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Jazzman
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Participant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Jazzman]CA Renter, your comments much appreciated, and your reasons or buying are solid. It’s encouraging to see buyers (myself included) have retained a healthy dose of skepticism. I drop in from time to time as I still think this forum is good.
BG I just paid my property tax bill from Feb to Aug 2013 of $187.55. I wish I knew how to post a copy of the bill on the forum. PM me and I’ll send a copy. Crazy isn’t it? My retired next door neighbor pays even less. It’s a hard life out here in Hawaii :)[/quote]
$750 yr taxes … not bad, Jazzman. How big did you say your condo in HI was again?
And can you keep the Piggs apprised of your search for a house in France? Inquiring minds want to know if you found something there that you will be able to “retire” in :)[/quote]
[img_assist|nid=17188|title=France|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=69]🙂
Participant[quote=earlyretirement][quote=SD Realtor]You have to be more specific Josh. The short answer is no. Conditions are not favorable throughout the county compared to the past few years. Not for investment grade, not for owner occupancy grade. It also goes without saying I am talking about low or middle price tiers, not the 7 figure tiers.
Second, the low rates form a double whammy because investors have nowhere to put money. Do they choose an overbought stock market or an overbought real estate market? So now you have lots of investors buying, some seasoned, many not seasoned with regard to San Diego county and that is a bad recipe to create “favorable” conditions. I saw another home purchased at trustee sale for the same sales price as it was sold on the retail market back in 05. Prices will reach an equilibrium in the short term, maybe by the end of summer maybe the end of next summer, and then return to a much more subdued appreciation rate. Right now it is legging up fast and not a good place for buyers.[/quote]
I totally agree SD Realtor. On both the overbought levels of several investment opportunities out there.
I don’t think anyone should be rushing to buy anything. I think it’s different if you are buying something that plan to live in for the foreseeable future that you can comfortably afford and another to be jumping in on investment properties. Lots seem to be the latter picking up investment properties.
The horrible thing is for savers and retired that are getting pummeled and punished and earning anemic interest rates. I for one can’t wait for interest rates to go back up.[/quote]
I also totally agree with SDR. Nice to hear a Realtor tell it like it is. If you bought income properties a couple of years ago or more, hung onto metals, have a good bond manager, hold foreign currencies, and another passport, you are doing everything you can.
ParticipantPhoenix has produced bigger price gains than anywhere else, but then prices corrected, unlike CA. But is it somewhere you would want to live, and would you want to invest in somewhere you wouldn’t want to live. Maybe? Interestingly, Phoenix is featured in Gary Hustwit’s “Urbanized” documentary, in the context of tract homes and suburban sprawl. With an eye on the future of urban development, it’s well worth a watch.
ParticipantCA Renter, your comments much appreciated, and your reasons or buying are solid. It’s encouraging to see buyers (myself included) have retained a healthy dose of skepticism. I drop in from time to time as I still think this forum is good.
BG I just paid my property tax bill from Feb to Aug 2013 of $187.55. I wish I knew how to post a copy of the bill on the forum. PM me and I’ll send a copy. Crazy isn’t it? My retired next door neighbor pays even less. It’s a hard life out here in Hawaii 🙂
Participant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=earlyretirement]…But I have no respect for someone that calls a bubble, sees prices crash tremendously and then try to say prices will fall forever and end up being a life long perpetual renter.
That just doesn’t make sense to me.[/quote]
I’ve seen a couple of handfuls of posters on this board that fall into this category, ER. Here, a few actually believed that SD County properties in prime coastal zip codes would eventually be “half off” if they just waited long enough, lol.
If you try to knock some sense into them, you are accused of being a “permabull,” a “pollyanna,” a “realtard,” or worse, a “NAR lackey.”
What these wishful-would-be buyers never took into account was that:
-the most desirable properties in the most desirable “coastal enclaves” in CA are frequently held by “the best hands;”
-those “best hands” will only sell when it suits them (and no family member has shown an interest in owning it), not a day sooner, and, maybe never;
-there wasn’t that much of a “run-up” in prices in these areas during the millenium boom as their were in other, lesser-expensive areas because a much higher “price floor” was in existence there BEFORE the millenium boom began;
-the “best hands” who owned properties in these prime areas had no need to “cash out” repeatedly in order to travel, buy vehicles and bling and pay their monthly bills, thus they were never “underwater”;
-there is a high incidence of free-and-clear property owners in these areas;
-there is a low incidence of “underwater property owners” in these areas, and, in any case, a lender would likely have foreclosed on a defaulted property in these locations early on before allowing the trustors to squat too long. (After all, they’re not completely stupid) :=0
-and, a “best hands” owner can afford to list just to “test the market.”
