[JES]

Agreed,

The media is generally more concerned about headlines than people, although I have met a few good reporters. I worked media in the military and the most disgusting incident I have ever seen involved the media and the wives of soldiers who were deployed during the war. I caught a reporter from a local TV station saying to his assistant, “See if you can make them cry.” This solidified my already low opinion of the media.

[JES]

The fact that the market has done so well lately gives me even more motivation not to invest in it. What’s really out of favor right now? How about Iraqi Dinars – they are worthless right now and nobody I know would advise investing in them. Perhaps that means we should be buying millions of them.

[JES]

FutureSDguy:

If you live in Shadowridge near Palomar you will never see the open spaces north of the 78, nor the city of Vista downtown area. You simply wont want to go there. Shadowridge is indeed a tract home community, one of the first in North County, so yards are a bit bigger, but homes are older. The city is broke and uninvolved, wheras the city of San Marcos has a very vibrant dynamic going for it, is active and has a budget surplus. This translates into better city services like fire and police, more parks, more community activities and on and on. I lived in each city two years and there is no comparison.

I have said some good things about Vista, but I have to tell you that I would rate it the worst city in North County, even behind Oceanside. There’s not much room for new development, so it is unlikely to get better. Before you buy in Vista, look at areas in San Marcos like Discovery Hills (Close to the 78, but you can also catch Palomar Airport via San Marcos Blvd). Go to the city building in San Marcos and ask about all the development and plans for the city and you will be amazed.

[JES]

I have been looking at relocating out of state, but if it gets low enough I may consider staying. It’s tough to say that now is a good time to buy though since it is likely just going to go lower in the coming months. This board provides us with so much insight that we will likely have a good sense as to when the market is near bottom before the masses believe it, don’t you agree? It is not even necessary that this be predicted so long as we keep our ears to the pavement and recognize it when it happens.

It is interesting because unlike previous cycles, the average person has unbelievable information resources like blogs and useful websites to gauge the market. However, the vast majority of people are not tracking these things to the extent that we are and I believe that this gives those of us who are a great advantage. Contrast this with the stock market where information is absorbed immediately, the market is extremely efficient and therefore there is little opportunity to use information to your advantage. Here we have inefficient, local/regional real estate markets where a minority of people have their hands on the most up to date information.

Even if I move, I plan to keep my ear to the pavement and follow this market. If you take a very long range approach San Diego is a very solid investment. A city like San Marcos, for example, with the university and growth is a great place for a rental property.

[JES]

This trend is being lauded as Latinos finally acheiving the American dream. when in fact many are being suckered into an American nightmare.

[JES]

I’ve been following a neighborhood in San Marcos that seems to be a good gauge of what is going on overall in this market. In June there were 15 homes for sale in this 120 home community, none pending or sold, all priced at comps. In August, still 15 for sale, but one was also for rent and a third to half were reduced. Early September I drove through and there were 12 for sale and 3 for rent. Finally, last week there were only 8 for sale and all were reduced, 3 for rent, all the rest cancelled. One of the 8 had listed in March at 725k and now has 589k as the lower end of the range!

Conclusions:
-Some sellers really want out = huge reductions.
-Other sellers have cancelled and will re-list in Spring.
-Median prices reported this Fall will be ugly. I don’t remember seeing price drops like this in June and July and once these things sell it will really pull things down.

[JES]

The climate in Vista has to be the best in the world as it is past the fog layer and cooler weather of the coast, but just shy of the hotter temps in Escondido and parts of San Marcos. I moved from Carlsbad to Vista to San Marcos, and the weather in Vista was the best.

There is a neighborhood called California Summit that is located directly across from the new Home Depot off of Melrose and is the first neighborhood you hit when you enter Vista from the new Melrose extension. No HOA, no mello-roos, and it ‘officially’ is not Shadowridge. A commute from there to the 5 is 1 minute slower than a commute from Bressi Ranch. You take Melrose 1 mile to Palomar Airport Rd and head west. No 78 involved. An 1800 sqft. home with a big yard built in 1994 is listed there for 529 right now. I bet they’d take high 400s in this market.

