[Jazzman]

I’d be interested to know if QE in Europe will have a similar effect on share values in Europe. It looks likely that QE will happen and shares are apparently cheap(er). It also looks very likely the USD will continue to gain strength. €1 = $1.21 at the moment so back to it’s all time average. Apart from that I only hold out hope that one day an passive index fund might look like good value. Finding a 5% net return on RE is a challenge even in sober states, where prices haven’t shot through the roof so much as inventory has all but dried up due to investor activity. RE still holds appeal for me but it takes a lot time to find anything. I put all excess money for household items, replacements, etc into collectables, antiques, and art. Anything from Christmas cards, cutlery, step ladders, tools, furniture, you name it. I figure these will all hold their value better than cash and may even appreciate. You just need a good eye and patience. The other investment is in continually updating my knowledge with courses and reading to gain a better understanding of these uncertain times.

[Jazzman]

You can find a Realtor by posting in the Q&A section of Trulia. Trulia also has discussions about best neighborhoods, schools, etc. as does City-data. But the best website for home searches and quick responses is Redfin in my view. They will recommend inspectors etc. There is no reason why you can’t buy a home remotely. You can do virtual drives around the neighborhood, bird’s eye map views, search for proximity to freeways, shops, natural disasters, all online. All very straightforward. But there are things you won’t see or hear if you don’t visit the property. There are things you’ll overlook even if you do, but a visit minimizes them. Property taxes are higher but prices lower and no silly bubbles. Insurance is high too.

[Jazzman]

Inspection reports can be scary things in their own right. They go into quite a lot of detail and can even make nice homes look like a daunting prospect. That said, if the problems are visibly overwhelming it’s best to walk away. I don’t think there is much you can do if a seller wishes to re-market their home in spite of everything. Can you link to the property?

[Jazzman]

You need to be in the thick of it to become more confused before you get a handle on the complexity that then bamboozles you into picking sides that will undoubtedly confirm you are still wrong. A condition as part of a peace process, however, should include Sean Hannity reporting for six months from within Gaza.

[Jazzman]

[quote=HLS]My guess would be that it’s because you sold yesterday :-)[/quote]
Hehe!

[Jazzman]

The thrust of BG’s argument is that there is enough stability in the SD market due to baby-boomer participation. Since they bought when house prices were lower in real terms, and there are enough of them, the housing market is little affected by being over-valued. This is evidenced by their indifference to the need to sell, down-size, move, low-ball offers, and so on. But I’m not so sure the reasons they are not selling are all to do with “I’m alright Jack” as some just desperately hanging onto perceived wealth due to fear of not having enough to retire on. The question faced by many is how exactly do you capture this wealth, and the answer is the options are limited. So when/if alternative investments become available that story line may change for local buyers, and foreign investors who have comprised as much as 50% of recent sales in many metropolitan areas. On top off all the other points raised about lower sales, increasing inventory, higher anticipated rates, over-valuation, the number of homes that are in some stage of foreclosure in SD is 2,375, which is about the same number of homes that are for sale. My guess is that distressed homes are still at historically high levels, and will continue to play a role for some time yet.

The most logical way to look at the question of whether home prices will contract is to look at what pushed them up, and what happens when those factors are no longer there. The exact reverse trend should follow.

[Jazzman]

[quote=SDowner]
No one seems to have learnt any lesson and using their homes as ATM. I feel I am just being punished for being prudent. Saving instead of spending and getting very little in return. Am I the only one?[/quote]

No, you are not the only one, just a part of a mostly silent minority.

[Jazzman]

You won’t have any problem in Europe. English is spoken increasingly widely and embarrassingly well. Just don’t make that assumption with everyone you meet as it might offend.

Asia:
Malaysia widely spoken
Singapore widely spoken
Philippines probably widely spoken
Taiwan fairly widely spoken
Thailand in tourist areas
Cambodia not so widely spoken
China in major cities
Japan probably OK in tourist areas

Nearly everywhere speaks a bit of English, but native English speakers are not nearly as good at reciprocating.

[Jazzman]

“…the over-bearishness on housing wasn’t as bad as with the economy in general.”