A few Piggs seemed “shocked” when what they thought was a “great offer” they submitted was turned down flat without a counter offer :=0
We haven’t heard from some of these Piggs in awhile who were waiting for bargain-basement prices on the coast. It’s very possible that some decided to suspend their search or ended up moving away.[/quote]
This would be a pretty narrow spectrum of the market. Yes, many wealthy home owners were unscathed, but then so were many less wealthy home owners. But to say the high end was immune is simply not true. There were many +$1m homes that went into foreclosure, and my guess is that very few so-called bears were waiting out in hope of snapping up a McMansion. I’ve been reading and posting here for quite a few years, and generally, posts have been quite informative. The elections were the turning point.If I had a criticism, is might be that the forum tended to be a little cliquey. My first post was met with “he must be out of town”. Another might be that, like all RE forums it ends up being a face-off between protectors of their livelihood, and …the rest.
Facebook has also seen a drop in numbers. So maybe people are waking up to getting a life. That said, I’m out of here.
ParticipantER I think this misses the point about so-called ‘permabears’. I certainly don’t see myself (or many others) as one thing or the other, but I’ve found it useful to improve my short term memory, so a few jogs from those ‘bearish’ corners is a good thing. Furthermore, I don’t recall anyone saying prices will fall forever, but I do recall many saying prices never fall. For those (bears or whatever) who did buy eventually, it was probably out a sense of despair that the game was rigged and there was really nothing anyone could do about it. I personally don’t believe we are out of the woods yet, because of the overwhelming support for home prices and the swathe of foreclosures yet to clear through the system. I don’t think it has anything to do with being down on the economy, but more to do with being cautious. On the other side of the coin, I don’t see bulls either, just those who took a hammering during the downturn now seeking some false sense of vindication. It’s all a bit childish really.
January 13, 2013 at 11:37 PM in reply to: OT: Shootings at San Diego theaters Friday and Saturday. Are you really safe where you are at??? #757659ParticipantHey, steady with the subversive sarcasm. Don’t want to see you guys deported.
Participant12 million homes? We’ll all be buying directly from the Blackstones of this world soon; your home, turn key investments, REITs etc. When foreclosures dry up they’ll be buying retail, and then sell on leases only. Things are looking up.
ParticipantThis is a wonderfully prosaic metaphor for the real estate market. Brilliant!
Participant[quote=AN][quote=Jazzman]Ctr70 the median can prduce results all over the shop. Look at Rich’s comments for condos recently. I’d definitely put more weight on CS[/quote]
Rich’s comments for condos recently is correctly. But I don’t recall him saying the same about median price. He also said CS # are backward looking and stale. Just like what ctr70 said. If you look at $/sq-ft # from 5-6 months ago, that match up with what CS data shows, which is pretty flat. But over the last 5-6 months, price went up a lot. You can click on the link on the bottom right of this site.[/quote]How much is a lot? And what is driving it? How much does it matter what is driving it? I just hear the same pre-bubble drum pulsating just beneath the surface, scarcely able to constrain the ferment as it grasps at it’s old friend ‘greed and stupidity’, discarding cautionary notes and rationale with its usual careless abandon. You know, good luck to you, if that is what you want.
Participant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Jazzman]I agree with livinincali there definitely seems to be time lags produced by buyer and seller perceptions which affects supply and demand…[/quote]
This has always been the case. It will never change so we must live with it. This phenomenon is even inherent in *normal* markets (whatever that’s supposed to mean).[/quote]
Not sure that’s true. One big factor has been the internet and the amount of information freely available. Absent from the heated forums on RE are sellers/homeowners, outnumbered 10:1 buy buyers and fence sitters. The incentive to educate oneself seems to be higher before making a huge financial commitment, than after making it.ParticipantI agree with livinincali there definitely seems to be time lags produced by buyer and seller perceptions which affects supply and demand.
Ctr70 the median can prduce results all over the shop. Look at Rich’s comments for condos recently. I’d definitely put more weight on CS. The question of where is the inventory going to come from, is answered by where did it go? I don’t see why CAR’s seemingly ‘negative’ comments should be dismissed since they have an interest in pushing for a recovery.
While I share your views on the craziness of low rates, I don’t see it as a cause to celebrate.
ParticipantNot sure where the 10-15% price rise is coming from. According to y-o-y Case Shiller index, prices are only up 4.3% http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/12262012_home_prices_case_shiller.asp
Predictions for rapid price rises may be misplaced according to the CAR. “[T]he market won’t be “corrected” until as far off as 2017, said Leslie Appleton-Young, leading economist of the California Association of Realtors”. http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/nov/10/housing-market-update/?page=2#article
If low rates are bringing forward buyers like they did with the tax credit, demand may wobble down the line, and with one in four homes owners in SD underwater, the move up market will continue to suffer.
And not too fast with the declining foreclosures please. The drop may have been largely due to the well publicized ‘mishandling’. NODs actually increased in July in some areas. http://www.nctimes.com/business/housing-foreclosure-rate-falls-but-rise-in-defaults-predicts-clouds/article_97008e26-076a-5500-93f5-c3f845625163.html
I doubt there is enough momentum to produce a strong sustainable recovery. More likely things will just tick along and remain volatile until unemployment improves and all foreclosure are flushed through the system. And by that time both rates and inventory may have normalized, which will put a dampener on appreciation.
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