s and regular IRA’s are similar in that your income is not taxed upfront? Do I then have to wait a year to move some of that into a Roth IRA? I realize that I can’t move all of it.
September 10, 2006 at 12:44 PM in reply to: Quick Poll: Year of trough & decline from peak to trough #34894Participant2009-2010, 30% drop.
ParticipantIMO you should ignore the 10/5% overpriced rule because it is purely arbitrary. What really matters is how you look compared to other actives, pendings and solds. In this market, if you ‘really’ want to sell, you’d better be significantly below the lowest comparable listing and pendings, and also well below any previous comps.
In your case, if there are 2-3 comparable homes listed at 249-255k and not selling it is clear that you are not the bottom of the barrel. In fact, you are priced 7% higher than your competition. If you truly need to sell, you should consider dropping well below those actives before they decide to go lower and cause you to continue chasing them down. There’s is hope that someone will consider you a great deal and bite.
ParticipantI’ve worked in high technology consulting the past few years and I was shocked at the number of foreign workers at wireless and telecom companies here in San Diego. I’d put the number at over 50%. At a meeting two years ago at the local office of one of the worlds largest cell phone companies (a Finnish company) there were 35 attendees and all of them were from another country. Most were from Pakistan, Bangladesh and India.
Is it the case that there are no qualified Americans willing to take these jobs? Somehow I doubt that, although I don’t have the statistics. If that is the case then we should start offering full rides to anyone in this country who agrees to get an engineering degree and work in the field for at least 5 years. We could pay for this by doing what the entire world thinks we are doing already in the Persian Gulf. We could capture all of the oil fields in the oil rich and less populated southern part of Iraq, and even consider annexing Kuwait and the oil rich parts of Saudi Arabia.
Could it also be the case that companies are bringing these guys in because they’re cheaper?
ParticipantIt will be an era of great job opportunities and low housing prices. Boomer retirement will create millions of vacancies, and the glut of homes will drive down prices.
ParticipantIf your parents need the money for retirement anytime soon, perhaps they should just sell it right now. But in the long run that city will keep growing outward and the land will appreciate. Perhaps not over the course of the next 3 years, but long-term the prospects should be great. But holding it long term wont help your parents take that vacation next year or enjoy their retirement. Maybe they sell 80 acres and pass the other 100 to you, I don’t know. If they want to pass it all to you, then I suggest that you immediately:
-Cover the perimeter with barbed wire, and to the south fortify it with razor wire.
-Establish a defensive position along the most likely avenue of approach to the south, and set up foxholes approximately 15 feet apart.
-Stock pile weapons, food, extra ammo and fuel and see if you can get your hands on some night vision goggles. Buy five pairs, and don’t forget the cold weather gear to include cross country skis.
-Weekly, reherse leaving your day job in the city on moments notice. Maneuver through corn fields if you must, but make sure to use a different route each time.
-Buy a rugged laptop with a wireless data card and monitor piggington.com 24/7. When news breaks that the housing bubble has burst in Minnesota and the nation has fallen into a depression you’ll have nothing to worry about.Invite powayseller to your first rehersal…
ParticipantFound a new city on that land, and before you start building use it for deer hunting.
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