[JES]

I partially disagree with the previous posters, and since I used to live in Vista (as well as San Marcos, Temecula, Carlsbad and Encinitas), here is my advice:

-Look at San Marcos. San Marcos is a million times nicer than Vista and there are areas where the prices are comparable. The city of San Marcos has budget surpluses; Vista is dirt poor. Walk into the city building in San Marcos, look around at all the new and planned development and you will be impressed. Not only is there already alot of nice shopping and new communities, but they are planning, get this, a $1 Billion development of the creek area in San Marcos in the next 15-20 years! Discovery Hills homes begin in the low 500s and it is right near this new development area, and the university that has 12,000 students but will grow to 20,000+. Current developments going on within 5 miles of Discovery Hills: An amphitheater at San Elijo (Twin Oaks will open up and you can drive through to Encinitas in 1 year too), an outdoor theater/LA Fitness near the city building, a Nordstroms Rack and others.

-If you must look at Vista, stay south of the 78 and look at Shadowridge. Melrose Dr. is now open at Palomar Airport Rd and you can take that right into Shadowride and avoid the 78. The Vista neighborhoods there are just as conveinant to the 5 as Carlsbad’s Rancho Carillo and Bressi Ranch and 1500 single family homes sell for the low 500s. I lived in that area and it is the best area of Vista. I would never move back though – Vista is not a well run city, they have no money, schools are sub-par and most of the city (Shadowridge and a few other areas excluded)looks like Tijuana.

[JES]

I mapped this and there is a neighborhood right there that directly backs up to huge power lines. Not sure if this is on that street, but based on the map plot it is there and exactly where I saw numerous new builder homes sitting idle years ago during the hot market solely because they all back up to the lines.

Also, the new community of Luminera by Richmond American is selling for the mid to high 600s, which means you can probably get in one that is unsold and being built for the high 500s right now. These homes are 2500-2700 sqft.

[JES]

Powayseller has initiated 11 out of the 15 current forum topics that are listed right now. Perhaps Rich could dedicate a topic area to you called “poway seller’s corner”. That way you can post all you want, others can visit, and if you feel compelled you can also post to other topics.

[JES]

Chris –

I just finished reading a book by Larry Swedroe called The Only Guide to Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need. In the book, he covers Modern Portfolio Theory and goes into great detail about why professionals are no better at guessing on the market than those who just bet on the S&P500 index. He compares picking stocks to random coin flipping, and he actually proves that those who would have just flipped coins would have beat the pros the majority of the time the past 20-30 years.

The book made alot of sense to me. How can portfolio managers, brokers etc. hope to beat a market that is nearly perfectly efficient? And even if there were a chance, the 80% of the market run by institutional investers have thousands of Harvard MBAs on their teams looking at every angle possible. Still, we see money managers profiled in the press and on TV as having beat the market. Interestingly enough, the ones profiled always seem to change, and if you track them over the years you find that you would have been better off just betting on that S&P 500 index.

What insight do you provide that the thousands of Harvard MBAs haven’t already uncovered? Or would you include yourself in the catagory of those who just happen to get lucky on very well researched choices? Not trying to be overly critical, but I really need to understand this. The fact that you have had great success in this contest can be expected as I’m sure all professionals have ups and downs. But I have seen very convincing evidence that over time leaving my money in non managed index funds that are diversified is the best strategy.

[JES]

JG – Where do you find this stuff! Please don’t move the thread as sparkey suggested…it belongs right here.

[JES]

Deleted

[JES]

NOTE FROM MODERATOR:

This thread is now officially closed in order to reduce personal attacks and critiques – the very actions this thread was initiated to stop. Future posters will be ruthlessly attacked personally and professionally until they stop posting.

[JES]

My dream is not to drive a luxury car, but to be the guy who cruises around his 10,000 acre ranch in the Wal Mart jeans driving a pickup truck. I just read the article below about John Walton who died not long ago. He was worth 18 Billion and the 7th richest person in the world, yet lived in a house in what they say is a very average neighborhood in National City. He was also a Medal of Honor and Silver Star receipant in Vietnam!

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20050710/news_1c10walton.html

[Author]

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