There has been a lot of understandable resentment towards the Great Recession and many still have pent up blame. The “pushback” you received over positive news was possibly that many think of Piggington as a bastion of truth, or refuge from the madness. That doesn’t imply it isn’t, but any sense of a shift away from the ‘crusade’ will get some pushback from the diehards. I’m not one of them, and neither do I believe your views are shaped by being a home owner. I do, however, believe a lot of what we are seeing in the current housing market, whether in SD or further afield, is not healthy. Low inventory, low interest rates, government guarantees, tax credits, over-valuations (in your own words), bidding wars, and investor speculation much of which was symptomatic of the 2006 housing bubble. To me that warrants continuing to look more critically behind the numbers. It is not in any way a criticism of what you do, which I think is great. You are well deserving of all the credit you get. I wouldn’t continue to read your posts after eight years, if I didn’t believe it to be so.

[Jazzman]

[quote=FlyerInHi]jazzman, but lacking fiscal solutions, central bankers have no choice but to push the limits of monetary policy.

Ideally, fiscal and monetary solutions would be complementary.

Growth wise, the USA is doing better because we implemented some limited fiscal stimulus and the Fed moved more decisively with monetary policy.[/quote]
Yes, I agree but QE is Europe is difficult I think mainly because it is far more complex to do. You already have 18 central banks and a more fragmented market. The effect on asset appreciation is also going to be muted since there is generally less participation in financial and housing markets. If it was a no-brainer, bureaucracy notwithstanding, I think we’d have seen it happen by now.

[Jazzman]

[quote=paramount][quote=Jazzman]

The Fed can only influence short term rates. So I guess the answer is, yes. But isn’t that happening anyway? Inflation hovers around 2%, and rates on savings say, 0.02%. So real net interest would equal -1.94% over one year.[/quote]

And that’s what confuses me…I’m not exactly sure about EU economic stats right now, but the EU is the largest economy in the world IIRC.

Assuming the EU was doing some level of QE – what does that say about the state of the EU economy?

I don’t think even Japan did NIR (negative interest rates).[/quote]
I guess it says the economy is doing really poorly. There’s been quite a lot of focus on the political backlash recently. There is an awful lot of anti European Union feeling amongst member nations, which has something to do with immigration as well as the economy. The social problems seem to get magnified when people suffer economically. Using something like monetary easing is not only counter to the Union’s beliefs, but is also very complex to implement because there is no full political union. Both Sweden and Denmark tried negative rates, but with little effect. The Euro has weakened to 1.35 which is a positive, and a strengthening dollar will help their cause. In the mean time, the anti Union movement will probably pick up a pace.

[Jazzman]

[quote=Rich Toscano]Haha, thanks CAR… more recently I’ve been accused of not being bearish enough on housing, because I’m an owner now… so I guess we’ve come full circle. ;-)[/quote]
Owning a home is going to influence how you view things I guess. But was there a turning point when you felt negative news was feeding off itself, or was no longer justified, or was bad for business. I sensed a shift probably around the time of the tax credits, or just after.

[Jazzman]

[quote=Blogstar]

What ever the answer to Mr. Obama’s question is ….I don’t think he is anything but capricious about dealing with it. Effectively capricious that is. Some many conflicting interests that everything effectively gets treated like a joke.

Treating the nurturing of children and killing people like they are joking matters is not good.[/quote]
I actually believe he thinks it is one of his biggest failings. In fact, I believe he even said so. The political will seems to have been there but was trounced by special interests. What is interesting is that now even the NRA has come out against some of its one supporters, probably because it realizes mass slayings are spreading like a disease— “exponentially” as Obama said—and that eventually it is going to backfire on them. Either that or they just ‘get it’ now. The more likely scenario is we won’t get a volte-face from them, but no doubt they’d be happier with a mass slaying every month as opposed to every week. I can’t believe I just said that.

[Jazzman]

Barack Obama on the latest shooting in Oregon. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urOupuUKPNI

“The United States does not have a monopoly on crazy people [laughter]… so what’s the difference?” Misplaced laughter, a President struggling to balance his tenor, a forum discussing parental shortcomings. The truth is sometimes like a wall up close; it’s so big we don’t realize it’s obstructing our view.

[Jazzman]

[quote=ocrenter]

If you actually need to use your gun to protect your liberty, it is already too late.[/quote]

Very good point, but I don’t think all is lost. It’s just the thinking has got some catching up to do. The developed world still hangs on to all kinds of things. Do we need royal families? I guess not if they go around beheading people.

[Author]

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